In August 2005 the German periodical Der Speigel published an article outlining the points made by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein in his book “Al Zarqawi – The Second Generation of Al Qaeda”. Hussein is known for his contacts with senior Al Qaeda leaders and his ability to have them be open with him. He spent time in a Jordanian prison with Al Zarqawi. In the book he outlines Al Qaeda’s strategy for establishing an Islamic caliphate over a 20 year period. Here is the seven step plan as presented in Der Speigel :
· The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaeda as very successful," writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard "everywhere."
· The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is, according to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last through 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaeda wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.
· The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaeda's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.
· The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaeda will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaeda." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.
· The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaeda hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
· The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will be a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.
· The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half million Muslims", the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.
The key to this plan according to Hussein is dragging the US into conflict with Iran; overextending its forces and creating chaos in the oil markets and thus disrupting western economies. I assume that the US government has read this play book. It doesn’t mean that we have to follow it. So far, however, we are pretty much on schedule. Al Qaeda has a plan. Do we?
Middle East
Al Qaeda
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