In October of 2006, I wrote an article about Al Qaeda’s seven step plan documenting their strategy designed to create an Islamic caliphate by 2020. (The whole article is here) This strategy as outlined in an article by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein in the German periodical Der Speigel, was first implemented on September 11, 2001 with the attack on the World Trade Center. Mr. Hussein in known for his contacts with senior Al Qaeda leaders and his ability to have them be open with him. Therefore, he has some credibility on this subject.
Although, events have not played out exactly as Al Qaeda leaders predicted, the plan is reasonably on schedule. We have now arrived at the fourth phase. Mr. Hussein writes that, between 2010 and 2013, Al Qaeda will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaeda."
As I have pointed out previously, the 9/11attack was a Saudi civil war being fought on American soil. The 9/11attack was designed to punish the US for its support of the hated Saudi regime and to draw the US into a prolonged Middle East war where they could be defeated. As one watches the events of the “Arab Spring” unfold, one can see Al Qaeda’s goal of the collapse of US supported Middle East authoritarian regimes being realized. While these regime changes are being accomplished by largely peaceful and secular uprisings and not through the leadership of Al Qaeda, the results are still the same.
Of the countries experiencing uprisings against authoritarian governments, Libya and Yemen have the greatest possibility of ending up in the chaos of failed states which will leave space for the strengthening of Al Qaeda. US administration leaders have expressed this concern. Senator John McCain also expressed concern following his visit to Libya in support of the rebel forces. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQM) are two of the strongest Al Qaeda “franchises”. Any outcome that provides them space to operate cannot be good news.
The US policy of supporting corrupt, authoritarian regimes in the name of regional stability may have short term appeal, but it has helped to create a vacuum in civil society. Now that these regimes are suddenly collapsing, Al Qaeda may be in a position to be more dangerous.
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