Happy Holidays

At this time of year, the Christian world observes the birth of an itinerate Jewish prophet 2000 years ago. According to legend, he was born in Bethlehem, a small village outside of Jerusalem, after his family made the  journey from Nazareth in the Galilee to Bethlehem. This is a journey that they could not have made today since the Israeli separation  barrier cuts Bethlehem off from Jerusalem. The Israeli Ministry of Tourism, with a wonderful sense of irony, reminds us of the meaning of Bethlehem for Christians by posting a sign saying “Peace be with you” on the barrier.

Jesus was born into a region that was experiencing a brutal occupation, not all that different from what is happening today. One wonders if his mother felt the same sense of doubt about the wisdom of bringing another human life into the world in that environment that was expressed to me by young Palestinian women.

There were numerous other Jewish Messiahs in Palestine 2000 years ago who advocated overthrow of the Roman occupation and liberation of the Jews by force of arms. Interestingly, the only one who is remembered today is Jesus of Nazareth.

Jesus advocated for a different approach to confronting the occupation. The Roman model was “peace through victory”. Jesus proposed a model based on loving God and your neighbor as yourself. He reminded his followers to do good to those that hate you and to turn the other cheek. After seeing the threat that this approach posed for the Roman Empire and what   it resulted in for Jesus, most of us have decided to abandon it.

President Obama seemed to be taking us back to the Roman times when he said in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech “Instruments of war do have a role in preserving peace”. During this holiday time Christians and their Jewish and Muslim cousins pray for “peace on earth and good will toward men”. The problem is that after the New Year, we pack up this concept along with the holiday decorations and go back to shooting at each other. We haven’t learned much in 2000 years.

Merry Christmas

What now Iran?

Over the past six months, the “green” protest movement in Iran has morphed from a protest against the disputed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a movement calling for the overthrow of the Islamic regime. The chants have changed from “Down with Russia and China” to “Down with the dictator Khamenei”. Beginning with the Student Day (December 7 on the western calendar) protests, the protesters have seemed to become more radical and the green color of Mir Hussein Mousavi’s campaign is less in evidence.

When I was in Iran two years ago, most people that I talked to wanted to see the regime change, but did not want another revolution. While there was no agreement about what the best form of government would be, most people would have been comfortable with a reformed Islamic republic. This may no longer be possible.

Iran is a country with over 70 ethnic, tribal and religious groups. In terms of diversity it makes Iraq look like a cohesive state. The binding glue of the state is its Persian history and its overwhelming majority of Shia Muslims. If “regime change” occurs, without a government emerging that reflects at least one of these factors, chaos that makes Iraq look like a “cake walk” is possible.

The opposition is beginning to believe that overthrow of the regime is possible. More and more I am seeing “this regime is history”. The riot police are beginning to show the “V” sign of the opposition. A quote from Iran’s revered poet Ferdosi “When a person’s (regime’s) end comes, the things they do will do them no good” is everywhere on Twitter.

The opposition movement is a leaderless movement and so no one will naturally appear to assume power. Mousavi was originally anointed as the leader, primarily because his wife motivated the women. The movement now seems to have gone by him. A similar phenomenon occurred during the 1979 revolution when only an invasion by Sadaam Hussein’s Iraq rallied the people around the government and solidified the position of Khomeini and the Islamists.

Israel and the US appear to be positioning themselves to fulfill Sadaam Hussein’s role of uniting the Iranians. In 1979, the US began a policy of engagement with Iran, but this was torpedoed by the Israel Lobby and their Congressional allies. We seem to be on the same path. (This story is here) Obama had better start thinking about what sort of outcome he would like to see and what policies make the most sense.

The Afghanistan Dilemma

Last week President Obama outlined his so called “surge and exit” strategy for turning around the deteriorating situation in the 8 year war in Afghanistan. The surge side of the equation is being promptly implemented by the US and its European allies. The exit side is a little more problematic. Faced with criticism from Republican hawks, Secretary of Defense Gates and Secretary of State Clinton attempted to frame the July 2011 “exit” date as decision point rather that a hard date for withdrawal. The major accomplishment of the “new” is to kick the can down the road.

Given the fact that the Army/Marine Corp counter insurgency manual, authored by current CentCom commander General David Petraus, calls for troop levels somewhere north of 600,000 and a 7-10 year time frame, one might be forgiven for being skeptical of a significant 18 month turnaround with 150,000 troops.

The strategy outlined by the administration is reminiscent of the Soviet Union strategy during their ill fated Afghanistan adventure in the 1980’s; control and stabilize the population centers and the highways connecting them and rely on a puppet government in Kabul to take over. While there are similarities to the failed Soviet campaign, there are also differences. The US is not faced with an insurgent force armed and equipped by a major power providing them with Stinger missiles and thus is able to control the air. The US is also attempting to rebuild the country and not destroy it. On the other side, the Soviets were relying on a much more competent government in Kabul.

On balance, the US will probably succeed in stabilizing some population centers and forcing the insurgency into Pakistan and the Afghan countryside where they can be harassed from the air. The major risk to this plan is that in 18 months we will see some progress and the military will come back to Obama and say “See, we are making progress. Just give us another 50,000 troops and another two years and we can “win”. It will be hard for Obama to say no!

I am old enough to remember Vietnam where steady escalation of troops, casualties, and financial commitment finally lead to the conclusion that the war was un-winnable. Obama had only bad choices, but he picked the wrong one.