The Afghanistan Dilemma

Last week President Obama outlined his so called “surge and exit” strategy for turning around the deteriorating situation in the 8 year war in Afghanistan. The surge side of the equation is being promptly implemented by the US and its European allies. The exit side is a little more problematic. Faced with criticism from Republican hawks, Secretary of Defense Gates and Secretary of State Clinton attempted to frame the July 2011 “exit” date as decision point rather that a hard date for withdrawal. The major accomplishment of the “new” is to kick the can down the road.

Given the fact that the Army/Marine Corp counter insurgency manual, authored by current CentCom commander General David Petraus, calls for troop levels somewhere north of 600,000 and a 7-10 year time frame, one might be forgiven for being skeptical of a significant 18 month turnaround with 150,000 troops.

The strategy outlined by the administration is reminiscent of the Soviet Union strategy during their ill fated Afghanistan adventure in the 1980’s; control and stabilize the population centers and the highways connecting them and rely on a puppet government in Kabul to take over. While there are similarities to the failed Soviet campaign, there are also differences. The US is not faced with an insurgent force armed and equipped by a major power providing them with Stinger missiles and thus is able to control the air. The US is also attempting to rebuild the country and not destroy it. On the other side, the Soviets were relying on a much more competent government in Kabul.

On balance, the US will probably succeed in stabilizing some population centers and forcing the insurgency into Pakistan and the Afghan countryside where they can be harassed from the air. The major risk to this plan is that in 18 months we will see some progress and the military will come back to Obama and say “See, we are making progress. Just give us another 50,000 troops and another two years and we can “win”. It will be hard for Obama to say no!

I am old enough to remember Vietnam where steady escalation of troops, casualties, and financial commitment finally lead to the conclusion that the war was un-winnable. Obama had only bad choices, but he picked the wrong one.