With the convening today of the second meeting of the current round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (or the E3+3, depending on whether you are talking to Americans or Europeans) over Iran’s nuclear program, there has been much discussion about whether or not these talks will be a “success”. In order get any kind of answer to this question, we need to define what “success” means and I think that it means something different to all of the parties.
For the Iranians, the primary objective is to normalize relations with the West and to have the U.S. recognize Iran’s legitimate role in Middle East regional politics. Everything that Iran has tried to accomplish over the past decade has been designed to achieve sufficient negotiating leverage to obtain significant concessions from the P5+1 and to create a stockpile of enriched uranium that can be used as a bargaining chip in any negotiations.
Defining “success” for the P5+1 or E3+3 is a more complicated endeavor since there is little agreement among the parties on what success looks like. For the European countries (Britain, France and Germany) “success” is obtaining an agreement with Iran that ensures that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons and that modifies any sanctions so that Europe is assured of a continued flow of oil to the weak European economies. Russia and China share the goal of no nuclear weapons in Iran, but differ in their approach. Russia, as an oil exporter, is comfortable with the ongoing confrontation as it drives up the global price of oil. China on the other hand is an oil importer and desires a return to normal commercial ties with Iran.
The U.S. is an even more complicated situation as there are numerous powerful forces influencing policy decisions and thus preventing a united position. The Obama administration would like to “kick the can” past the elections and, in the interim, lower the tensions in order reduce the price of gasoline. To this end the U.S. has quietly signaled to the Iranians that it would accept low level uranium enrichment. Also, according to an Iranian political analyst close to the government, the U.S. recognizes that the Iranians consider the threat of military attack as a “bad joke”, and has signaled that the military option is no longer on the table. (See here)
The Israel Lobby and its allies in Congress, on the other hand, see “success” as regime change in the Islamic Republic and are taking steps to blow up any negotiations, and maybe the region as well. By large majorities, both Houses of Congress have rushed through legislation that will tie the Obama administration’s hands in the give and take of negotiations and are also taking steps to remove the Iranian terrorist group MEK/MKO from the U.S. terrorist list, a move that will enrage all Iranians.
My definition of “success” is much more modest. I would be pleased if we just managed to schedule another meeting.
(Photo by FARS News Agency)
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