The danger of soft power

Prior to our recent trip to Iran, my wife and I had many people question our sanity in going to such a dangerous place. We heard comments like “Why would you go there?” and “We will pray for you”. We were also warned in Iran of the dangers, if somewhat tongue in cheek. One afternoon we went to a tea house at the end of one of the beautiful old bridges in Isfahan. As I was talking to the Iranian at the reception desk, he asked where I was from. When I said “America”, he responded with a grin “American. Why would you come here? Don’t you know all Iranians are terrorists?” As I was leaving the tea house and inquired how much I owed him he responded “You are Americans; you are my guests”. Upon our return to JFK airport in NYC the immigration official, when he saw that we had been to Iran, said “Don’t you know that people disappear all the time in Iran?” In some respects these warnings were accurate. Several Iranian-Americans have been arrested and detained in Iran in the last few months. (To see the story, click here and here) These people have been primarily human rights advocates and activists. We also experienced the efforts of the Iranian government to reduce the contact between American citizens and the Iranian people. Many of our meetings with journalists and women’s rights groups were canceled either by the government or by the groups themselves who were afraid of the repercussions of meeting with Americans. The group following ours had all of their meetings canceled. The reason given by the government is that they are afraid that contact with Americans will lead to a “velvet or soft revolution” such as occurred in the Soviet Union. The government is afraid that by engaging with the young and restless Iranian population Americans could create a non-violent regime change. The US government, however, seems to be on a completely different path and seems to being to doing its best to sustain the unpopular regime. US and international sanctions give the Iranian regime a scapegoat for their bad economic policies. Efforts to undermine the regime with propaganda and collusion with outside opposition groups, who have little support within Iran, give the mullahs an excuse for their repressive policies. US refusal to recognize Iranian rights under the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), military threats and saber rattling tend to solidify popular support behind the regime. It is these types of policies that have succeeded in keeping Fidel Castro in power in Cuba for 50 years. Some Iranians say that the regime would like to see the US attack Iran as it would unite the population against the “Great Satan”. The greatest danger to the regime, as the regime itself admits, is engagement with Americans. The current government might well fall of its own weight. All Iranians that I talked to wanted this to be a peaceful transition created by Iranians. They said “The last thing we need is another revolution. It would set us back 30 years” and “A new government must not be seen as a creation of the west. If it were seen as sponsored by the US, it would have no legitimacy”. The Islamic regime has gradually moderated since the revolution. As one Iranian said to me “We are going through a difficult time now, but this too will pass. Democracy is not a pill that you take.”