Photo Op II: The sequel

This week major developed countries met in Paris for a “donor’s conference” / “photo op” designed to obtain financial support for the Fatah led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. (We will let those in Gaza starve) The PA had requested $5.6b of aid and the participants pledged $7.4b over 3 years. Although it is not clear how much of this will actually be forthcoming and how much is just a restatement of previous pledges, it is still a significant amount of money. Tony Blair declared, “This is not a donor’s conference. This is a state building conference”. Even if this money actually appeared, it is not clear to me that it would have much impact on building a viable Palestinian state. PA President Mahmoud Abbas and his Prime Minister Salaam Fayad have frankly stated that most of the money will go towards closing the yawning PA budget deficit and not toward economic development projects. The PA runs this huge deficit not only because of mismanagement and corruption, but also because the West Bank economy is almost non existent. With no economy, tax revenues are limited and unemployment approaches 50%. Therefore, the PA becomes the employer of last resort. Unless conditions on the ground change dramatically, no amount of international funding will create a viable economy and Palestinian state. Early in his first term George Bush declared his support for a viable Palestinian state, living alongside Israel in peace and security. When a friend of mine heard this, he took George Bush at his word. (Probably not the smartest thing that he has ever done.) He decided that if this is really going to happen, we had better figure out what it will take to create a viable economy in the West Bank and Gaza and he commissioned a Rand Corporation study to accomplish this. After several years of work Rand completed the study and created their report. They tried to incorporate the strengths of the Palestinian people, education, healthcare, entrepreneurial spirit, etc., into a plan that could be implemented with international financial support. One of the primary conclusions of the study was that there must be a modern transportation and communications system linking the major population centers of Nablus, Ramallah, Bethlehem, Hebron and Gaza. The report said nothing about settlements, bypass roads, and checkpoints. I said to my friend, “Didn’t they assume away the problem?” His answer was that Rand, not a minor player in government studies business, was afraid to raise the issues. They were concerned that, given the political climate in the US, if the report talked about eliminating settlements, bypass roads and checkpoints, it would be a non starter with the US government. It turned out to be a non starter anyway as the State Department said that they had no interest in even looking at it. As the issue of freezing settlement construction surfaces after the Annapolis Conference, it is clear that Israel intends to retain East Jerusalem and all the major settlement blocks and to continue construction apace. We have been reduced to arguing about what the meaning of “freeze” is. (Sort of like what is the meaning of “is”?) (For this story, click here and here.) Unless the US exerts significant pressure to change the facts on the ground we will be back in Paris (or some other fancy resort) again in three years trying to deal with a Palestinian economy on life support.

Testing, testing, testing

To no one’s surprise, the agreement to begin a new round of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians with the US as the final judge of who is living up to their obligations is being tested right away. This is probably a good thing as we can avoid wasting a lot of time, effort and money if nothing can come of the talks. The Israeli government is the first to be tested. Immediately after the Annapolis conference a group of right wing Israelis held a demonstration on a hilltop in the E-1 area. The E-1 area is a relatively undeveloped area between the major settlement blocks on the West Bank, such as Maale Adummim and Gilo, and the city of Jerusalem. The Israeli government has long planned to develop the area and has confiscated some Palestinian land and built some structures. Last spring as we were returning to Jerusalem from Maale Adummim, our guide pointed out a building on a hilltop. She said that this was a police station that had recently been built by the Israeli government. It had not yet been occupied, but standard Israeli procedure was to build the police station first and then some time later, after criticism had died down, to build the settlement. Development of E-1 is important to those Israelis who see all of Israel/Palestine as land given to the Jews by God. Developing E-1 would effectively split the West Bank in two and preclude a viable Palestinian state. The purpose of the demonstration by Israeli right wing activists was to put a shot across the bow of the Israeli government to warn them not to even think about stopping development of E-1. (For this story, click here) The US government commitment to a successful “peace process” is also being tested right away. As the world leaders were meeting in Annapolis, the Israeli government announced a tender for bids to build 300 apartments for Jews in the Har Homa/Abu Ghneim area of East Jerusalem, the Arab area of Jerusalem wanted by the PA as the capital of a future Palestinian state. (The Parliament building has already been built.) The issuing of the tender was condemned by the international community, including the US. The Israeli response has been that this is not a violation of the agreed settlement freeze as Israel has annexed East Jerusalem and therefore this is not settlement activity. The annexation is not recognized by the international community including, of all people, the US. This is not the first time we have been down this road in Har Homa/Abu Ghneim. In 1997 the Israeli government commenced apartment construction in this area. The Clinton administration strongly objected and pressured the Israeli government to cease the activity. Evidently Israel’s supporters in the US explained to the administration that this position was hazardous to their political health. The US backed off and when a UN Security Council resolution was introduced condemning the construction the US vetoed it. All this took place when Ehud Olmert was mayor of Jerusalem. I visited this area in May and saw the resulting development. Our guide explained that many of the apartments have been sold to American Jews from NY and NJ as second homes. I doubt if the buyers were told that their neighbors would be hostile Palestinian Arabs. (For this story, click here ) Will anyone take steps to respond to these tests in a manner that will prevent a breakdown of the “peace process” before it even starts? I doubt it. But there is always hope. Even the Arbiter in Chief Condoleezza Rice is only hoping for the best. (For Condi’s hopes click here.)

Contemplating from Gaza

For those are interested in what is happening in Gaza under Hamas control and Israeli blockade, I recommend the blog site Contemplating from Gaza. I have posted a link in the link section to the left. Heba is a wife and mother in Gaza who posts her feelings and impressions periodically.

Paranoia: A good thing?

The news this week has been dominated by reaction to the release of the National Intelligence Estimate that declared that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program four years ago and would not be able obtain a nuclear weapon, even if it wanted one, until the 2013-2015 timeframe. The reaction from the US government was that Iran still remains a “grave threat” and is presents a danger of starting WW III. Many commentators have expressed the view that this reaction is a good example of “I have my policy, don’t confuse me with the facts” or “irrational paranoia”. Perhaps, however, in this case, paranoia is a good thing. I participated in a conference call today with Professor Shipley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor of Peace and Development at the University of Maryland on the subject of “Annapolis and Beyond”. During the discussion it was clear that it is crucial that the US weigh in as a player during the “peace process” envisioned at Annapolis. The US role is crucial for several reasons. First and foremost, there is an enormous “power asymmetry” between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the negotiations. The US must balance this asymmetry if there is to be a just settlement that can be accepted by the Palestinian people. Second, Prime Minister Abbas has put all his eggs in the US basket and the US has put all its eggs in his basket. If the US fails, Abbas is finished and Hamas is waiting on the sidelines to say “I told you so”. Third, Israel is responsive only to the US. Without US pressure Israel has no incentive to negotiate a settlement. The power imbalance makes it very likely that they can weather any violent response by Hamas and other militants. Finally, the US is the sole judge of which party is living up to their obligations under the so called “Roadmap” This role will be tested very quickly as Israel has announced intentions to build 300 apartments in occupied East Jerusalem and has introduced legislation to fund the construction of West Bank “outposts” in violation of the “Roadmap’s” call to freeze settlements. (For this story, click here.) During the conference call, the question was asked “Why did the Arab states attend the Annapolis Conference?” The conventional wisdom has been that they are afraid of Iran and the “Shia crescent” and, therefore, want to support the US in its efforts to contain Iran. Professor Shipley’s opinion, based on conversations with Arab leaders and multiple polls of Arab citizens, is different. Although Arab leaders are concerned about Iran’s growing influence, they are not afraid of Iran and do not feel that there is any danger that Iran will attack them, absent a US/Israeli attack on Iran. The number one priority for the leaders and their people is the resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. They do, however, realize that the American people and their political leaders “just don’t care” if this conflict gets settled. When King Abdullah of Jordan came to the US a few months ago and made a speech about the importance of this issue and the importance of the US in resolving it, he was politely received and then ignored by both politicians and the media. This reinforced the Arab leaders’ view that the only way to get the US’s attention is to create linkage between Arab support for containing Iran and a solution to the Israeli/Palestinian issue. Only this will give the US the will to truly engage in helping to solve this intractable problem. Perhaps paranoia is a good thing.