The Free One

Recently the US government’s Arabic language broadcasting network “Al Hurra” (The Free One) has come under fire for wasting the $600 mm spent since 2004 and for some of its content. Al Hurra was established by the US government in 2004 to provide an alternative to Arabic language satellite channels that were perceived to be providing a distorted picture of America to their viewers. Actually the problem wasn’t that Al Arabyia, Al Jazeera etc. were providing a distorted view, but that they were showing reality. Rather than showing a sanitized view of war from the perspective of the military, they provided the perspective of the civilian populations impacted by war.
They showed the blood flowing in the streets of Baghdad during the early phase of the Iraq invasion. They showed the body parts of Lebanese children blown apart by Israeli bombs during the 2006 war. They not only showed Israeli houses in Sderot blown up by Hamas launched missiles, but also starving children in Gaza after the Israeli blockade.
Some people have concluded that the US Pentagon was so enraged by the coverage of the Iraq invasion that they bombed the Al Jazeera headquarters in Baghdad killing several correspondents. (The documentary film “Control Room” provides a compelling narrative of Al Jazeera in Iraq.)
Under Secretary of State James Glassman said the goal of Al Hurra was to show the people of 22 Middle Eastern countries “what a free press is like”. Actually Al Hurra is not “free press”, but state controlled press. As in Iran, there are “red lines” that they cannot cross without risking being shut down.
A news director was forced to resign after airing a speech by Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah. Congress has threatened to cut off funding because the Al Hurra has allowed a talk show guest to express a negative view of Israel’s behavior and has covered a conference in Tehran of Holocaust deniers.
I asked a friend of mine who spent his diplomatic career with the US Information Agency specializing in public diplomacy what he thought of Al Hurra. His comments were that projects like this are “Keystone cops, they don’t work and are a waste of money”.
A young Middle Easterner who I talked to would agree with him. This young man said to me “I love the American music, but when the politics comes on, I turn it off.”

Nobody's listening

Over the past few weeks, it has become increasingly clear that US clout in the Middle East is declining rapidly. President Bush has made a number of pronouncements regarding the US position on many of the issues in this volatile part of the world and friend and foe alike have completely ignored him.
The US has strongly supported the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his March 14 coalition and encouraged them to confront Iranian supported Hezbollah. He called Hezbollah “terrorists funded by Iran" and "the enemy of a free Lebanon”. This confrontational approach led to an ongoing governmental crisis in Lebanon which only ended when Siniora ignored the US and negotiated with Hezbollah. The Qatar brokered agreement resulted in Hezbollah acquiring a blocking position on any government decisions and changed the election law in such a way that Hezbollah will probably be strengthened in the next election.
George Bush continued his confrontational approach to Iran and Syria saying “Every peaceful nation in the region has an interest in stopping these nations from supporting terrorism." Shortly thereafter Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki visited Tehran and Israel and Syria announced that they were conducting peace negotiations brokered by Turkey.
In Sharm El Sheikh President Bush said “all nations in the region should stand together against Hamas”, a group which he said “was attempting to undermine efforts at making peace”. This week Israel negotiated a truce agreement with Hamas mediated by Egypt which defacto recognized the Hamas role in Gaza and the Palestinian Territories.
The US has tried to encourage democracy and human rights in the Middle East without much success. US ally Egypt has prevented members of the Muslim Brotherhood from participating in elections over the last two years realizing that the cost of ignoring the US is low. As one senior Egyptian official said “We’ve heard these speeches before”.
Nobody knows whether or not these agreements will hold, but maybe the good news is that countries in the region have realized that years of having the US be the major player in the region have brought them nothing but war and suffering. They may have concluded that they have to ignore the US and take matters in their own hands and solve their own problems.

Why now?

This week the level of saber rattling over Iran’s nuclear program escalated dramatically. We have heard the saber rattling before as Senator McCain said that he would “bomb, bomb, bomb” Iran and Senator Clinton said that she would “obliterate” Iran. (See a couple of pictures of what would be obliterated) This, however, is campaign rhetoric and may not reflect current government policy.
This week, though, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz announced that an Israeli attack on Iran was “unavoidable” and if Iran continued its nuclear program “we will attack it”. This isn’t just Israel talking as aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said following recent meetings with George Bush that the US and Israel are “forging a common view on Iran”.
My question about this sudden escalation is “why now”. Not much has happened on the Iranian side. They continue to enrich uranium and have refused to stop despite sanctions. The UN IAEA still has questions. Iran still insists that the program is peaceful.
The answer may lie with the US political calendar. The Israeli government has been concerned about Barak Obama’s less confrontive posture with Iran. With him now being the presumptive Democratic nominee and with polls showing him leading McCain, the Israelis may see this as their last chance to attack Iran.
If you are Iran, what do you do? Do you sit quietly by and wait for the bombs to fall or do you mount a preemptive strike of your own? Both carry risks, but peaceful options are fading. Provoking an Iranian first strike would make it unnecessary to make a case for war to the American people. This is beginning to sound like an inevitable march to war. George Bush’s last hurrah may be pretty ugly.