Remaining in Power

Two weeks of traveling in Iran have it clear that this beautiful and ancient country is a land of many contradictions. The three identities that Iranians hold (Persian, Islamic and modern) are constantly in conflict and shape the views of average Iranians on all the issues that face them. Any government in this country must deal with this reality. In addition, with 75% of the population under 30, there is constant pressure to provide a future based on economic and political opportunity. To Supreme Leader Khamanei it must feel like trying to raise 50 million teenagers. Like any politician Khamanei and President Amedinijad are primarily interested in remaining in power. When the Islamic republic was founded with the overthrow of the Shah, it was an idealistic state. The leaders of the revolution had ambitions of spreading their form of government throughout the Middle East. They set out to suppress all internal opposition, killing and imprisoning members of the Shah’s repressive regime as well as any others whom they saw as potential opposition. Since then a strong dose of political reality has significantly moderated the regime. Social restrictions have loosened. People talk openly about the failures of the regime. They remain, however, reluctant to talk “on the record”. Even the monarchists feel free to express their point of view. The media is not as free as many would like it to be. To deviate too far from the government line risks having your company be shut down. For this reason the media tends to practice self censorship much like the US media practices with respect to the Israel/Palestine issue. Western news, however, is readily available on satellite and on the internet. There is some internet control. In my experience, it is primarily focused on internal Iranian blog sites and sites such as Victoria’s Secret which are deemed un-Islamic. Given the easy availability of western media outlets,it is not clear to me that the US propaganda station is a useful enterprise. It in fact may help the regime by allowing them to accuse the US of interference and give them an excuse to crack down on satellite TV. This is similar to the excuses given for blocking Al Jazeera in the US. (Some Iranians believe that the government bureaucrats are in cahoots with the people that sell satellite antennas. The government confiscates the antenna so that people have to buy a new one.) Some even argue that the regime is helped by encouraging more western TV. Conservative Iranians look at the lifestyle portrayed by US TV programming and conclude that “we don’t want to be like that”. Trying to deal with this educated, informed and demanding population is a daunting task for the leadership. In order to remain in power they must cope with many constituencies and go to great lengths to insure that opposition does not become too organized and motivated. To this end they even maintain two armies, the regular army and the regime loyal Revolutionary Guard) in order to minimize the chance of a military coup. With these dynamics in mind it is important that whenever Americans listen to events in Iran that we remember that much of it is for domestic consumption. Iranian politicians are acting like politicians everywhere-trying to remain in power.