Jerusalem, Israel – I came to this part of the world with some preconceived notions about where the discussions about an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians stood. Following the Annapolis conference of a year ago, parties agreed to freeze settlements, upgrade Palestinian security capability and engage in discussions regarding a final status agreement.
In the last year Jewish settlement building has continued apace, some progress has been made on security (much more needs to be done) and discussions have been ongoing between the parties. Secretary of State Rice has been to the region eight times in the interim period and has pronounced that much progress is being made on an agreement and that she expected one before the end of the year. I had asked myself, “Does she know something that I don’t know or is she being a complete Pollyanna?” I had concluded she was a complete Pollyanna.
However, as we traveled through the region, we were told by senior political leaders in Syria, Jordan and Ramallah, including Saeb Erakat, the lead negotiator for the Palestinian authority, that “The deal is 95% done. All that remains are details and the political will to implement the deal.”
Then we talked to the technocrats responsible for the actual negotiating teams. They gave a dose of reality. Nothing is done. For the most part nothing has happened in the past year. The political leaders are making optimistic statements only to prevent complete despair from setting in.
The Israelis believe that time is on their side (which may or may not be true) and therefore are just fighting a delaying action. Time, however, is certainly not on the side of peace. Saeb Erakat said to me, “If we reach an agreement soon, Hamas is gone. If we don’t reach an agreement soon, I am gone”. How do you spell “intifada”?
Friday, November 21, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Signals
Amman, Jordan: One thing that is evident in this part of the world is that there are completely unrealistic expectations for an Obama presidency. Following the election, the Cairo weekly English language paper had a banner headline, “A Dream Come True”.
The US embassy personnel have told us that they are making an effort to reduce expectations. They are explaining that US policy is not made solely by the President. Many people and organizations influence the process. Lobbying groups, corporations, advisors, the State Department and others will have a say and even if a new policy is put in place it will take time to implement it.
Nevertheless, in the wake of the wave of hope for a new US policy approach in the Middle East there has been much signaling of a willingness to engage in dialogue.
On the Iranian front, President Ahmadinajad sent is congratulations to President Elect Obama. This is the first time that has happened since the Iranian revolution. The Iranian President is under domestic criticism and pressure for his bellicose rhetoric and the poor performance of the economy and a thawing of relations with the US might help him in the upcoming elections. Obama did not respond and gave the party line on Iran’s nuclear program. The Iranians returned to criticizing Obama, but it didn’t seem to have the same passion.
For the American part a US military officer was quoted as saying “The US needs an interlocutor in Afghanistan. We need to take the views of the Iranians into account. They don’t want a radical Sunni regime in Afghanistan any more than we do.”
The US embassy personnel have told us that they are making an effort to reduce expectations. They are explaining that US policy is not made solely by the President. Many people and organizations influence the process. Lobbying groups, corporations, advisors, the State Department and others will have a say and even if a new policy is put in place it will take time to implement it.
Nevertheless, in the wake of the wave of hope for a new US policy approach in the Middle East there has been much signaling of a willingness to engage in dialogue.
On the Iranian front, President Ahmadinajad sent is congratulations to President Elect Obama. This is the first time that has happened since the Iranian revolution. The Iranian President is under domestic criticism and pressure for his bellicose rhetoric and the poor performance of the economy and a thawing of relations with the US might help him in the upcoming elections. Obama did not respond and gave the party line on Iran’s nuclear program. The Iranians returned to criticizing Obama, but it didn’t seem to have the same passion.
For the American part a US military officer was quoted as saying “The US needs an interlocutor in Afghanistan. We need to take the views of the Iranians into account. They don’t want a radical Sunni regime in Afghanistan any more than we do.”
In our meeting with Hezbollah Foreign Affairs Director Nawef Mousawi, he responded to a suggestion that they might make a gesture that would assist President Obama in implementing a change in policy by saying “That is interesting to me. I would be open to suggestions.”The next day this Hezbollah release appeared in the Beirut media:
Mousawi says Hezbollah is ready for dialogue with US if it is recognized and respected
Hezbollah foreign relations officer Nawaf Mousawi said the "Resistance had forced a change in the American behavior in the region."Following a meeting with a delegation from the US Council for the National Interest, headed by former ambassador Edward Peck, Mousawi said that Hezbollah looks forward to setting up relations with all people on the basis of mutual recognition and respect.On the new American policy in the region, he said, "We know that wrong policies which were adopted in the past have been reviewed.""We have shown our desire for dialogue if Hezbollah is considered a resistance movement against Israeli occupation and aggression and a Lebanese political party”. He added, “The Washington based fair minded American delegation we met with yesterday joined us in dialogue on the facts as we see them and Hezbollah is grateful for that. We welcome more dialogue and frank discussions with such Americans”.
Although it is never clear that there can be a positive outcome from dialogue, one can only hope that the US is not “tone deaf” to the signals.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Our man in Washington
Beirut, Lebanon: One of the questions that I have been asking the Lebanese that I have encountered is “What is your reaction to the election of Barak Obama as President of the United States?” People tell me that the initial reaction of most Lebanese and the thousands of American ex-pats who live and work in Lebanon was one of ecstasy.
American ambassador to Lebanon Michelle Sison told us that on Election Day they had a party for the ex-pat community at which they had two jars of buttons, one for McCain and one for Obama. At the end of the night all of the Obama buttons were gone, but they had plenty of McCain buttons left over.
As time has passed, reality has set in that not much may change in US policy toward the region. They now say “We will wait and see”.
This reality was reinforced by the Obama announcement that he would appoint Illinois Congressman Rahm Emmanual as his Chief of Staff. While the western media has focused on his partisan political stance, his abrasive personality and his colorful language, the media in the region has been more concerned with his background and history.
Emmanual is an ardent Zionist and supporter of AIPAC’s hard right views. He is the son on a Chicago doctor who was a member of the Irgun, the Zionist guerilla/terrorist organization who fought the British during the founding of Israel. Arab concerns were not assuaged when Dr. Emmanual said, when asked about the Jewish community’s view of Chief of Staff Emmanual, “He is our man in Washington”.
We asked General Michel Aoun, former Prime Minister and the leader of a Lebanese Christian party allied with Hezbollah, what he hoped for from the early days of an Obama administration. He said “stop aggression, stop interfering in Lebanon, and stop Israeli settlements”. He and we will have to wait and see.
American ambassador to Lebanon Michelle Sison told us that on Election Day they had a party for the ex-pat community at which they had two jars of buttons, one for McCain and one for Obama. At the end of the night all of the Obama buttons were gone, but they had plenty of McCain buttons left over.
As time has passed, reality has set in that not much may change in US policy toward the region. They now say “We will wait and see”.
This reality was reinforced by the Obama announcement that he would appoint Illinois Congressman Rahm Emmanual as his Chief of Staff. While the western media has focused on his partisan political stance, his abrasive personality and his colorful language, the media in the region has been more concerned with his background and history.
Emmanual is an ardent Zionist and supporter of AIPAC’s hard right views. He is the son on a Chicago doctor who was a member of the Irgun, the Zionist guerilla/terrorist organization who fought the British during the founding of Israel. Arab concerns were not assuaged when Dr. Emmanual said, when asked about the Jewish community’s view of Chief of Staff Emmanual, “He is our man in Washington”.
We asked General Michel Aoun, former Prime Minister and the leader of a Lebanese Christian party allied with Hezbollah, what he hoped for from the early days of an Obama administration. He said “stop aggression, stop interfering in Lebanon, and stop Israeli settlements”. He and we will have to wait and see.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The Road Ahead
During my upcoming trip to the Middle East, it will be interesting to hear the reaction to Barak Obama’s election victory and his assumption of the role of President Elect. Although most Middle Easterners have favored an Obama victory, they have not held out much hope that a change in US administration will result in a serious change in policy.
Predicting the policies and actions of elected politicians is always a risky venture. Campaign rhetoric is probably the least reliable vehicle for understanding the views of a politician. A politician friend of mine once said that “Promises made in the heat of the campaign are retrievable”.
I learned this the hard way when I believed George W. Bush in 2000 when he was critical of Clinton administration efforts at nation building in the Balkans by using military force and advocated for “a more humble foreign policy”.
One way to get a feel for the policies of a President is to look at the advisors and staff people that are part of his team. Presidents cannot be experts in all of the complicated issues that they will face and therefore must surround themselves with people that they trust, listen to and weigh their advice before making a decision.
In an Obama administration, if Middle East advisors are architects of the Clinton administration policies such as Martin Indyck and Dennis Ross, the policies will likely look a lot like the failed Clinton policies. If the advisors are Democratic hawks like Richard Holbrook and Kenneth Pollack, the policies will likely look a lot like Bush administration policies. In either event, not much positive will happen.
On the other hand, if senior advisors include people like Susan Rice, an articulate young black woman, (Obama people like to say “Our Dr. Rice is smarter that their Dr. Rice”.) policies may be more even handed and moderate. Ms Rice is a former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the Clinton administration and thus brings a different perspective to the issues. She is more likely to relate to the plight of the oppressed and disadvantaged.
The next few weeks will be interesting. Stay tuned.
Predicting the policies and actions of elected politicians is always a risky venture. Campaign rhetoric is probably the least reliable vehicle for understanding the views of a politician. A politician friend of mine once said that “Promises made in the heat of the campaign are retrievable”.
I learned this the hard way when I believed George W. Bush in 2000 when he was critical of Clinton administration efforts at nation building in the Balkans by using military force and advocated for “a more humble foreign policy”.
One way to get a feel for the policies of a President is to look at the advisors and staff people that are part of his team. Presidents cannot be experts in all of the complicated issues that they will face and therefore must surround themselves with people that they trust, listen to and weigh their advice before making a decision.
In an Obama administration, if Middle East advisors are architects of the Clinton administration policies such as Martin Indyck and Dennis Ross, the policies will likely look a lot like the failed Clinton policies. If the advisors are Democratic hawks like Richard Holbrook and Kenneth Pollack, the policies will likely look a lot like Bush administration policies. In either event, not much positive will happen.
On the other hand, if senior advisors include people like Susan Rice, an articulate young black woman, (Obama people like to say “Our Dr. Rice is smarter that their Dr. Rice”.) policies may be more even handed and moderate. Ms Rice is a former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the Clinton administration and thus brings a different perspective to the issues. She is more likely to relate to the plight of the oppressed and disadvantaged.
The next few weeks will be interesting. Stay tuned.
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