What now Iran?

Over the past six months, the “green” protest movement in Iran has morphed from a protest against the disputed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a movement calling for the overthrow of the Islamic regime. The chants have changed from “Down with Russia and China” to “Down with the dictator Khamenei”. Beginning with the Student Day (December 7 on the western calendar) protests, the protesters have seemed to become more radical and the green color of Mir Hussein Mousavi’s campaign is less in evidence.

When I was in Iran two years ago, most people that I talked to wanted to see the regime change, but did not want another revolution. While there was no agreement about what the best form of government would be, most people would have been comfortable with a reformed Islamic republic. This may no longer be possible.

Iran is a country with over 70 ethnic, tribal and religious groups. In terms of diversity it makes Iraq look like a cohesive state. The binding glue of the state is its Persian history and its overwhelming majority of Shia Muslims. If “regime change” occurs, without a government emerging that reflects at least one of these factors, chaos that makes Iraq look like a “cake walk” is possible.

The opposition is beginning to believe that overthrow of the regime is possible. More and more I am seeing “this regime is history”. The riot police are beginning to show the “V” sign of the opposition. A quote from Iran’s revered poet Ferdosi “When a person’s (regime’s) end comes, the things they do will do them no good” is everywhere on Twitter.

The opposition movement is a leaderless movement and so no one will naturally appear to assume power. Mousavi was originally anointed as the leader, primarily because his wife motivated the women. The movement now seems to have gone by him. A similar phenomenon occurred during the 1979 revolution when only an invasion by Sadaam Hussein’s Iraq rallied the people around the government and solidified the position of Khomeini and the Islamists.

Israel and the US appear to be positioning themselves to fulfill Sadaam Hussein’s role of uniting the Iranians. In 1979, the US began a policy of engagement with Iran, but this was torpedoed by the Israel Lobby and their Congressional allies. We seem to be on the same path. (This story is here) Obama had better start thinking about what sort of outcome he would like to see and what policies make the most sense.