In the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon, during which Israeli aerial attacks claimed more than 1000 lives (mostly civilians) in Lebanon, Secretary of State Condi Rice, in declining to push for a cease fire, famously described the carnage as the “birth pangs of a new Middle East”. The Bush administration’s “new Middle East”, which was western initiated democracies who would be friendly to U.S./Israeli hegemony, was stillborn. In 2012 we are seeing in Egypt a newborn fledgling democracy that, in all its messiness, is being born of Middle Eastern lineage and parentage.
In this week’s initial presidential election voting 13 candidates competed fiercely for the support of Egyptian voters. Egyptians that I heard from described their feelings about participating in their first election in which the winner was not predetermined and in which their vote actually meant something as a mixture of excitement and fear of the unknown. Many did not make up their minds until they were standing in line at the polls. Although the official count will not be known until next week, it appears Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate and Ahmed Shafiq, a former Prime Minister in the Mubarak regime, will face off in the run-off election on June 16 and 17.
Many commentators and analysts expressed surprise at the strong showing by Shafiq who has been described by opponents as a “remnant” of the old regime. However, in my discussions with Egyptians during my trip to Egypt last month, it seemed to me that there was room for support for a “law and order’ candidate. In discussing the rising chaos and lawlessness, one Egyptian said to me “We overthrew Mubarak for this?” The lawlessness has varied from nuisance, such as an occupy movement in Tahrir Square and driving the wrong way around the Tahrir Square roundabout to the more serious burglaries and assaults. Fearing criticism of their tactics, the police have largely stood on the sidelines. The people working in the tourist industry, the largest industry in Egypt, have been devastated by the unrest which led to the collapse of tourism. They are fed up with the insecurity and just want an opportunity to work and to earn a living.
As we approach the run-off election, it must be remembered that Shafiq and Morsi received only 50% of the vote. The 50% that supported other candidates will have to decide if they want to give the Muslim Brotherhood complete control of the government or if they want to bring back part of the old regime in the name of stability. Western commentators have been apoplectic about the outcome, describing it as a “nightmare scenario”. (See here.) In democratic elections, sometimes the candidate you don’t like wins. Get over it. Whatever the result, it will have a “Made in Egypt” label.
2 comments:
Dear Mr. Donald,
I am very impressed about your memos about the first round of our elections in Egypt, it is very close to our discussions here in Egypt, it is true our first priority is a law and order candidate but Shafiq has been part of the old regime of Mubarak for the past 30 years of his life, before being the Prime Minster at the uprising duration, he was the minster of Aviation for many years, the uprisings was against Mubarak regime, the system that was used for running the country for 30 years was not acceptable any more, Shafiq was part of this system.
Muslim Brotherhood project of the Renaissance needs 16 years as they say, they already have the majority of the seats in the Egyptian parliament, their performance in the parliament has not been satisfactory for most of the Egyptians including those who voted for them of course.
Personally I can’t stand them for 16 days, how can I handle them in the presidency seat, Government, parliament for 16 more years, yes there will be other elections for the presidency seat in four years but they will keep saying we need more time for the project, Morsy their candidate has no charisma at all, I can’t see him as the president of Egypt.
It is true a nightmare, worst scenario, depression, no new Egypt, dark tunnel. That is how I feel, many of the Egyptians do.
I like your last sentence a lot, yes both are Egyptians chosen by the votes of the Egyptians but it is a total loss for the uprisings, the falling of Mubarak , the country’s economy suffering. It is an option between bringing Mubarak back (Shafiq) or losing Liberal independent civil Egypt as we shall be one of countries ruled by Muslim brotherhood and soon part of a bigger Union, losing Egyptian Identity in my own country.
Dear Mr. Donald,
I am very impressed about your memos about the first round of our elections in Egypt, it is very close to our discussions here in Egypt, it is true our first priority is a law and order candidate but Shafiq has been part of the old regime of Mubarak for the past 30 years of his life, before being the Prime Minster at the uprising duration, he was the minster of Aviation for many years, the uprisings was against Mubarak regime, the system that was used for running the country for 30 years was not acceptable any more, Shafiq was part of this system.
Muslim Brotherhood project of the Renaissance needs 16 years as they say, they already have the majority of the seats in the Egyptian parliament, their performance in the parliament has not been satisfactory for most of the Egyptians including those who voted for them of course.
Personally I can’t stand them for 16 days, how can I handle them in the presidency seat, Government, parliament for 16 more years, yes there will be other elections for the presidency seat in four years but they will keep saying we need more time for the project, Morsy their candidate has no charisma at all, I can’t see him as the president of Egypt.
It is true a nightmare, worst scenario, depression, no new Egypt, dark tunnel. That is how I feel, many of the Egyptians do.
I like your last sentence a lot, yes both are Egyptians chosen by the votes of the Egyptians but it is a total loss for the uprisings, the falling of Mubarak , the country’s economy suffering. It is an option between bringing Mubarak back (Shafiq) or losing Liberal independent civil Egypt as we shall be one of countries ruled by Muslim brotherhood and soon part of a bigger Union, losing Egyptian Identity in my own country.
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