Is something positive happening?

There seem to be some events happening in the Middle East that give even a pessimist like me some hope that sanity might prevail in the midst of all the past irrationality. The US has said that it will release nine of the Iranian terrorists, spies, diplomats or whatever that we captured, kidnapped, detained or whatever in Iraq over recent months. The holding of these Iranians has been a bone of contention between the US and Iran since it began several months ago. The Iraqi government has supported the Iranian position. In addition, US military spokespersons have indicated that there is evidence of Iran reducing its support for Shia militias within Iraq. Perhaps both countries are beginning to realize that the aggressive confrontation is counter productive. From both the US and Iranian standpoints the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan with the increasing power of the Taliban is dangerous and undesirable. Pakistan and George Bush’s friend, Pervez Mushareff, are becoming less reliable US allies and Pakistan is increasingly in danger of coming under the sway of radical Islamist groups friendly to Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. To have both countries bordering Afghanistan be adversaries would be disastrous for the US and NATO. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have let his celebrity go to his head and overreached. He may have forgotten that the real power in Iran rests with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei. Trying to understand the opaque and factional politics of Iran is hopeless, but criticism of the forced resignation of respected nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani by the Supreme Leader and the critical letter signed by 183 members of the Majlis or Parliament may indicate that Ahmadinejad’s confrontive style may be wearing thin. The conservative pragmatists, such as Hassani Rafsanjani, may be exerting some influence. Hopefully the US will not ignore any overtures from them as we have in the past. In Israel/Palestine the Palestinian Authority is beginning to disarm fighters on the West Bank as Hamas has done in Gaza. If the PA disarms everybody and not just Hamas supporters, it could significantly reduce the violence. The US has condemned (Condemned might be a little strong, but given the usual non reaction towards Israeli behavior it may be descriptive.) Israel’s continued raids into Nablus (a city where security has been turned over to the PA) and the IDF’s confiscation of PA security force equipment. (For this story, click here) If the PA takes more responsibility for its own security and the US takes a more balanced approach, something might come out of the Annapolis meeting. Call me a Pollyanna, but perhaps something positive might be happening. Then again, perhaps not.