As the referendum on the separation of South Sudan from the north appears to be reaching a relatively peaceful conclusion after years of unrest and civil war, we may be witnessing a rare US foreign policy success. The conflict between the central government of Sudan and the tribal regions in the south and west is long standing and dates to British colonial rule. The British colonial authorities concentrated power in Khartoum and disadvantaged the outlying areas. This pattern continued after independence.
Shortly after taking office in 2009, President Obama appointed, with much fanfare, a number of “special envoys” with responsibility for managing specific foreign policy issues. These included the late Richard Holbrooke in Afghanistan and Pakistan, George Mitchell in Israel/Palestine and Dennis Ross in Iran. Without much fanfare he also appointed General J. Scott Gratian as special envoy to Sudan.
At the time, some of us asked the question, what circumstances and qualities need to be in place for a special envoy to be successful? I concluded that in order to have any possibility of success there needs to be the right situation, the right envoy and support at the top. None of these were in place for Holbrooke, Mitchell and Ross. However, in the case of General Gratian we had a low key envoy who was willing to work with all parties to find a solution. The situation in Sudan was relatively isolated from outside influences and General Gratian appears to have had the support of both Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama.
As Gratian and his fellow diplomats assigned to this issue, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson and special envoy Princeton Lyman, worked to forge compromises among the Sudanese and to persuade the influential Chinese that it was in their interest to have a peaceful and stable outcome, Clinton and Obama had his back. This allowed him to fend off attacks by UN Ambassador Susan Rice and the Save Darfur activists who seemed to want to blow up the whole deal by attacking Sudan.
While there seems to be good will emerging on all sides, a peaceful outcome is clearly not a done deal. The Abyei border region between north and south is a volatile mixture of oil, long standing tribal animosities and nomadic versus settled lifestyle. Finding a peaceful, workable solution in an area in which everybody has a weapon will be a difficult task. If Gratian and his team can accomplish this, I would nominate them for the Nobel Prize. As opposed to most recent prize winners, they will have actually accomplished something for the cause of peace.
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