Monday, October 30, 2006

Working from the same playbook

In August 2005 the German periodical Der Speigel published an article outlining the points made by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein in his book “Al Zarqawi – The Second Generation of Al Qaeda”. Hussein is known for his contacts with senior Al Qaeda leaders and his ability to have them be open with him. He spent time in a Jordanian prison with Al Zarqawi. In the book he outlines Al Qaeda’s strategy for establishing an Islamic caliphate over a 20 year period. Here is the seven step plan as presented in Der Speigel :
· The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaeda as very successful," writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard "everywhere."
· The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is, according to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last through 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaeda wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.
· The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaeda's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.
· The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaeda will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaeda." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.
· The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaeda hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
· The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will be a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.
· The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half million Muslims", the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.
The key to this plan according to Hussein is dragging the US into conflict with Iran; overextending its forces and creating chaos in the oil markets and thus disrupting western economies. I assume that the US government has read this play book. It doesn’t mean that we have to follow it. So far, however, we are pretty much on schedule. Al Qaeda has a plan. Do we?



Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Water, water nowhere

Frequently the conflicts in the Middle East are portrayed as religious conflicts; conflicts between Jews and Muslims, Muslims and Christians, Sunni and Shia etc. Although many of the conflicts certainly have a religious component, I would argue that they are more about competing claims for political and economic power, land, oil and water. As a resident of the arid mountain western United States, the water component certainly resonates with me. As we flew over the region on our first trip to Jordan, Marcia commented “I wonder why anyone wants to fight over this desolate piece of desert”. It seems to me that it looks a lot like southern Idaho. Four years ago when we were in Northern Jordan along the Syrian border, there was discussion about a Jordanian – Syrian plan to build a dam on the Yarmouk River which forms the Jordanian/Syrian border and is the primary tributary of the Jordan River. This plan seems to have legs as last week environmentalists were complaining in a Haaretz article that this would dry up the Jordan River. They are probably right. As you can see from this picture taken at the legendary baptismal site of Jesus, the Jordan is no longer the rushing river of our Sunday school images. The flow is now 10% of its historical level and as it is the primary source of water to the Dead Sea the decrease is causing the Dead Sea to recede 3 feet per year. There is even a plan to build a canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea to refill it. As the Jordan River resource is depleted, Israel has become more and more dependent on the Eastern Aquifer on the West Bank for water resources not only for the settlements but also for Israel proper. Of the 46 MCM of water produced by Israeli wells inside the West Bank, 90% is used by the Israelis in the settlements and in Israel. Under Israeli law, Israelis are allowed to drill wells 250 ft deeper than Palestinians. This is conveniently enough to allow the Israelis to reach the aquifer, but not the Palestinians. The separation wall/fence is located so as to insure that access to the aquifer remains on the Israeli side of the barrier. None of this is sustainable by either side as the aquifer is being depleted at a rate higher than its recovery rate. This is a phenomenon familiar to those of us who live in the arid western U.S. Two maxims of the water conflicts in the west are “Water flows uphill towards money” and “Whiskey’s for drinking and water’s for fighting over”. They seem to apply in the Middle East as well.


Wednesday, October 18, 2006

How to build a better city

One of the thoughts that has stayed with me since my trip to Israel and the West Bank with Palestinians in April is “now I have some idea what it was like to be black in the U.S. in the 1960’s”. This thought came back to me last week when I read an op ed piece in the center left Israeli English language paper Haaretz concerning land planning in Jerusalem. As I was reading the article, I wondered how its point of view would play in the U.S today. Using the miracles of modern technology I did a little editing. With apologies to the good folks of Richmond, Virginia I substituted the words Richmond for Jerusalem, Virginia for Israel, white for Jew and black for Palestinian. This is what I got.

A small Richmond is better
By Moshe Amirav

On October 17, the National Council for Planning and Construction is supposed to discuss a new plan that will change the face of Virginia's capital. At issue is the construction of 20,000 residential units west of Richmond, which will dramatically change the direction of the city's expansion and will weaken it economically and politically. The public uproar surrounding the new plan, which has led to the submission of 15,000 objections, stems from fear that the planning mistake of the 1970s is repeating itself. At that time, Virginia invested huge sums in the construction of about 40,000 residential units in East Richmond. These turned into seven neighborhoods, including Ramot, Gilo and Pisgat Ze'ev, which today house about 180,000 white residents. The plan, which was initiated by Golda Meir's government in order to "strengthen the capital," was severely criticized by all the experts. Thirty years later, its destructive consequences have become evident: From a compact city of 37 square kilometers, Richmomd has turned into a huge metropolis that covers 120 square kilometers, twice as large as the area of Tel Aviv and Haifa combined. Instead of channeling government investments into infrastructure, industry and tourism, they were channeled into the construction of these neighborhoods, which led to the flight of businessmen and the economic elites from the city.
During the past two decades, about 300,000 whites have left the city, most from the middle or upper class. Richmond has turned into the poorest city in Virginia, and today, white neighborhoods comprise only one-third of the city's eastern part. The other two-thirds house about a quarter of a million blacks, who have upended the demographic policy designed to reduce their proportions. The white majority has shrunk to only 66 percent, and there is a fear that in another 20 years, the city will be biracial- half its residents will be black. The idea that a "bigger Richmond" would strengthen the city turned out to be mistaken. A "small Richmomd" is preferable. Now, the National Council for Planning and Construction is about to repeat exactly the same mistake, but the consequences are liable to be far worse. A group of wealthy businessmen and a world-famous architect, Moshe Safdie, have joined forces to convince the municipality and the government that Richmond is not big enough, that it lacks built-up areas, and that 120,000 whites must urgently be brought to it. Here lies the trap of the mistaken idea: There is no need to enlarge the city; just the opposite - it should be made smaller. The solution is to strengthen the downtown area and invest in employment infrastructure, on one hand, and to relinquish the black neighborhoods, on the other. All the studies have proven that these two steps would strengthen the city economically and politically. They would raise the city's economic level from 90th (last) place, where it is now, to a respectable place in the top decile of Virginian cities. They would also increase the city's white majority from 66 percent to 96 percent and ensure white hegemony in the Virginian capital. But who listens to experts when wealthy businessmen promise the magic formula: the construction of 20,000 residential units on the slopes of the mountains west of the city? The consequences of the Safdie plan, which calls for these thousands of new apartments, are liable to be a disaster for the capital. The plan would destroy the green landscape west of the city, while the economically strong population that the entrepreneurs promise to bring from the coastal plain to Richmond will not come. Tens of thousands of whites will migrate from the city to private homes and cheap apartments in the luxury neighborhoods that will be built. The percentage of whites in the city will decline to 50 percent within the coming decade, and Richmond will collapse economically and politically. But now, just like 30 years ago, the experts' warnings will apparently be rejected under pressure of the entrepreneurs. Dozens of Knesset members from Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu, the National Religious Party and Meretz have signed a manifesto against the plan. But unless the interior minister and the prime minister intervene to stop the plan, or at least to downsize it, Richmond will continue on its planning march of folly, which holds that a "big Richmond" is the solution for strengthening the city.

I have no idea which program will be more effective insuring a Jewish (white) hegemony in Jerusalem but I think that even discussing this as a goal might cause a bit of an uproar in the U.S. But maybe not, we are learning a lot from the Israelis about how to deal with a minority population.


Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Parallel History

When Linda Biehl, mother of Amy Biehl, an American Fulbright scholar who was killed by a mob of young black men in South Africa, was in our community talking about forgiveness and reconciliation, she also talked about the history of the conflict in South Africa. She brought a Diane Sawyer “Turning Point” video which discussed the history of South Africa and its people. As I listened to this history, I was struck by the parallels between the history of the South African conflict and that of the current conflict in Israel/Palestine. Both countries were founded by religiously motivated Europeans who felt that God had given them this land. In South Africa they were Dutch Reform Protestants and in Israel Palestine it was European Jews. Both groups of Europeans drove the indigenous population from their land and isolated them as second class citizens in poverty stricken enclaves. The Afrikaans found Bible passages that told them that the two races should be separated and the radical Zionists have found passages that tell them that all of Palestine belongs to them. In both cases the oppressed and occupied indigenous populations have fought back both violently and nonviolently. Many leaders of the resisting populations have been killed and imprisoned by the governments established by the Europeans. In South Africa Nelson Mandela spent over 20 years in prison. In Israel/Palestine Marwan Bargouti has been sentenced to three life terms in prison. In both countries young American women were killed while participating in the struggle for justice and reconciliation; Amy Biehl in South Africa and Rachel Corrie in Israel/Palestine. Both women became heroines to the people that they were trying to help. However, the parallel tracks of history have diverged during the last two decades. Although South Africa still has many problems and there remains much residue of the apartheid regime, a just and democratic system of government has been established and blacks and whites live alongside each other in peace. This came about in large measure because of enlightened leadership on both sides and condemnation of and pressure on the white apartheid government by the developed countries of the west led by the U.S. In Israel/Palestine the developed west seems to accept the situation on the ground despite its contribution to instability in the region. In this case it might be good for the parallel tracks to converge and for history to repeat itself.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Email from Bethlehem

Last week I received an email from my friend Ashley Wilkinson. Ashley is an intern with the United Methodist Church working at the Wi’am Center for Conflict Resolution in Bethlehem on the West Bank. The Wi’am Center was our host for our visit to the West Bank and Israel in March and April. The Casa Nova Hotel that she refers to is the hotel that we stayed in while in Bethlehem. Somehow one has a different perspective on Israeli incursions and targeted killings when it happens to your friends and to people that you know.
Ashley writes:
On Tuesday, September 12, 2006 a little before 4:00 PM my boss received a phone call from his sister-in-law telling him that there were about 10 Israeli soldiers with dogs surrounding our homes and coming into our area. She lives in a street side home and my boss’s house is just behind hers – there is a small courtyard between the two homes, so his is not directly on the street. I live in a small apartment on the roof above his home. In front of me are the homes of his brothers and behind me are more homes.
Immediately after hanging up with her, my boss called his house to check on his kids. He has four kids – 14, 12, 11 and 9. The youngest answered the phone. He said he was scared, but okay. He advised them to stay put in the house and to stay away from the windows. If the soldiers knocked or asked to come in, then the kids should let them.
After this we jumped in the car and decided that we wanted to try to get home to be with the kids and to see what was going on. We contacted my boss’s wife, picked her up from work and headed towards their home. Along the way several people stopped us and told us either not to go home or to be careful because there were soldiers at our home.
As we entered Manger Square (which is an open area just up the hill from our home, and the central area for the Nativity Church, the Mosque, the Bethlehem municipality, the International Peace Center, restaurants, etc), we came to a halt behind an ambulance and a crowd of people. The people were looking down the hill trying to see what was going on. It was clear that this was as far as people were either willing to go, or as far as people were being permitted to go.
Not quite sure of what to do, we parked the car on the other side of Manger Square and decided to go wait inside a restaurant – the Casa Nova, a pilgrim guest house and restaurant run by the Franciscans – located next to the Church of the Nativity.
We remained there for the following 4 ½ hours and received updates by phone from the kids, as well as from people like us who were entering the restaurant and seeking shelter there . During our time there we heard loud explosions and lots of gunfire. At several points during the first 3 hours we had to close all the windows and doors because tear gas had been fired. Two of these tear gas canisters were shot into the courtyard of the Casa Nova.
We saw four people carried out of Manger Square and into either taxis or ambulances and then rushed off to hospitals. After about three hours, a few Israeli Army jeeps came into view. They were in the street just beneath the windows of the restaurant and they opened fire there. We obviously did not stay close enough to the windows to see what or who they were firing at, but it was very loud and felt very near. At this point several of us decided to go downstairs further so that we could be out of the way of any danger – as it felt like the jeeps were going to remain just 20 yards away. While downstairs we talked with my boss’s wife (an American who has lived here for the last 20 years) about other incursions and what they were like. We could still hear explosions every now and then.
We soon returned upstairs and were starting to leave to go back to the car when we heard some rapid gunfire that was VERY close to us. Naturally we retreated back into the building. We waited there for another 30 minutes or so.
When we finally felt it was safe to go to the car, just as we arrived at the car we heard more rapid gunfire – it was around 9:00 by this point. We jumped into the car and drove away from Manger Square. The kitchen had been closed at the Casa Nova, so we decided to go try to eat something since we were still unable to get home. Soon after we sat down to eat we received a phone call saying it was safe to go home. We did not arrive home until a little after 10:00 PM.
During the time that we stayed in the Casa Nova, we were in touch consistently with my boss’s kids, with his sister-in-law and with his nephew – all of whom were trapped inside their homes while the soldiers were present. Though the adults tried several times to leave their homes in order to go over to see the kids and simply sit with them, they were prevented from doing so. The courtyard between the homes is not very big – just a few steps from door to door. One of them was finally able to go sit with the kids, but he was threatened 2 or 3 times by the soldiers the moment he left his home.
During this time as well, my boss’s nephew (who has a view to the roof, where my apartment lies) told us that he could see the soldiers had gone into my apartment and were walking around inside and on the patio. Thus we knew they had either broken the door down or broken the lock in order to get in (it turns out it was the latter).
We also were informed while at the Casa Nova that a young boy of 13, Mohammad Ali Showria, was shot and died shortly after receiving the wound.
Upon arriving home we walked up to my apartment to find it very dirty and messy, though only one small trinket was broken. Some furniture was turned over and the bed comforter, couch cover and some old curtains that were in my closet had been taken out and thrown around. There was a lot of dirt (I suppose from the shoes), and it was clear that the soldiers had used the apartment as both a place of protection, but also as a place from which to perform their offensive. They had taken the windows out of their frames (thankfully they did not shatter them) and there were gun shell casings everywhere – especially near the windows and the doors.
Upon talking with the kids and neighbors, we learned that there were about 12 soldiers present and that they had basically set up camp in my apartment in order to fire on the home behind mine. This home apparently housed a young man who was wanted because the Israeli Army claimed he had participated in armed resistance activities. From what I hear, this young man was captured several hours before all the shooting came to an end. Why they continued their offensive, we do not know.
On Wednesday, September 13, I cleaned up my apartment and my boss came up with two of his sons to fix the lock. I heard and saw the funeral procession of Mohammad. His body, wrapped and held on the shoulders of his family, was carried from the hospital in town to the small village where he lived just 8 kilometers away. Reports say that he had been attempting to go home via the taxi station (just 30 yards up the hill from the location of our homes) when he was shot in the chest. All commercial businesses were closed on Wednesday in both a strike for the invasion by the Israeli Army and as a sign of solidarity and mourning for Mohammad’s family and the family of the young man who was taken.
Throughout the days Tuesday and Wednesday I took many photos and interviewed my boss and his wife with the office camera. I hope to compile these at a later date.
Ironically enough, September 12 was the second day of a 10-Day Celebration of Non-Violence which we were holding at the Wi’am Center where I work. And in the coming days we met to talk about issues of Justice and Peace, Non-Violence movements around the world, and the struggle that comes with the daily realities of Occupation.
In many ways I still feel bewildered one week after these events. In many ways I question if anyone cares.