Obstacles to an Agreement with Iran

In order to understand the political dynamics surrounding the recently signed EU + 3/Iran nuclear agreement, it is important to understand some of the history. The U.S, sanctions regime against Iran began in 1979 shortly after the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis. The initial sanctions were imposed by President Jimmy Carter who froze millions of dollars of Iranian assets in U.S. banks. In the 1980’s, the sanctions were expanded to include weapons and any financial aid to Iran, as the U.S. attempted to aid Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war. The sanctions regime was expanded in 1987 under President Ronald Reagan and again in 1997 under President Bill Clinton. President Obama has magnified the impact of the sanctions by threatening and coercing governments around the world, wishing to do business in the U.S., to abide by the unilateral American sanctions. These sanctions have had an increasingly negative impact on the Iranian economy and on the lives of ordinary Iranians. Circumventing and mitigating the effects of the sanctions has been a major focus of almost all Iranian governments.
The Iranian nuclear program dates back to 1957 when the U.S. signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi’s government under the Atoms for Peace Program. Following the revolution, the Siemens AG contract to build the Bushehr nuclear reactor was terminated. Shortly thereafter the Iranian government announced an ambitious program to construct its own reactor and to master the nuclear fuel cycle. In my opinion, while the nuclear program has been expanded to provide nuclear power and medical isotopes, its primary purpose has been to accumulate bargaining chips in order get the sanctions removed and reduced and to get Iran reintegrated into the international community. As the West has rebuffed all Iranian efforts at reintegration, the chips have continued to accumulate. It is not a nuclear weapon that concerns the U.S. and its allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, but the reintegration of Iran into the global economy.
Iran is strategically located astride the Straits of Hormuz and is a buffer state between the Middle East and Central Asia. With its large (70mm), well-educated young population, relatively stable governance, and substantial potential for oil and gas production, Iran is much better positioned than its neighbors to project political and economic power, both within the region and globally. It is this potential to change the status quo in the region that most worries Iran’s adversaries. The nuclear weapons issue is a politically powerful red herring to cover the true concerns.
During the Geneva talks, Israel and Saudi Arabia spent much money, printers ink and bombast to prevent the interim agreement from being signed. Having failed in that effort, they are now rolling out the political big guns in Washington in order shoot down any final comprehensive deal that will result in rapprochement with Iran. Already the Obama administration is showing signs of backing away from any final status agreement. (See here and here.) While it is in America’s interest to resolve the conflict with Iran diplomatically, it is unclear to me whether or not Obama, who sees every foreign policy issue through a lens of domestic politics, will be able to summon the political will to deliver on the promise of the Geneva agreement.

Waiting for the Messiah

Since Secretary of State John Kerry kicked off the latest round of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority designed to reach a two state solution to the Israel/Palestine situation, we have heard next to nothing about what is happening. This could be either good news or bad news. It is possible (although unlikely) that progress is being made behind the scene in substantive negotiations that are best done out of the media spotlight. A more likely scenario is that nothing is happening and all sides are concerned about the potential for unrest that would accompany the final demise of the two state solution.

Politicians on all sides have been declaring that “the window for a two state solution will close within a year” for the last 15 years. This dire prediction has become as common as Israel’s 20 year prediction that, absent a military attack, Iran will have a nuclear weapon within 6 months. While an Iranian nuclear weapon would constitute a serious threat to Israel, the Reut Institute, an Israeli think tank that advises Israeli leaders on strategic issues, has concluded that the biggest treat to Israeli national security is “one man one vote”. In a recent report Reut stated, “Annexation of the Palestinian people into Israel would compromise Israel’s Jewish majority, while continued control of the Palestinian population may jeopardize Israel’s democracy and long-term legitimacy” (See here) This warning has been resisted by most Israelis, since they find the status quo of occupation and separation to be completely sustainable.

Seven years ago, when I first wrote about a single state solution, I felt the need to label my posts “A Completely Absurd Idea”. {See here, here, and here) Today the one bi-national state can now be discussed in polite company. Young people in Palestine have completely gone to one state-ism. At a Sabeel conference last week, I heard a Palestinian leader describe his conversations with his young daughters. One daughter is a second year chemical engineering major at M.I.T. and the other is a sophomore at the Ramallah Friends School. They said, “Dad, 1948 was like a hundred 9/11’s and you and grandpa reacted like anyone would. First you tried fighting (we’re not very good fighters), then you tried non-violent resistance, then you tried negotiating and then you tried going to the UN. Dad, nothing worked. We are still occupied. Why don’t we just say to the Israelis, OK you win. You get it all. The land, the water, the oil and gas in Gaza and, by the way, you also get us. I understand that you have free healthcare. Where do I pick up my card? I would also like your free education. And where do I go to vote?”

The reality is that we already have a single state. The only question is what kind of a state it will be. Will it be an apartheid state under occupation, an ethnically cleansed Jewish state or a bi-national state with equal rights for all? Waiting for two states is like the Jewish view of waiting for the Messiah. He may come someday, but I am not holding my breath.

Technorati Tags: Israel,Palestine,Peace Process

Kicking the Can Again

This week, after six trips to the Middle East and several bouts of shuttle diplomacy, Secretary of State John Kerry announced a new round of Israeli/Palestinian “peace talks”. He stated at the kick off, “I firmly believe that these leaders can make peace.” This was accomplished at great personnel sacrifice as his wife Teresa is seriously ill. My reaction upon hearing this news was “What is he thinking?” What has changed during the last four years of stalemate to make it worthwhile to expend so much personal effort and political capital on a process that has almost no chance of success?

The same regional players are still in place. The Palestinians are still divided between the Fatah led Palestinian Authority (PA) government in Ramallah and the Hamas led government in the Gaza strip. The PA is still run by the same dysfunctional, corrupt, unelected, unrepresentative old men who have been in place since the western powers overthrew the elected Hamas government in 2006. Hamas, which represents 1.4 mm Palestinians in the Gaza strip, is not invited to the party.

On the Israeli side the same Netanyahu led right wing, settler dominated government is still in place. If anything it has become even more right wing since the last elections with the addition of the Jewish Home Party to the governing coalition. JHP’s leader Naftali Bennett was recently quoted as advocating killing suspected militants rather than bringing them to trial; saying “If you catch terrorists, you have to simply kill them” and “I’ve killed lots of Arabs in my life – and there’s no problem with that.” (See here and here)

The Obama administration, in a move seemingly designed to insure failure, appointed former Ambassador to Israel, former AIPAC executive, former Executive Director of the pro-Israel think tank Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Martin Indyk as its Middle East mediator. Indyk makes former mediator Dennis Ross (frequently called “Israel’s lawyer”) look positively unbiased in contrast. In a presentation that I heard by Indyk a few years ago, he couldn’t use the word “Palestinian” without appending the word “terrorist” to it.

The only possible objective that I can see for this declared 9 month negotiation process is to move the process past this year’s United Nations session. The U.S. can claim that the Palestinian State should not join the International Criminal Court (Israel’s worst nightmare) since there is an ongoing American sponsored negotiation process. This would be in line with the strategy (such as it is) of kicking the can down the road and hoping for the best. In general talking is better than shooting. In this case, failed talks may result in shooting.

Technorati Tags: Israel,Palestine,Peace Process,John Kerry

Tom Friedman’s Pipe Dream

This week NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman published an op-ed piece in which he bemoaned the fact that Israel was increasingly becoming an isolated pariah state. His example of the trend of “international delegitimization closing in on Israel” was the decision by Stephen Hawking, a renowned British physicist, cosmologist and author, to refuse to attend the fifth annual Israeli Presidential Conference “based on advice from Palestinian academics that he should respect the boycott” of Israel because of the West Bank occupation.
His recommended solution was for Israel to partner with the current illegitimate Palestinian government in Ramallah to create a Palestinian state by ceding “most of the West Bank and Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem” while “keeping its forces on the Jordan River.
It is ironic that on the same day that Mr. Friedman published his recommendation, the Israeli public expressed their opinion through a Jerusalem Post poll. The Post reported that “74% say they reject the idea of a Palestinian capital in any portion of Jerusalem, with the implication being that they prefer a united Jerusalem. Only 15% say they would support a divided plan for the city, whereby Israel would relinquish sovereignty over some eastern portions of the city to allow for a Palestinian capital there.” From the perspective of the average Israeli citizen, Mt. Friedman’s proposal is dead on arrival. Remember, Israel is a democracy and the voters get to call the shots.
It is also ironic that on the same day a Palestinian friend of mine posted an updated map of the West Bank showing settlements, barriers and closed military zones. If anybody can create a Palestinian state out of this, they are smarter than I am.
Good luck to Secretary of State John Kerry in his quest for a two state solution.

Technorati Tags: Israel,Palestine,Tom Friedman

Recognizing a New Reality

Having recently returned from three weeks in Israel/Palestine I am struck by the changes on the ground since I last visited. The Jewish settlements have become much more ubiquitous and are now built alongside and between Arab towns. The Jewish settlements that were once only a group of caravans with no services and utilities have now developed into fully functional towns. The major settlement blocs have expanded to the point that they border and surround Palestinian towns. As a result of this development and expansion Jews and Arabs now live alongside each other in separate communities behind walls and barbwire fences. This intermingling of Jewish settlements and Arab towns now means that Israelis and Palestinians use many of the same roads. There are no longer enough bypass roads to completely separate Jews and Arabs. The result has been that many of the roads in the West Bank have been upgraded and many of the checkpoints are no longer manned. In Palestinian cities such as Jenin and Nablus one sees, despite the ominous warnings on the

red signs, a number Arab Israeli shoppers. Some tours are now being offered for Israeli Jews to visit the Ramallah, the seat of government for the Palestinian Authority.

Despite the efforts of the Israeli government to maintain an apartheid state, the reality on the ground may be gradually breaking this down. I found Jews and Arabs on both sides of the wall beginning to recognize that the “two state solution” is no longer possible and that it is now becoming OK to talk about a bi-national state in polite company. Whether this state is “Palreal” or “Isrestine”, it is becoming the way forward. Even western media outlets are beginning to examine this option. (See here)

As usual the politicians are late to recognize the reality on the ground. The first step in addressing any problem is to recognize the brutal reality. Denying this reality will get us nowhere. Government leaders on all sides need to begin to prepare their citizens for the fact that they will need to learn to live alongside their neighbors in peace. Will the Jews who now have a privileged position like this reality? No! Did the whites in South Africa want to give up their privileged position? No! Did the whites in the American South want to give up “Jim Crow”? No! The changes just had to happen.

Currently leaders are prone to say that the “two state solution” is on “life support”. What they fail to recognize is that the patient is already dead. Leaders need to emphasize what brings Palestinians and Jews together, language, culture and religious traditions, rather than what divides them. The brutal reality is that Zionism has to go and be replaced by justice, democracy and equal rights.
Photo by Brooks Cato

After the Election:What Now?

After months of campaign wrangling, the presidential election is now behind us and we are left with the question: What will US Middle East policy look like going forward? Since the election campaign was largely devoid of any discussion or debate on policy options, pundits are left to speculate based on a combination of hope, realities and educated guesses. Some things are clear. The major winner from the election outcome was Nate Silver, the NY Times statistics blogger, (See here) who got the results exactly right. (Close, but never in doubt.) The major loser was Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who bet big time on the wrong horse. On everything else we can only speculate and wait and see what will happen. In general, not much is likely to change.

The Syrian civil war drags on with the death toll on all sides rising with each passing day. Obama has little choice but to support the rebels rhetorically and with some modest aid, while relying on the wealthy Gulf States to do the heavy lifting of arming the rebels. There is no mood in the US to get entangled in another Middle East ground conflict. Iran and its allies will continue to support the Assad regime. Any negotiated settlement would require engagement with Iran. This would acknowledge Iran’s role as a regional player and is an anathema to Washington’s foreign policy wizards. The biggest losers will be the Syrian people.

The so called “Arab Awakening” will likely continue on its own path with the US having little influence on the outcomes. The road to functioning democracies in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya will be bumpy with an ending that is not likely to be friendly to US ambitions for regional control. There is not much that the US can do to influence the ending except to continue to support them and hope for the best. Hopefully, Congress will not mess it up.

As the “Arab Awakening” spreads to authoritarian US allies in the Gulf region and Jordan, the US will face some uncomfortable choices. With US bases in place and the US requiring Arab support for its anti-Iran policies, the policy has been to offer soft encouragement for reform, but no direct regime criticism. As the regimes crack down more aggressively on dissidents, (See here and here) this policy may become more untenable. Again, I expect that the US will continue current policies and hope for the best.

In Israel/Palestine, Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost all credibility with the Obama administration. His antics have left him on the outside looking in. However, I believe that Obama has realized that a “two state solution” is no longer possible. Given Israeli intransigence and control of Congress, and Palestinian divisions, there is not much that he can do to change the situation. Again, he will continue to be disengaged and hope for the best.

Iran probably offers the best opportunity for improvement. The Iranians have signaled their willingness to compromise by softening their rhetoric, transferring some of their 20% enriched uranium to civilian uses and offering to suspend enrichment to higher levels. (See here) If the US responds in-kind, the upcoming talks may bear some fruit. The Iranians, however, will not move without some reduction in sanctions. Given that Congress controls the sanctions regime, Obama will have little ability to negotiate in good faith on sanctions. Promising to consider reducing sanctions at some time in the future will not cut it.

All of this ignoring the problems and hoping for the best, reminds me of the Bill Clinton administration when President Clinton told a State Department official that he was not particularly interested in foreign policy issues because none of his voters were interested. The response was “Sometimes, Mr. President, foreign policy issues find you.” Usually at the most inopportune time.

 

Technorati Tags: Middle East,Election,Obama

Peace Not Apartheid

In 2006 Former President Jimmy Carter published a book on the situation in Israel/Palestine entitled “Peace Not Apartheid”. In the book Carter argued that all parties to the situation in Israel/Palestine must take immediate steps to implement the Oslo Process designed to create two states living alongside each other in peace. Failing this, he argued, the result would be a land completely controlled by Israel with limited or no rights for its Palestinian residents. Carter’s use of the dreaded “A” word in the title caused considerable controversy at the time. As time has passed, with no progress towards a viable “two state solution”, Carter is beginning to look prescient.

Many observers, this one included, for a number of years have said that the day of the “two state solution” had come and gone. (See here) With over 500,000 Jews living on the Palestinian side of the green line and 1.5 mm Palestinians living on the Israeli side of the green line, it is impossible to unscramble the egg. The location of settlements and Jewish only roads on the West Bank make a viable Palestinian state impossible. As the situation has worsened over the years, the concept of a single state is becoming a more mainstream position. Veteran Israeli journalist Nahum Barnea recently wrote, “Everybody knows how this will end. There will be a bi-national [state]”. The only remaining question is, what kind of a state it will be. Will it be a bi-national state with equal rights for all of its citizens? Will it be a state ethnically cleansed of its Palestinian citizens? Or will it be an apartheid state where only Jewish citizens have complete rights of citizenship?

Some on the far right fringe in Israel advocate for an ethnically cleansed state. They say “Jordan is the Palestinian state”. It is unlikely that even Israel’s most ardent backers in the U.S. could support this outcome.

What appears to be more acceptable, at least in Israel, is an apartheid state. A recent poll commissioned by the Israeli paper Haaretz (See here) reported that 58% of Israeli Jews believe that Israel already practices apartheid against Palestinians. Two thirds believe that the 2.5 mm Palestinians living on the West Bank should be denied the right to vote. 33% say Palestinians living within Israel proper should be denied the right to vote. 75% are in favor of segregated roads. 60% say Jews should be given preference in government jobs and 50% say Jewish citizens should be treated better than Arabs.

Since Israel is a democracy, the views of its citizens are generally translated into government policies. It is likely that, in next year’s elections, the current right wing government will be even more solidified and Israel will move even further on the path to a bi-national apartheid state. The question for the Americans will be can they sustain their unbending support for Israeli policies in the face of this outcome.

Technorati Tags: Israel,Palestine,Apartheid

I Quit

It appears as though President Obama has largely given up on making any progress towards resolving the difficult issues in Israel/Palestine. After a much publicized start which included the appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy and Obama’s Cairo speech to the Arab and Muslim worlds, the whole situation has deteriorated into a stalemate.

In a recent Time magazine interview Obama acknowledged that he had overestimated his ability to get the Israelis and Palestinians to move the peace process forward. He should have realized that to achieve any results, he was going to have to spend a lot of political capital to take on the Israel lobby in the US.

Once Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu realized that he had the upper hand, he stonewalled Obama on every initiative. When it was rumored that Obama would send a letter to the parties outlining a framework for a settlement, Netanyahu immediately preempted it by declaring that Jerusalem would eternally be part of Israel and that Israel would retain control over the border between any Palestinian state and Jordan. Last week’s last ditch effort by George Mitchell to rescue the situation was rebuffed by all parties.

It has long been clear to many observers, this one included, that a two state solution is no longer possible and a single state in Palestine for all its citizens will be the only way out. As Israeli activist Jeff Halper recently pointed out to me, “You and I can say a single state is the best solution, but only the Palestinians can decide that it is what they want”. Until they decide, there is little that the international community can do to help.

Israel is more being seen, not as the only democracy in the Middle East, but as the only apartheid state in the world. In response to this, the “Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions” (BDS) movement to pressure Israel to change is growing, particularly in Europe. The US, as it was in South Africa, will be late to the party. The fact that only 9 minutes of a 70 minute State of the Union address was devoted to foreign relations shows that the US is turning inward. Someone else will have to take the lead.

Make me do it

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s stonewalling of US demands that he freeze all settlement activity, loosen the blockade of Gaza and improve conditions on the ground in the West Bank has shown that the US has few options for applying pressure on Israel.

The release of the Goldstone Report which outlined allegations of war crimes committed by Hamas and Israel during the 2008 war in Gaza was an opportunity for the US to exert pressure in a way that did not require Congressional action. The US could have signaled its displeasure by abstaining or voting for UN Human Rights Committee approval of the report. Instead, the US intensely lobbied its European allies and the Palestinian Authority to prevent approval. Predictably, Israel and what Rabbi Michael Lerner calls its “ethical cretin” allies attacked the report on all fronts.

Many who support a just solution to the Israel/Palestine problem have called this just another example US political leaders caving in to the Israel Lobby. There may, however, be another explanation.

The Obama administration is engaged in a major political battle over healthcare reform. In this battle every Democratic vote counts. Congressmen and Senators, such as Steny Hoyer, Howard Berman, Evan Bayh and Chris Dodd, who take their marching orders from AIPAC, would not hesitate to torpedo healthcare reform to punish Obama for pressuring Israel. Obama may have been trying to buy time until after the healthcare reform issue is settled.

During the campaign, then candidate, Obama was asked during a small fundraising event in NJ if it were possible to resolve the Israel/Palestine issue without pressuring Israel by reducing or cutting off financial aid. In a manner reminiscent of the parable style of Jesus, Obama answered the question by telling this story.

At the beginning of WW II A. Philip Randolph, President of the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters, lobbied FDR to promote equal employment opportunities. At the end of the meeting, FDR said “You have persuaded me; I agree with you. Now make me do it”. Randolph responded by organizing a march on Washington and FDR issued Executive Order 8802 which banned discrimination in defense industries and established the Fair Employment Practices Committee.

When the issue of pressure on Israel resurfaces in the spring there may be an opportunity to “Make Obama do it”.

Freezing a Conflict in August

Once the uprising in Iran, following the disputed elections, was brutally repressed by the conservative regime, the situation in the Middle East has become reasonably quiet. With respect to the efforts to resolve the intractable Israeli/Arab conflict over Palestine not much seems to be happening. Given Special Envoy George Mitchell’s penchant for quiet diplomacy, something may be happening behind the scenes. More likely nothing seems to be happening because nothing is happening.
Senator Mitchell has met numerous times with Israelis regarding the US demand for a settlement freeze and with Palestinian and other Arab leaders regarding possible steps toward a normalization of relations with Israel. Neither of these tracks is going anywhere. Israel has no interest in stopping its colonization of the West Bank and East Jerusalem and doesn’t particularly care about normalized relations as they don’t see themselves as part of the Middle East. The Arabs feel as though they bought the settlement freeze in Oslo and have no interest in buying it again.
In my opinion the Obama administration has finally realized that there is no room for a two state solution in which Israeli Jews and Palestinians live alongside each other in peace. The maximum that Israel will give is less than the minimum than the Palestinians can accept.
Israel has no incentive to compromise further. Their overwhelming military power supported by the US and their demonstrated willingness to use it to crush resistance has consolidated the occupation and made Israel largely secure. Netanyahu’s vision of a “Palestinian state” that consists of isolated self governing enclaves in which the PA manages day to day issues and Israel controls borders, air space, security, water, infrastructure and access is largely in place. As Netanyahu says “Call it a state if you will.”
This situation not only serves Israel’s desire for space for settlement growth, but also the need for the Fatah led PA for a continued flow of US/European aid flowing through the PA that can be skimmed for personnel gain.
The inability of the Obama administration to get Israel to accede to their demand for a settlement freeze has demonstrated that there is no political will in the US to constrain Netanyahu from implementing his vision. We are moving into a “frozen conflict” mode. The danger of frozen conflicts is that they have a tendency to thaw periodically.

The gift that keeps on giving

Following the brutal crackdown by the Iranian government on pro-reform demonstrators, an air of relative calm and melancholy appears to have settled over Iranian cities. (Some thoughts on this from an Iranian are here.) What the ultimate outcome of the events of the past month will be, only time will tell. “Victorious” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has returned to the public stage although with a somewhat more subdued message.
Israel’s hard-line politicians and their neo-conservative and neo-liberal supporters in the US, who advocate for a policy of economic and military confrontation with Iran, must be breathing a sigh of relief. For them Ahmadinejad is the gift that keeps on giving. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been trying to persuade the Obama administration that Iran is the highest priority in the Middle East and the Israeli/Palestinian issue should be put on the back burner. Just when American pressure on freezing Israeli settlements was becoming intense, along comes Ahmadinejad to save the day.
For those advocating confrontation with Iran, it is important to have a public foil in power in Iran. Just as George W. Bush was an easy target for the hardliners in Iran, Ahmadinejad also provides an easy target. Bellicose rhetoric in the west helps provide support for hard-liners in Iran and undercuts the reformists who want dialogue with the west. Neo-conservatives and neo-liberals in the US have stepped up to help Netanyahu change the subject.
John “bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran” McCain criticized Obama for not using more confrontational rhetoric regarding the suppression of peaceful demonstrators. Neo-con spokesperson William Kristol has criticized Obama for being “resolutely irresolute” with respect to confrontation with Iran. Reverting to the Bush administration’s “carrot and stick” approach, Hilary “I will obliterate Iran” Clinton has called for “even stricter sanctions on Iran to try to change the behavior of the regime". Former Iran special envoy, now in the White House, Dennis Ross has called for a brief 90 day diplomatic effort followed by force, arguing that “the use of force against Iran will look dramatically different should good faith, direct negotiations be tried and fail.”
All of this was modest compared to “loose lips” Joe “I am a Zionist” Biden’s statement that the US would not stop Israel from attacking Iran. This may have been a case of opening his mouth without engaging his brain so typical of Biden. The next day Obama said that the US has “absolutely not” given Israel a green light to attack Iran.
The denial, however, was lost in Iran as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei used Biden’s statement to rally his divided people against “meddling” western leaders. Since the vast majority of Iranians support a peaceful nuclear program, the only way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons capability is to persuade them that they don’t need nuclear weapons and that such development is not in their national interest. This will require engagement, compromise and sustained diplomacy. The rhetoric of confrontation will not get the job done.

The Iranian Conundrum

Most of the ink being spilled this week regarding the Middle East situation involved the disagreements between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minster Netanyahu regarding ongoing construction of Jewish colonies in the occupied West Bank. Obama’s policy was clearly defined by Secretary of State Hilary Clinton when she said “He wants to see a stop to settlements — not some settlements, not outposts, not ‘natural growth’ exceptions.” Netanyahu responded by saying that construction would continue in existing settlements.
Little is being said about Iran. Netanyahu came to Washington with a plan to divert attention from Israel/Palestine to the Iranian threat. Obama demurred and indicated that he would continue on a path of dialogue and diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic. He said that he felt that progress on the Israeli/Palestinian front would help with progress on the Iranian front.
The problem is what Obama expects as an outcome from the dialogue and engagement. It appears that his goal is a continuation of the Bush administration policy of using “crippling sanctions” to force Iran to abandon its nuclear development program. Hilary Clinton has made it clear on several occasions that the purpose of negotiations is to help rally a coalition to impose tougher sanctions on Iran. Special Envoy on Iran Dennis Ross is quoted in an upcoming book by David Makovsky, a fellow at the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as saying that the United States will not make progress towards peace in the Middle East with the Obama administration’s new plan. The idea that there was linkage between the Israel/Palestine issue and the Iranian issue was a myth. (If he doesn’t agree with the plan can he be effective in implementing it?) All this begs the question “Are ‘crippling sanctions’ even possible?”
While reformist Iranian presidential candidates have indicated openness to negotiations, even the moderates defend Iran’s right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy. They are willing to talk about how to insure that there isn’t a nuclear weapons program. This is an opening for constructive dialogue on how to reconcile the national interests of all parties. In my experience, anything beyond this is a political non-starter for Iranian politicians. Most average people on the street in Iran told me that they support Iran’s effort to develop peaceful nuclear energy.
This policy of isolation of Iran has failed before under Bill Clinton and Bush 43 and it is doomed to fail again. Unfortunately the failure on the Iranian front will have negative consequences for the Israel/Palestine process which only now is beginning to show some promise.

Netanyahu and Obama

This week President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met for the first time as leaders of their respective countries. It is clear that the goals of the two countries are different. The US national interest requires a stable, peaceful region that provides access to energy at a reasonable price. Israel sees its national interest as requiring the maintenance of its position as a regional superpower. Anytime a neighbor has threatened this position, they have attempted to destabilize them. This was accomplished successfully in Iraq with the help of the US Bush administration and their neo-con allies. Iran has now become the center of attention.
Netanyahu came to Washington with the objective of changing the focus of the conversation from the Israeli/Palestinian conflict to the Iranian threat. This didn’t happen. The two leaders largely talked past each other. When Obama was asked about Netanyahu’s statement that there was linkage between solving the Iranian problem and solving the Israeli/Palestinian problem, Obama said that he thought the linkage ran in the other direction.
Netanyahu refused to use the words “Palestinian state” stating “I did not say two states for two people”.
Israel’s most important national security asset is its relationship with the US. They can not afford to anger the US president. In my opinion he will eventually agree to a “settlement freeze” and a “Palestinian state”. However, what Netanyahu means by this is completely different from what the Palestinians expect. Under his version of the settlement freeze, Israel will continue to demolish Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem and allow “natural growth” of the settlements. The Likud/Netanyahu version of a “Palestinian state” is one in which the Jordan River is the eastern border of Israel and the “Palestinian state” is made up of self governing enclaves and in which Israel controls borders, access, security and water.
This may be a tough sell. The reality in Washington has changed. The games of wink and nod, say one thing and do another, that were the hallmark of the Bush administration are over. My sources tell me that the Obama administration is preparing to issue its own version of the end game and that this plan is being coordinated with Arab leaders and not the Israelis. It may be announced during Obama’s speech to the Arab world from Cairo on June 6. If true, this has big implications for Netanyahu’s weak right wing governing coalition and may force new elections in Israel where the only issue is “Do we want peace?”.
Stay tuned.

Is anything happening

US Middle East envoy George Mitchell was back in the region last week. After a high profile kickoff to Middle East diplomacy featuring visits to the region by Mitchell and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, things have been pretty quiet on the Washington front.
Given the priority of dealing with the economic crisis and Senator Mitchell’s preference for quiet diplomacy, this is not at all surprising. I have never been a big fan of diplomacy by pronouncement and press conference that was the hallmark of the Bush administration. Soon the Obama administration will need to make clear the policies that it will put forward to deal with the Palestine question, which is the cornerstone for progress on all other issues in the region.
When I was last in the region in November, there were great expectations that a more balanced US policy would lead to progress in reaching a peace agreement. Regional leaders understood that Obama had bigger priorities to deal with, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and the economy, which would occupy his attention. However, this window of opportunity will not remain open forever.
There certainly is a lot of disagreement within the administration about what sort of policy should emerge. On one side you have Dennis Ross (an incrementalist and “Israel’s lawyer”), Rahm Emmanuel (“our man in the White House” according to his Zionist father) and VP Joe (I am a Zionist) Biden and on the other side George Mitchell (meticulously even handed) and National Security Advisor James Jones.
Among the thorny issues are how to deal with the right wing Israeli government of Likud Party leader Binyamin Netanyahu and what sort of relationship to have with Hamas. Despite encouragement by outside experts and former diplomats to engage with Hamas, thus far the Obama administration has continued the Bush policy of refusing to deal with Hamas unless they recognize Israel as a Jewish state, endorse previous agreements and renounce violence. This policy has always been a non starter.
Many Israelis are concerned about a confrontation between Netanyahu and the Obama administration over efforts to establish a Palestinian state. (Ha’aretz article “Obama team readying for confrontation with Netanyahu” is here)


The Likud position on a Palestinian state is clear from its platform.



The Jewish communities in Judea, Samaria and Gaza are the realization of Zionist values. Settlement of the land is a clear expression of the unassailable right of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel and constitutes an important asset in the defense of the vital interests of the State of Israel. The Likud will continue to strengthen and develop these communities and will prevent their uprooting.



The Government of Israel flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan River. The Palestinians can run their lives freely in the framework of self-rule, but not as an independent and sovereign state. Thus, for example, in matters of foreign affairs, security, immigration and ecology, their activity shall be limited in accordance with imperatives of Israel's existence, security and national needs.



The Jordan Valley and the territories that dominate it shall be under Israeli sovereignty. The Jordan River will be the permanent eastern border of the State of Israel. The Kingdom of Jordan is a desirable partner in the permanent status arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians in matters that will be agreed upon.



Perhaps if we are going to refuse to deal with democratically elected governments who refuse to formally recognize a two state solution, we should include Israel on the list along with Hamas.

Whither the wall

When Israel was formed in 1948 the basic concept was partition of the British mandate of Palestine between Arabs and Jews. This paradigm has been the basis for the current concept of a “two state solution”.
When, in 2003, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to begin construction of the security fence/wall between Israel and the West Bank following the suicide attacks of the 2nd Intifada, his stated goal was to prevent Palestinian suicide bombers from entering Israel. Palestinians claimed that it was intended to create de-facto borders for Israel and was a land grab. Since that time, despite International Court of Justice rulings that the wall was illegal, construction has continued apace.
One thing that I did notice during my most recent visit to the West Bank, however, was the lack of construction activity. The wall/fence was originally designated a “security barrier”. It is clear that the wall/fence no longer serves a security purpose. There is so much traffic through the check points that security checks are cursory at best.
Even Israelis have begun to call it the “separation barrier”. The wall/fence, however, has also ceased to function as a separation barrier and has become irrelevant. The route of the barrier which extends deeply into the West Bank has isolated thousands of West Bank Palestinians on the western/Israeli side of the barrier. They are not Israeli citizens, do not have Israeli ID cards and are separated from their land and villages. In total there are now over 1.5 million Palestinians on the western/Israeli side of the wall.
Because of continuing construction of Jewish colonies, there are now over 480,000 Jews in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. Estimates are that over 80,000 of these are on the eastern/Palestinian side of the barrier.
Any concept of partition or separation of these two peoples no longer works. The two peoples are so interconnected that only a single society is now possible. Any two state solution would require the relocation thousands of Jews and Palestinians, something that is not politically feasible for either party. Israeli/US policies of the last 40 years and demographic changes have made a democratic Jewish state in Palestine impossible.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been castigated for saying that “Israel will be wiped off the face of the map”. (A better translation is “The Zionist entity in Jerusalem will disappear from the pages of history”.) What hasn’t been reported in western media is his subsequent statement that “We don’t need to do anything. They will do it to themselves”.
It is time for a new paradigm.

A changing Middle East landscape

As I write this, President Obama is winding up his first major overseas trip to Europe. The trip began with a flurry of summits including the G20, the European Union and NATO with meetings with various heads of state sandwiched in between. By in large he came away from these meetings with optimistic press releases, but little in the way of European commitments on the issues that were at the top of his agenda such as greater European assistance in Afghanistan and increased economic stimulus spending..
The final stop on the trip in Turkey has the potential to be more productive. This is the latest in a series of events, which began during his inaugural address and continued with his al Arabiya interview, designed to reach out to the Muslim world. Judging from the response in the Middle Eastern media he seems to be having some success.
Turkey, by virtue of its geographic location at the confluence of a number American foreign policy interests and its status as a secular democracy governed by the modestly Islamist AK party, is uniquely positioned to be helpful with such issues as Russia, Iran, Syria and Israel/Palestine. Maybe the message to Europe is “If you won’t help, maybe there is someone else who will”.
The question is how Israel will react to US efforts to improve relations with Arab and other Muslim countries. Israeli media pundits have not been all that happy. (An example “Appeasing Child Killers” is here)
It is hard to see how the US can be part of an attack on Iran at the same time it is conducting discussions aimed at stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan. This leaves Israel to go it alone and for incoming Prime Minister Netanyahu this is job one.
I used to think that we would have advance warning of an Israeli attack on Iran by virtue of the fact that they would have to attack Lebanon first in order to neutralize Hezbollah and their massive missile arsenal which is capable of inflicting enormous damage on Israeli population centers. It now appears that Israel has chosen to begin to prepare the population to cope with large retaliatory attacks by Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. (This story “IDF planning largest-ever drill to prepare Israel for war” is here)
Calculations like this don’t seem to make much sense, but I guess, by now, we should be used to people in this region starting wars in the hope that something good will come out of them.

The Gaza War and Natural Gas

When Israel attacked Gaza late last year its objectives were always a bit murky. As with the US invasion of Iraq the objectives seemed to change as the war went along. Two weeks after the outbreak of hostilities the Israeli government was still mulling its objectives.
The stated objectives were to stop Hamas rocket fire into Israel, to stop smuggling from Egypt into Gaza and to restore the deterrent strength of the IDF. It was clear from the beginning that none of these could be accomplished with a short term incursion into Gaza. So what was going on?
As with most conflicts in this region the answer is “oil” or in this case natural gas.
In 2000, British Gas Group (BG) discovered proven gas reserves of at least 1.3 trillion cubic feet beneath Gazan territorial waters worth nearly $4 billion. A consortium which includes BG and the Palestinian Investment Fund (PIF), a joint venture between the Palestinian Authority and wealthy Palestinian businessmen was formed to develop the resource. The agreement would have resulted in the sale of gas to Israel.
Ariel Sharon’s unilateral withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza in 2005 and the Hamas victory in Palestinian elections in 2006 threw the whole plan into disarray. The Israeli withdrawal made any Israeli legal claims to the resource suspect and Hamas control of the PA would result in funds from Israel reaching Hamas and Gaza and would undermine Israel’s policies toward Hamas.
The only remaining choices for Israel were to either completely destroy Hamas or, failing that, to totally destroy the infrastructure in Gaza in order to prevent a Hamas led government from developing the resource. The enormous destruction of infrastructure during the war and the blockade of all materials necessary to rebuild seems to have accomplished the objective.
Some sources believe that Israel is already “slant drilling” from their adjacent gas fields into the Palestinian fields. It is difficult to verify such claims as Israel has declared this a “closed military area”.
If one is asked a question about why something is happening in the Middle East most people will answer “religion”. A better answer is “oil”.

Diplo-speak

As Secretary of State Hilary Clinton completes her first visit to the Middle East, it appears to me that she must have been issued a dictionary and a handbook on her first day at Foggy Bottom giving her words and methods to say absolutely nothing of meaning. Her predecessor, Condi Rice, when asked about the ongoing expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, would say that they were “unhelpful” to the Peace Process. When asked about Israeli government plans to demolish 80+ Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem, Secretary Clinton allowed that this was “unhelpful” to the Peace Process.
She also appears to have trained her people very well. The Israeli government has refused allow pasta and copy paper into Gaza on security grounds. Evidently the Israelis believe that Hamas has developed technology to produce a spaghetti bomb and is capable of attacking Israel with paper airplanes. State Department spokesperson Robert Wood carried on this very erudite dialogue with the press corps at a recent press briefing.

QUESTION: But can you imagine any circumstance under which pasta could be considered a dual-use item? Or is there some -- you know, is rigatoni somehow going to be used as a weapon? (Laughter.)
MR. WOOD: I’m not involved in those discussions, so I –
QUESTION: Well, I mean -- I mean, it just seems to be absurd on the face of it, if that’s what happening.
MR. WOOD: Well, there are people on the ground who are dealing with these issues. And I think we should leave it --
QUESTION: Dealing with the pasta dual-use issue?
QUESTION: Yeah, can you take a question on the pasta, please?
MR. WOOD: I’m not going to take the question on the pasta --
QUESTION: Why?
MR. WOOD: -- because it’s –
QUESTION: Well, the United States is obviously pushing it, so obviously it’s something --
MR. WOOD: We’re trying to get humanitarian supplies in – on the ground to the people in Gaza.
QUESTION: Do you think food is a humanitarian supply?
MR. WOOD: Food certainly is.
QUESTION: All kinds of food?
MR. WOOD: I – I’m not able to tell you from here whether it –
QUESTION: Can you get a – can you take the question of what kind of food that the U.S. thinks is a humanitarian supply?
MR. WOOD: I’m not going to take that question, because I don’t think it’s a legitimate question.
QUESTION: You don’t think it’s legitimate that the Palestinians need certain foods and is – should Israel decide what food the Palestinians need?
MR. WOOD: I’m sorry, Elise, I’m not going to – I’ve spoken on it.

It would be funny, if it weren’t so sad.

Which prisoners will be released?

Shortly after Hamas won a substantial majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) 2006 election, Israel arrested over 30 members of the PLC. Those arrested were primarily Hamas representatives and they are still being detained as political prisoners in Israel. Evidently Israel and the US thought that they would be able to deny Hamas a majority in the PLC and that the more compliant Fatah faction would retain control.
The strategy did not quite work out as planned. Hamas promptly boycotted the PLC, preventing a quorum and the PLC has not functioned since. President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) responded by appointing a caretaker government led by Salam Fayad. Hamas considers this government illegitimate since it has not received the PLC vote of confidence required by the Palestinian Basic Law. Hamas also considers President Abbas an illegitimate President as it takes the position that his term expired on January 9, 2009.
Since Israel and Hamas declared unilateral ceasefires ending the Gaza war, there have been ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a more permanent long term ceasefire. One of the points of contention has been the release of prisoners. Israel wants the release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and Hamas wants over 1000 Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel. This prisoner exchange will likely happen at some point. Israel has long been reluctant to release prisoners with “blood on their hands”, but since the Hamas PLC members are political prisoners they will probably be among those released.
This event will have a significant impact on the political dynamic in the region. The PLC will be reconstituted and will probably remove Prime Minister Fayad from office and install a Hamas led government. They probably will also begin proceedings to remove Abbas from office. These steps could result in new elections.
Since the Gaza war Hamas’ popularity has increased and polls indicate that they would win any new election. The US and Israel would then be faced with a Palestinian Authority completely under the control of Hamas. Things in the Middle East don’t always work out the way you plan. As Egyptian President Gamel Nasser once told an American friend “The genius of you Americans is that you don’t have simple stupid policies. You only have really complicated stupid policies.”

Everyone wins or maybe loses

2009 is a year of elections in the Middle East and the outcomes of these elections will have important implications for the Obama administration’s efforts to make progress towards reducing tensions and bringing peace and stability to the region.
The election season began with this week’s Israeli election which will be followed by elections in Iran, probably in Lebanon and perhaps in the Palestinian territories. The outcome of the Israeli election has produced more confusion than clarity. Both Tzipi Livni of Kadima and Binyamin Netanyahu of Likud have declared victory and they are both right.
Ms Livni declared victory because Kadima closed fast just before the election and finished with 28 Knesset seats to Likud’s 27. Netanyahu can also declare victory as he is much more likely to be able to put together a coalition of right wing parties than Livni will be able to create a center left coalition. The big winner is Avignor Lieberman, leader of the far right Yisrael Beiteinu party. With 15 seats he is now in the position to be a “king maker”.
Although he is talking to Kadima, it is unlikely that Kadima can sign up to enough of his policy positions, such as ethnically cleansing Israel of Arabs, dealing with Iran militarily, using the same solution for the Palestinian territories that the US used on Japan during WW II and executing Members of the Knesset who talk to Israel’s “enemies”, to attract him into a coalition. Even if Livni were able to navigate these treacherous waters, she would need to bring in the ultra-Orthodox religious parties or the Arabs, both of which she declined before the elections were called.
This leaves a Likud, YB, National Union, and ultra-Orthodox coalition led by Netanyahu as the most likely outcome. Given their positions opposing negotiations with the Palestinians, expanding settlements on the West Bank and addressing Iran militarily, the conventional wisdom is that this government poses big problems for Obama’s agenda.
Not everyone agrees, however. In November a moderate Israeli said to me, “My dream team for peace is Obama and Netanyahu. Netanyahu is so outrageous that even the Americans can’t support him. He should go back to selling furniture in Boston.”