Afghanistan after America

With all the loud and largely fact free debate that is going on during the current presidential campaign, very little has been said about America’s longest war in Afghanistan. Neither candidate wants to talk about it since a reluctant Obama was never really sold on the surge strategy and any position taken by Romney would tie his hands should he be elected. However, whoever wins the election will quickly be faced with some very difficult decisions. With the 2014 deadline for withdrawal of American combat forces and a massive logistical task required to implement an orderly withdrawal, decisions will need to be made quickly. Since the press is preoccupied with campaign non-events, it might be useful to look at where we are and what the future might bring.

At a recent conference on the subject which I attended, Ryan Crocker, recently retired ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and four other Middle East countries, expressed his view that the surge had been relatively successful. Since Ambassador Crocker is no Pollyanna, (He was sarcastically dubbed “sunshine” by President Bush for ongoing pessimistic reports on the on the situation in Iraq) his assessment should be taken seriously.

While poorly conceived, planned and implemented the surge has accomplished some of its objectives. The surge forces have gained control of major population centers and the roads connecting them. While it might been more useful to train fewer forces better, 350,000 Afghan security forces have been partially trained and they may be capable of sustaining some control of the population centers once U.S. forces have departed. Some economic development projects have been completed. However, the vast majority of Afghan GDP is still directly tied to western aid and the presence of thousands of foreign troops and civilian workers. All this has been achieved in the face of rampant corruption, incompetence and bureaucratic infighting between the Dept. of State and the Pentagon, within the armed services and between allies. No small accomplishment. It is possible that we might just muddle through.

Nonetheless, everything must go right over the next few years for this to work out OK and not be a complete disaster. Some of the factors we have some control over and some we do not. It should be noted that Murphy probably developed his law after observing Afghanistan. Some of the factors to watch for are:

• · Are the Afghan security forces as good as Crocker thinks they are?
• · The Afghan political situation is fragile. Will Hamid Karzai step down at the end of his term? Who will succeed him?
• · What will Iran do? In the current circumstance, Iran is incentivized to maintain managed chaos.
• · What will Pakistan do? Pakistan will not allow an Indian client state on its western border. The good news on this front is that the Pakistani public no longer sees India as the major threat. America has assumed this position.
• · Will economically stressed western countries be able to deliver on their promised aid?
• · Will al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban be able to reconstitute themselves and regain their position as a global threat?

Ambassador Crocker articulated his primary rules for international relations. “Be very concerned about the unintended consequences of any decision that you make. Be very careful before you get in. Be very careful how you get out.”

So far we have violated the first two in Afghanistan. I hope that we don’t go 3 for 3. The last time we were involved in Afghanistan, we declared victory and walked away. We ended up with al Qaeda.