Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Does this make sense?

As part of their campaign to justify invading Iraq, the US government maintained that Saddaam Hussein’s government was aiding Al Qaeda and would provide them WMD from their non-existent stockpiles. I believed the assertion that Iraq had WMD; after all it was a “slam dunk”. (Silly me) However, the Al Qaeda claim never made sense to me. Al Qaeda’s ultimate goal is to establish a Sunni Muslim caliphate in the Middle East and more ambitiously in the world. Saddaam Hussein was secular Baathist Socialist. The last thing he would want to see was an Islamic government in the Middle East. Now, in making the case for war in Iran, the US is accusing Iran of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and aiding insurgent groups in Iraq. The Taliban claim also makes no sense to me. The Taliban is a long standing supporter of Al Qaeda and also wants to see a Sunni Islamic caliphate. Iran is a Shia country and considers the Taliban a dangerous adversary. Based on this view, Iran aided US efforts to overthrow the Taliban in Afghanistan. Iran also has poor relations with Pakistan, a supporter of the Taliban, and an ally of the US. (Huh??) As an Iranian government minister said after Pakistan exploded is first nuclear weapon, “That was a Genii that would have been best left in the bottle”. Why would Iran want to support the Taliban efforts to reestablish an enemy state right on its borders? It makes no sense to me. In terms of Iranian activity in Iraq, the Shia groups that Iran has the most influence are the SCIRI and al Dawa. Both of these groups are part of the US supported government of Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki. Muktada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army has more of an Iraqi nationalist agenda and is probably not a strong client of Iran. Although weapons may flow across the long and porous border between Iran and Iraq and the Iranian government has many factions with different agendas, it is hard to imagine that the Iranian government would support insurgents fighting against a government made up of the people with whom it has the best relations. Perhaps one of the lessons learned from the Iraq war debacle is that if it doesn’t make sense, perhaps it isn’t true no matter how many times the US government says it.

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