Lowering expectations

One of the issues that President Elect Obama will have to deal with in the Middle East is that of high expectations. Except in Israel, the election of a black man with the middle name Hussein, with a background that included Kenya and Indonesia to the most powerful office in the world has been greeted with great happiness and high hopes for significant changes to American policy in the region. In Syria the headlines blared “Abu Hussein wins” and a countdown to the end of the Bush administration began on the front pages. In Egypt we were told by a member of the Egyptian Institute on Foreign Policy “Obama is a rock star”.
Political leaders certainly recognize that there are limitations on the ability of any President to make changes to American foreign policy. He does not operate in a vacuum. Advisors, Congress, lobbying groups and corporations will all have input. He will face many competing priorities, a crisis in the American and worldwide economies, unpopular and messy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, reform of the healthcare system, etc. The Chief of Staff of the Arab League told us that “Our biggest challenge is to lower expectations.”
Obama has helped to lower expectations with some of his early appointments. The appointment of ardent Zionist Rahm Emmanuel as Chief of Staff was greeted with uniform disappointment and comments of “more of the same”. A shepherd in the South Hebron hills on the West Bank, who lives with his extended family in tents after having been evicted several times from his land by Jewish settlers and the IDF, when asked about his expectations for change said, “Not great. He has surrounded himself with Zionist Jews”. (How he even knew that, much less its implications, was not clear to anyone.)
The news that Hilary Clinton would be Secretary of State was greeted with a rolling of eyes and shaking of heads.
Despite these disappointments, the news is not all bad. (One has to be a perpetual optimist in this region.) Although the Bush policies have been a complete disaster for the region, he has managed to leave the incoming Obama administration in a better position than he inherited from the Clinton administration. Bush inherited a 2nd Intifada and failed Israeli/Palestinian talks at Camp David and Taba whereas the Obama administration inherits ongoing Israel-Palestinian talks (albeit with no results) and a fragile cease fire in Gaza.
All is not bad on the appointments front. Hilary Clinton is a very bright person who certainly understands the failures of her husband’s policies. National Security Advisor designate General Jim Jones has been engaged as an envoy in the region and certainly understands what is happening, what is not and why.
Whether they will be willing and able to translate this knowledge into policies that better reflect US national interest is uncertain. The mantra of many in the Middle East is probably applicable. “We are hopeful, but we will have to wait and see.”

Signals

Amman, Jordan: One thing that is evident in this part of the world is that there are completely unrealistic expectations for an Obama presidency. Following the election, the Cairo weekly English language paper had a banner headline, “A Dream Come True”.
The US embassy personnel have told us that they are making an effort to reduce expectations. They are explaining that US policy is not made solely by the President. Many people and organizations influence the process. Lobbying groups, corporations, advisors, the State Department and others will have a say and even if a new policy is put in place it will take time to implement it.
Nevertheless, in the wake of the wave of hope for a new US policy approach in the Middle East there has been much signaling of a willingness to engage in dialogue.
On the Iranian front, President Ahmadinajad sent is congratulations to President Elect Obama. This is the first time that has happened since the Iranian revolution. The Iranian President is under domestic criticism and pressure for his bellicose rhetoric and the poor performance of the economy and a thawing of relations with the US might help him in the upcoming elections. Obama did not respond and gave the party line on Iran’s nuclear program. The Iranians returned to criticizing Obama, but it didn’t seem to have the same passion.
For the American part a US military officer was quoted as saying “The US needs an interlocutor in Afghanistan. We need to take the views of the Iranians into account. They don’t want a radical Sunni regime in Afghanistan any more than we do.”

In our meeting with Hezbollah Foreign Affairs Director Nawef Mousawi, he responded to a suggestion that they might make a gesture that would assist President Obama in implementing a change in policy by saying “That is interesting to me. I would be open to suggestions.”
The next day this Hezbollah release appeared in the Beirut media:

Mousawi says Hezbollah is ready for dialogue with US if it is recognized and respected

Hezbollah foreign relations officer Nawaf Mousawi said the "Resistance had forced a change in the American behavior in the region."Following a meeting with a delegation from the US Council for the National Interest, headed by former ambassador Edward Peck, Mousawi said that Hezbollah looks forward to setting up relations with all people on the basis of mutual recognition and respect.On the new American policy in the region, he said, "We know that wrong policies which were adopted in the past have been reviewed.""We have shown our desire for dialogue if Hezbollah is considered a resistance movement against Israeli occupation and aggression and a Lebanese political party”. He added, “The Washington based fair minded American delegation we met with yesterday joined us in dialogue on the facts as we see them and Hezbollah is grateful for that. We welcome more dialogue and frank discussions with such Americans”.
Although it is never clear that there can be a positive outcome from dialogue, one can only hope that the US is not “tone deaf” to the signals.

Our man in Washington

Beirut, Lebanon: One of the questions that I have been asking the Lebanese that I have encountered is “What is your reaction to the election of Barak Obama as President of the United States?” People tell me that the initial reaction of most Lebanese and the thousands of American ex-pats who live and work in Lebanon was one of ecstasy.
American ambassador to Lebanon Michelle Sison told us that on Election Day they had a party for the ex-pat community at which they had two jars of buttons, one for McCain and one for Obama. At the end of the night all of the Obama buttons were gone, but they had plenty of McCain buttons left over.
As time has passed, reality has set in that not much may change in US policy toward the region. They now say “We will wait and see”.
This reality was reinforced by the Obama announcement that he would appoint Illinois Congressman Rahm Emmanual as his Chief of Staff. While the western media has focused on his partisan political stance, his abrasive personality and his colorful language, the media in the region has been more concerned with his background and history.
Emmanual is an ardent Zionist and supporter of AIPAC’s hard right views. He is the son on a Chicago doctor who was a member of the Irgun, the Zionist guerilla/terrorist organization who fought the British during the founding of Israel. Arab concerns were not assuaged when Dr. Emmanual said, when asked about the Jewish community’s view of Chief of Staff Emmanual, “He is our man in Washington”.
We asked General Michel Aoun, former Prime Minister and the leader of a Lebanese Christian party allied with Hezbollah, what he hoped for from the early days of an Obama administration. He said “stop aggression, stop interfering in Lebanon, and stop Israeli settlements”. He and we will have to wait and see.

Change you can believe in?

Senator Barak Obama’s recent trip to the Middle East and Europe has been closely followed not only by the US media, but also by Arab media and the average Arab on the street. The initial optimism of Middle Easterners about the potential of an Obama presidency to bring about “change” to American Middle Eastern foreign policy and to be a catalyst for peace in the region has gradually waned as Senator Obama has bowed to the political realities of running for President and has shifted his policy accordingly.

The shift began shortly after he became the presumptive Democratic nominee when, in a speech before the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, he declared that “Jerusalem will be the eternal capital of Israel and it must remain undivided”. Since Palestinians see East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state, this position is a deal breaker and even the Bush administration has not been willing to go there. A few days later, after much criticism, his campaign “clarified” the statement by saying that he did not mean to preempt final status negotiations.

Palestinians and Arabs in general were wondering what he would say when he was in Israel/Palestine and actually saw the wall and had to talk to Israelis and Palestinians. The results only served to reinforce their belief that it doesn’t matter who is elected, nothing will change. With respect to Jerusalem he said “I continue to say Jerusalem will be the capital of Israel. I have said that before and will say it again”.

In dealing with Israeli concerns about his willingness to talk to Iran without preconditions, Haaretz reported that he told Prime Minister Olmert that he wanted to meet with Iran “to issue a clear ultimatum”. After that “any action against them would be legitimate”. This sounds as hawkish as George Bush and Dick Cheney.

Even his choice of advisors sends the message that nothing will change with respect to Middle East policy in an Obama administration. Obama said “I get my Middle East advice from Dennis Ross”. Dennis Ross was an architect of the failed policies of the Bush Sr. and Clinton administrations and is currently a counselor at the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is likely to advocate for the same old policies.

Arabs are probably right when they say “nothing will change”. As Palestinian leader Mustafa Barghouti commented, “Senator Obama seems to be in favor of change everywhere except Israel/Palestine”.