A completely absurd proposal-Part 1 Where are we now?

One of the reasons that I began writing these essays was to force myself to be more coherent and consistent in my thinking about complex issues. Some might argue that this is an entirely hopeless endeavor, but I will continue to struggle along. This piece and the two that will follow are therefore mostly for me as I try to answer two of the questions that have frequently been posed to me since I have returned from Israel/Palestine. Do you think any solution is possible? What do you think should happen? Most will probably say enough, enough. Only Middle East junkies, who, unfortunately, I think I have become, will want to get through all the complexity. If you decide to leave here, thanks for listening to my rambles. See you in a few weeks. Back to the questions- My off the cuff, flippant answer was been: “The US needs to get the hell out”. But these are valid questions and they deserve more consideration. Lets start by looking at where we are now. People say that we need to return to the “peace process”. What “peace process”? In the thirteen years since the Oslo agreements in which Yassar Arafat gave up his strategic vision of a single secular state in return for a bunch of promises (none of them lived up to) and invitations to state dinners all over the world (I hope that the food and wine were good), the situation has continuously deteriorated. Neither side has lived up to its commitments and the proposed Palestinian state has been carved up into separate enclaves bounded by fences/walls, bypass roads and military reserves with no open borders and little internal communication and access. The Israeli governments of Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon have, since 1993, attempted to establish irreversible facts on the ground in the form of settlements and annexations. They have succeeded. There are now approximately 400,000 settlers east of the 1967 armistice line who would have to be evacuated in order to return to these borders. The evacuation scenario of 8000 settlers in Gaza last year gives one some sense of what this would look like. When we asked if evacuating the settlement in Hebron would create an Israeli civil war, the spokesperson said “I wouldn’t call it probable, but I would call it possible.” This scenario is not politically feasible for the Israelis. The Sharon/Ohmert convergence/disengagement plan “only” requires that 50 – 100 settlements be dismantled and 50-100,000 settlers be expelled from their homes. Even this plan has a lot of opposition in Israel. (Click here to see how much) The disengagement plan (see the map) creates untenable borders for the “Palestinian state” and will never be accepted by any Palestinian government be it Hamas, Fatah or a reincarnation of Yassar Arafat. Can the US help resolve this seemingly irresolvable situation? Simple answer- No! The US has no role as an effective mediator. A mediator needs to be unbiased, willing to listen to the interests of both sides without judgment and find the common ground. With over 50 years of uncritical support for one side of the conflict, the US cannot be seen by Palestinians as unbiased. At Camp David, Palestinian negotiators dealing with Ehud Barak, Bill Clinton and AIPAC staffers Dennis Ross and Martin Indyck felt like they were negotiating with both Israel and the US. (They were probably right) That leaves us with question – Where do we go from here? Easy answer – beats me, but let’s look at this next time.



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