Believe the Mullahs?

Ever since the EU3+3 and Iran announced their agreement on “Joint Plan of Action” with respect to Iran’s nuclear program and western sanctions on Iran, “the spin masters” on all sides have been busy framing the agreement in ways that match their political agendas. The U.S. media has given the most airtime and press space to those who are opposed to the agreement and who are determined to torpedo it. Most of the opponents have echoed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s pronouncement that the agreement is a “historic mistake”. Most of the pundits appear to have reached their conclusions without having read the document. Netanyahu certainly didn’t read the agreement as he made his statements days before the agreement was finalized. The Obama administration felt the need to fight back against their opponents by issuing a Fact Sheet: First Step Understandings Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program. (As far as I can see they have neglected to publish the full text of the agreement) The Iranian government promptly rejected the Fact Sheet saying, “What has been released by the website of the White House as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action…”. (See here) Iran promptly released the full text of the agreement. (See here) The Iranians also disputed Secretary of State John Kerry’s statement that “"We do not recognize a right to enrich".

With all this back and forth, I thought that it might be useful to actually look at the agreement. First, one should point out that this is an interim agreement designed to provide an opportunity to build trust between the parties and to deescalate the dispute while a final agreement is negotiated. That said the agreement does provide the “Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution.” None of the steps agreed upon for the interim period are irreversible for either side and nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to.

With respect to the nuclear program, among other things, the agreement provides that Iran will:

• From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%.

• Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.

• Iran has decided to convert to oxide, UF6 (Uranium Hexafluoride) newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.

With respect to the right to enrich, the agreement states, “This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program.” This sounds to me like recognition of the right to enrich with IAEA inspection.

With respect to sanctions the agreement says, “This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program.” The U.S. piece was weasel worded in recognition of Congress’s ability to throw a monkey wrench in the agreement. Iran’s agreement on the Additional Protocol of the NPT was also weasel worded in recognition of the Iranian Parliament’s ability to refuse to ratify it as they refused to do in 2003.

Despite all the controversy, the Geneva Agreement appears to me to be a balanced effort which achieves its goal of buying time for a reasonable and comprehensive solution to the 35 year war between the U.S. and Iran. It is too bad, however, that in order to get the facts, one must rely on the mullahs rather than the U.S. Dept. of State. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani seems to treat his people like adults and explain exactly what he agreed to and what he didn’t. It would be nice if the U.S. government would do the same for us.

Photo by LA Times

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