Paranoia: A good thing?

The news this week has been dominated by reaction to the release of the National Intelligence Estimate that declared that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program four years ago and would not be able obtain a nuclear weapon, even if it wanted one, until the 2013-2015 timeframe. The reaction from the US government was that Iran still remains a “grave threat” and is presents a danger of starting WW III. Many commentators have expressed the view that this reaction is a good example of “I have my policy, don’t confuse me with the facts” or “irrational paranoia”. Perhaps, however, in this case, paranoia is a good thing. I participated in a conference call today with Professor Shipley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor of Peace and Development at the University of Maryland on the subject of “Annapolis and Beyond”. During the discussion it was clear that it is crucial that the US weigh in as a player during the “peace process” envisioned at Annapolis. The US role is crucial for several reasons. First and foremost, there is an enormous “power asymmetry” between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the negotiations. The US must balance this asymmetry if there is to be a just settlement that can be accepted by the Palestinian people. Second, Prime Minister Abbas has put all his eggs in the US basket and the US has put all its eggs in his basket. If the US fails, Abbas is finished and Hamas is waiting on the sidelines to say “I told you so”. Third, Israel is responsive only to the US. Without US pressure Israel has no incentive to negotiate a settlement. The power imbalance makes it very likely that they can weather any violent response by Hamas and other militants. Finally, the US is the sole judge of which party is living up to their obligations under the so called “Roadmap” This role will be tested very quickly as Israel has announced intentions to build 300 apartments in occupied East Jerusalem and has introduced legislation to fund the construction of West Bank “outposts” in violation of the “Roadmap’s” call to freeze settlements. (For this story, click here.) During the conference call, the question was asked “Why did the Arab states attend the Annapolis Conference?” The conventional wisdom has been that they are afraid of Iran and the “Shia crescent” and, therefore, want to support the US in its efforts to contain Iran. Professor Shipley’s opinion, based on conversations with Arab leaders and multiple polls of Arab citizens, is different. Although Arab leaders are concerned about Iran’s growing influence, they are not afraid of Iran and do not feel that there is any danger that Iran will attack them, absent a US/Israeli attack on Iran. The number one priority for the leaders and their people is the resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. They do, however, realize that the American people and their political leaders “just don’t care” if this conflict gets settled. When King Abdullah of Jordan came to the US a few months ago and made a speech about the importance of this issue and the importance of the US in resolving it, he was politely received and then ignored by both politicians and the media. This reinforced the Arab leaders’ view that the only way to get the US’s attention is to create linkage between Arab support for containing Iran and a solution to the Israeli/Palestinian issue. Only this will give the US the will to truly engage in helping to solve this intractable problem. Perhaps paranoia is a good thing.