Monday, May 30, 2011

A Palestinian Plan B

The ongoing uprisings throughout the Arab world during the last six months have largely removed the Arab/Israeli conflict from the pages of the western media. This changed last week when Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu came to Washington to meet with President Obama, speak to AIPAC and speak to a joint session of the US Congress. The depth of the stalemate in place in the so called “peace process” was vividly on display throughout the week as Netanyahu and Obama each struggled to set the agenda. The Palestinian leadership watching from afar as Netanyahu articulated the three “no’s”: no 1967 borders, no refugees and no Jerusalem, concluded that the negotiation process was completely dead. As they watched the US Congress jump up and down like puppets on AIPAC strings during Netanyahu’s speech, they also realized that Obama has no ability to influence events.

Shortly after watching this circus in Washington, Palestinian President Abbas announced that they would proceed, despite US warnings to the contrary, with their effort to obtain recognition by the UN in September. The Arab League quickly endorsed this effort and so it is unlikely that Abbas will back down regardless of strong US pressure.

This week Netanyahu told an Israeli audience that there was no way that Israel could prevent UN General Assembly recognition of Palestine, but he was comfortable that a resolution would never be approved by the Security Council. Read here “the US will veto any resolution and that will be the end of it”.

However, it may not be the end of it after all. In 1950, when the Soviet Union was vetoing everything in sight and stalemating the Security Council, the US orchestrated the passage of UN General Assembly resolution 377. In this so called “Uniting for Peace” resolution the General Assembly:

"Resolves that if the Security Council, because of lack of unanimity of the permanent members, fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security in any case where there appears to be a threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression, the General Assembly shall consider the matter immediately with a view to making appropriate recommendations to Members for collective measures, including in the case of a breach of the peace or act of aggression the use of armed force when necessary, to maintain or restore international peace and security."

Under this resolution the General Assembly essentially acts as a Security Council of the whole with the power to approve Palestinian membership and impose sanctions on Israel as an occupying power of a UN member. If 377 is invoked, the game may not be over until it is over.

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