End of the beginning-beginning of the end

This month’s travels to the Middle East, including Israel and Palestine, yielded a view of a situation much worse than I saw last year. The light of hope has gone out of the eyes of West Bank Palestinians. Economic sanctions, the cut off of aid, border closings, the arming of factions and the disruption of communication and travel have resulted in frustration and a loss of hope. Internecine warfare and chaos have added to the despair caused by high unemployment and a collapsing economy. It is becoming increasing clear to me, if not to our political leaders, that a negotiated two state solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is unrealistic. For there to be a negotiated settlement there must be overlap between the positions of the parties. As the Israeli rejection of the Arab peace proposal indicates, there is a large gap between the minimum that the Palestinians would accept and the most that the Israelis would offer. Israelis are not going to give up modern settlements on the West Bank, like Maal Adumim, which are made suburbs of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem by bypass roads. These settlements are home to 500,000 Israeli Jews. Years of weak and even incompetent leadership in the US, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have brought us to this point. They have been unwilling or unable to make the difficult political decisions required for a solution. We are at the end of the peace process and the beginning of the road to apartheid and ethnic cleansing. (Jeff Halper, Coordinator of Israeli Committee Against Housing Demolition makes this point here) Heading down this road, we are in danger of arriving at out-right war. The Palestinian/American lawyer who is the legal advisor to the Palestinian Authority told the story of a conversation that he had on the streets of Ramallah on the West Bank. After he had led a team of Palestinian Authority lawyers at the International Court of Justice who won their case and had the ICJ declare the Israeli separation wall/fence illegal, he was told “You may be happy, but it will have no effect. The US and Israel will ignore it and the rest of the world will go along. No one knows we are here unless we make a noise”. The lawyer said “I knew what he meant”. Sooner or later a Palestinian Israeli citizen, enraged by the death of a sister in childbirth at an Israeli checkpoint or the death of a brother as collateral damage from an Israeli targeted killing will “make a noise” at a coffee shop in Tel Aviv or Haifa. (The novel The Attack by Yasima Khadra explores this scenario.) The resulting Israeli crack down will surface all the fissures in Israeli society and expand the conflict throughout the region. More innocent Israelis, Palestinians and maybe Americans will die. But perhaps there are no innocent Israelis, Palestinians or Americans. In a discussion with an Iranian about the fact that Iranians don’t hold the actions of the US government against individual Americans he said “This may change. You are a democracy and in a democracy, you are responsible for your government.” Israel, the Palestinian Territories and America are democracies. In a democracy you get the government that you deserve.

Welcome to my country

As an American visitor in Iran who is obviously not Iranian, one is frequently approached in public places with the question “Where are you from?” When you say America”, the usual response is “Welcome to my country” or ‘Welcome to my city”. This response of ownership reflects the strong nationalism of Iranians and their great pride in their ancient civilization, much of it dating from the 2nd millennium BCE. I met a young lady in Persopolis, a palace complex dating to 500 BCE, who was in tears. When asked why she was crying, she responded that “I am so sad that that my country has fallen from where it was to where it is today.” This pride in their country’s historical importance manifests itself when the man in the street supports the efforts of a relatively unpopular regime to stand up to the west and insist that their rights under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) be respected. Given this popular support it is unlikely that US efforts to force Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment program will have an impact. The best that the US can hope for is that Iran will live up to its obligations under the NPT and allow effective IAEA inspections to remain in place. The current US sanctions are having little effect. There is some cost to the economy since international credit card transactions have to be processed through Dubai, some US patented drugs hard to obtain and spare parts for US made equipment are unavailable except at a very high cost. Everything needs a middleman. (Our guides mother and mother in law both called to see if he had survived our flight from Tehran to Yazd. They said “Our planes are not safe.”) There is also a cost to the US from the sanctions. Iran is building strong business relationships with French, Russian, Chinese and Arab state business entities. These business relationships will be hard to overcome when relations are normalized and Iranians fully expect that to happen. When there was pressure to sell the US embassy property to pay compensation to the victims of the Iran Air flight shot down by the USS Vincennes, President Amadenijad refused to allow it. He said “The property belongs to the US and they will want it back when they return”. Currently the former embassy is a now closed museum of American “crimes”. Current US policy of attempting to unilaterally isolate Iran will probably have the same effect as US Cuba policy and keep the current regime in place for a long time. We would be better served by engaging this proud nation with its moderate Muslim population and with its potential to be an ally in stabilizing this troubled part of the world.

Remaining in Power

Two weeks of traveling in Iran have it clear that this beautiful and ancient country is a land of many contradictions. The three identities that Iranians hold (Persian, Islamic and modern) are constantly in conflict and shape the views of average Iranians on all the issues that face them. Any government in this country must deal with this reality. In addition, with 75% of the population under 30, there is constant pressure to provide a future based on economic and political opportunity. To Supreme Leader Khamanei it must feel like trying to raise 50 million teenagers. Like any politician Khamanei and President Amedinijad are primarily interested in remaining in power. When the Islamic republic was founded with the overthrow of the Shah, it was an idealistic state. The leaders of the revolution had ambitions of spreading their form of government throughout the Middle East. They set out to suppress all internal opposition, killing and imprisoning members of the Shah’s repressive regime as well as any others whom they saw as potential opposition. Since then a strong dose of political reality has significantly moderated the regime. Social restrictions have loosened. People talk openly about the failures of the regime. They remain, however, reluctant to talk “on the record”. Even the monarchists feel free to express their point of view. The media is not as free as many would like it to be. To deviate too far from the government line risks having your company be shut down. For this reason the media tends to practice self censorship much like the US media practices with respect to the Israel/Palestine issue. Western news, however, is readily available on satellite and on the internet. There is some internet control. In my experience, it is primarily focused on internal Iranian blog sites and sites such as Victoria’s Secret which are deemed un-Islamic. Given the easy availability of western media outlets,it is not clear to me that the US propaganda station is a useful enterprise. It in fact may help the regime by allowing them to accuse the US of interference and give them an excuse to crack down on satellite TV. This is similar to the excuses given for blocking Al Jazeera in the US. (Some Iranians believe that the government bureaucrats are in cahoots with the people that sell satellite antennas. The government confiscates the antenna so that people have to buy a new one.) Some even argue that the regime is helped by encouraging more western TV. Conservative Iranians look at the lifestyle portrayed by US TV programming and conclude that “we don’t want to be like that”. Trying to deal with this educated, informed and demanding population is a daunting task for the leadership. In order to remain in power they must cope with many constituencies and go to great lengths to insure that opposition does not become too organized and motivated. To this end they even maintain two armies, the regular army and the regime loyal Revolutionary Guard) in order to minimize the chance of a military coup. With these dynamics in mind it is important that whenever Americans listen to events in Iran that we remember that much of it is for domestic consumption. Iranian politicians are acting like politicians everywhere-trying to remain in power.

Message for the Supreme Leader

Much has been made in the Iranian blogs the last few weeks about the effort by the Iranian government to crack down on “unIslamic dress” in order to encourage more conservative dress among Iran’s youthful population. (75% of Iranians are under 30) The “fashion police” have been out on the streets peering into cars and stopping women on the streets to chastise them and some times arrest them for “bad hejab”. (I have not seen any of this activity) Our guide said that his wife felt the need to purchase a new manteau that would cover more of her curves. Yesterday my wife, Marcia, decided that she needed to purchase a second manteau. I am not sure whether this reflected the need to make more of a fashion statement or the practical need to be able to get one washed after wearing it for a week. Buying a manteau is a bit like buying a Model T Ford. For the most part you can get any color that you want as long as it is black. In order to accomplish this mission, we asked the young lady at the hotel desk where to go buy a manteau. This was the wrong question. I should have asked “Where does your mother go to buy a manteau?” After a hair raising cab ride through the traffic mayhem that is part of the adventure of Iran and the near death experience of crossing the street (I find it useful to find an Iranian woman covered in a complete abaya and stick close to her. The men are much too agile.) we arrived at the mall. This was Thurday night, the Saturday night of the Iranian workweek, and the mall was filled with young people “cruising” to hook up with members of the opposite sex. The girls were dressed in jeans and manteaus that had to have been painted on. The XXL size in the shops was about a 10. After 30 minutes in this mall, I have a message for the Supreme Leader: In your battle to improve Islamic dress in Iran, you are losing.

PS: Our cab driver finally understood the problem and took us where his wife shops. Mission accomplished.

View from Tehran

Tehran is a clean, bustling city of:
Traffic mayhem,
Parks
High end malls
Warm hospitable nationalistic people
Beautiful women in hejab measured in inches and manteus that barely reach the thigh
Pictures of martyrs
Death to America murals
Ancient artifacts
Snow covered peaks
Palaces
Bazaars
Wealth and Poverty

Voices from Gaza

Zakeya Shabit, grandmother, patient at Al Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza: “During our Ramadan feast, the Israelis shot at a school near our home. Four of our bed-rooms and our kitchen were demolished. My brother was killed. My nephew was shot at her neck. 6 donums of our land were uprooted. We call God to interfere.”

Hanniyeh, nurse at Al Ahli Arab Hospital: “During an invasion we cannot reach our kitchen to get water, because it is near the area of shooting. They shoot at anything that is moving. So the family gathers in the center of the house to have as many protecting walls around them as possible. Anyone can be killed at any time. We started taking shifts in sleeping, because sometimes they knock at the door at night, and if we do not hear them they may shoot the whole house. Even if I smile, my heart is suffering! May God help us!”

Imm Alla’, patient at Al Ahli Arab Hospital: “I want to understand one thing: Are human beings divided into classes? Are not all people human beings? Are Moslems, Christians and Jews different from each other? Are we as Moslems second class human beings? Why should my mother have to grieve and cry? Would you agree if someone was to take you out of your house? Kill your son? Take your water? Bulldoze your trees, your land, your house? Where are our human rights???”

Imm Ahmed, patient at Al Ahli Hospital: “We cannot continue to live in fear our whole life. Fear has become a common feeling. When the airplanes are bombing we prepare ourselves for death.” “We are the living dead! Better to die than to live like this. Enough! They have taken the land and we are left and forgotten in Gaza. There is no hope! We only want to live in peace!”
“The psychological pressure causes headaches and affects our eyes. We are all psychologically ill. I am here in the hospital because of the situation. I believe my illness is a direct result of the psychological impact of the shelling and bombings. We cannot take it any more!”

Dr. Maher Ayyad, medical director at Al Ahli Arab Hospital: “The voice of peace is weak in this land. It should be strong and the whole world should encourage the people of this land to make peace. People should be more open and believe that this is the land of God which was given to all of us. We can live together. They cannot dismiss all Palestinians, and we cannot dismiss all Israelis. Let us live and grow together. Killing will not solve anything! All who draw the sword will die by the sword! Let our children grow in a better atmosphere! Let us make this land the Holy Land!”

Suhaila Tarazi, director of Al Ahli Arab Hospital: “The Arab Christian can be a mediator between the Jews and the Muslims, the West and the Middle East. For us Christianity is peace and love for everybody. But we fear that Jesus will not find one single follower when he comes back. The Church should help the Christians to stay here. This is the land of Christianity and all His followers. Christians should be here to help and give a good example of Christianity.”
“But where is the conscience of the true Christians in this world? It is very dark in here. I do not see any hope. The situation has deteriorated in a way I cannot describe. In a week’s time 48 people were killed.”
“Israel has the right to security. But it does not have the right to excessive weapons. They are empowering Hamas.”
“It seems that Israelis have no sense of guilt about what they have done to the Palestinians. The Jews have suffered so much and I feel with them. But why do they victimize other people? Will not any person who was once poor remember the value of a piece of bread and give it to the one in need?”