Change you can believe in?

Senator Barak Obama’s recent trip to the Middle East and Europe has been closely followed not only by the US media, but also by Arab media and the average Arab on the street. The initial optimism of Middle Easterners about the potential of an Obama presidency to bring about “change” to American Middle Eastern foreign policy and to be a catalyst for peace in the region has gradually waned as Senator Obama has bowed to the political realities of running for President and has shifted his policy accordingly.

The shift began shortly after he became the presumptive Democratic nominee when, in a speech before the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, he declared that “Jerusalem will be the eternal capital of Israel and it must remain undivided”. Since Palestinians see East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state, this position is a deal breaker and even the Bush administration has not been willing to go there. A few days later, after much criticism, his campaign “clarified” the statement by saying that he did not mean to preempt final status negotiations.

Palestinians and Arabs in general were wondering what he would say when he was in Israel/Palestine and actually saw the wall and had to talk to Israelis and Palestinians. The results only served to reinforce their belief that it doesn’t matter who is elected, nothing will change. With respect to Jerusalem he said “I continue to say Jerusalem will be the capital of Israel. I have said that before and will say it again”.

In dealing with Israeli concerns about his willingness to talk to Iran without preconditions, Haaretz reported that he told Prime Minister Olmert that he wanted to meet with Iran “to issue a clear ultimatum”. After that “any action against them would be legitimate”. This sounds as hawkish as George Bush and Dick Cheney.

Even his choice of advisors sends the message that nothing will change with respect to Middle East policy in an Obama administration. Obama said “I get my Middle East advice from Dennis Ross”. Dennis Ross was an architect of the failed policies of the Bush Sr. and Clinton administrations and is currently a counselor at the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is likely to advocate for the same old policies.

Arabs are probably right when they say “nothing will change”. As Palestinian leader Mustafa Barghouti commented, “Senator Obama seems to be in favor of change everywhere except Israel/Palestine”.