As the pro-democracy uprisings have spread across the Middle East and North Africa sweeping from power US supported authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and threatening other regimes, US policy makers are facing a number of new challenges. The new governments that are coming to power and reflecting the views of their citizens are not going to be as supportive of US policies as the previous regimes.
For several years the US has expressed tepid support for efforts by Egypt under Hosni Mubarak and his intelligence chief Omar Suleiman to achieve reconciliation between the rival Palestinian Hamas and Fatah factions. This effort was never successful because Egypt was never an “honest broker” and never genuinely wanted reconciliation. Mubarak was afraid of a successful Palestinian government in which Hamas (an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood) participated would inspire his own Muslim Brotherhood opposition. The US and Israel were perfectly happy with the status quo that divided the Palestinians.
It didn’t take long for the new Egyptian government to change the landscape. Last week, after several weeks of secret negotiations, the parties announced a reconciliation agreement which is to be signed on Wednesday. Most observers, myself included, felt that the new Egyptian government, in which the Muslim Brotherhood plays a role, would change the negotiating dynamic. What did surprise me, however, is how fast the agreement happened. While it is still possible that the agreement will fall apart over details of implementation, so far it appears to be on track.
A Palestinian unity government with Hamas as a participant creates big policy dilemmas for the US and Israel. Israel has immediately condemned the agreement, called on Fatah to back out and stopped transfer of tax revenues which they collect for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The US has issued its pro-forma statement calling Hamas a terrorist organization and repeating well-worn preconditions.
There are several possible outcomes to this state of affairs. One is that the US and Israel will succeed in pressuring the PA and Egypt to abandon the deal. While possible, it seems unlikely as Egypt has already announced that it will completely open the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Another, although unlikely, outcome is that the US will recognize that Hamas is an essential player in any agreement and deal with the unity government. The most likely outcome is that Israel and the US Congress will cut off all tax and aid payments to the PA. The result of the cutoff of aid will either be a collapse of the PA or someone else filling the gap.
The collapse of the PA would not be all bad as it would throw the whole mess back on the Israelis, further straining their resources. Iran is a good candidate for filling the breach as it would further enhance their influence. It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would allow Iran to accomplish this and, therefore, they will be forced to back the PA. Whatever the outcome, the US influence in the region will decline further.
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