A Wave of Change in the Middle East

As the Middle East, literally, goes up in flames the Obama administration is struggling with how to react to the inevitable outcome of decades of failed Middle East policies. Nowhere was this struggle more evident than during an embarrassing performance by VP Joe Biden throughout an interview on the PBS Newshour. (The whole interview is here) The normally voluble Biden, who rarely has his brain engaged when he opens his mouth, was parsing every word and trying his best not to say anything quotable. This effort failed when he declared that Hosni Mubarak, who, with US backing, has ruled Egypt as the sole center of power for over 30 years, was not a dictator.

The demonstrations against undemocratic authoritarian regimes, that have been propped up by billions of dollars of US aid have spread across North Africa and the Middle East. Starting in Tunisia, the uprisings have spread to Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and Yemen. The decades long policy of supporting these unpopular regimes as a buffer against resistance groups who oppose US/Israeli dominance in the region and as an ally in the “global war on terror”, has made the US extremely unpopular with the man on the street. 85% of respondents to a recent poll had an unfavorable or very unfavorable view of the US and over 60% see US policy toward Israel/Palestine as the most disappointing.

It is, therefore, inevitable that any representative government in the region is going to oppose US policy of unquestioned support for Israel. Egypt and Jordan are the key players here as they have peace treaties with Israel and have aided the US/Israel blockade of Gaza and occupation of the West Bank. If the current regimes are replaced by representative governments, this game is over. Trying to defend the indefensible is recipe for disaster for US strategic interests in the region.

It is long past time for the US to seek new approaches and new partners. The US needs to listen to Turkey with its policy of “zero problems with its neighbors”, reverse its policy of confrontation with Iran and engage with non-state players like Hamas and Hezbollah. Creative, out of the box thinking is required by administration officials. Unfortunately, long careers inside the beltway are not conducive to this kind of thinking. We will probably defend these regimes to the bitter end, just as we did with the Shah of Iran, with similar outcomes.

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