As the Syrian civil war drags on into its third year, it appears that the players, internal and external, in this long running tragedy may be starting to exhibit some common sense. With over 130,000 people killed to date on all sides, millions of people displaced internally and externally and the conflict gradually spreading into neighboring countries, leaders of the involved parties seem to be moving toward taking steps to resolve the crisis.
From the beginning of the conflict in March 2011, U.S. policies have been guided by geopolitical considerations involving Iran and Hezbollah rather than humanitarian concerns. Since Iran relies on Hezbollah to act as an asymmetric deterrent force against Israel and Hezbollah relies on Iran for financial and military support, if the conduit through Syria were cut off by the fall of Assad, both parties would be weaker. Israel, therefore, would be less deterred from attacking Hezbollah and Iran. Early on many U.S. politicians, led by Senator John McCain, advocated for the U.S intervention in support of the rebels. The Friends of Syria made up of 114 nations was formed by the U.S. and its allies and met numerous times in 2012-13 for the purpose of organizing military and other aid to the rebel organizations. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States sent millions of dollars to jihadist rebel groups. President Obama confidently stated that “Assad must step aside” (See here) and told Iraqi President Maliki that “Assad will fall in two months”. (See here)
As the situation on the ground in Syria began to deteriorate in 2013, the external actors began to have second thoughts. The al Qaeda linked Islamist rebel groups usurped the more secular Syrian National Council and became the dominant rebel force. Western powers became concerned that that their citizens fighting with radical Islamist groups would return home and bring the war to the home front. (According to intelligence sources, there are over 50 U.S. citizens currently fighting with jihadists in Syria) The pro-Assad forces have regained territory from the rebels and Iran, Russia and Hezbollah have been steadfast in their support for the Assad regime. The first Friends of Syria conference attracted 114 nations; the last conference attracted 14. The outside actors, with no good outcome in sight have begun to search for a plan B.
While some of the suggestions for a plan B, such as reaching out to the al Qaeda linked al Nusra Front, are absurd, (See here) others being implemented and considered make sense. The U.S. and Russia organized a Geneva II conference which included all sides of the conflict. While the U.S., unable to get over its animosity toward Iran, refused to allow Iran to attend, Secretary John Kerry reached out to Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif at the Munch Security Conference. Unsurprisingly Zarif rebuffed his advance. Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri has disowned the jihadist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), seeing them as too radical. (Now that’s a statement.) (See here) In what is perhaps the most important development, Saudi Arabia, under pressure from the U.S., has announced that it is abandoning its fighters in Syria and Iraq. (See here) Without Saudi support, it will be very difficult to sustain the jihadist armies.
Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul has proposed cooperation between Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia on the Syria issue. Since these three are the main regional supporters of the protagonists, if the three can reach an agreement, a lot of pressure can be brought to bear to end the conflict.
No comments:
Post a Comment