The U.S. campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran has a long history dating back to the founding of the Islamic Republic when the Carter administration imposed unilateral sanctions following the hostage crisis in 1979. Over time the sanctions regime has expanded as the U.S.has attempted to deal with what it saw as Iranian challenges to U.S. interests in the region. The U.S. overthrow of the regime of Sadaam Hussein in Iraq enhanced the Iranian position and in response President George W. Bush, in 2007, initiated a program of covert military action against the Islamic Republic.
President Obama, after campaigning on a policy of dialogue, has enhanced the sanctions regime and lobbied and coerced other countries to enhance their sanctions. The practical effect of the sanctions has been modest. The World Bank estimates that the Iranian economy grew at a rate of 3% in 2010. This is not to say that the Iranian economy doesn’t have its problems. Years of inconsistent and incompetent management by the theocratic regime have resulted in sub-par economic performance. Sanctions have negatively impacted privately owned enterprises leaving more of the economy in the hands of government enterprises.
Dissatisfaction with economic performance has led to political conflict within the regime. The Iranian system of government is similar to the U.S. system with separation of powers and checks and balances. As in the U.S., this leads to political power struggles and gridlock. There is one thing that could unite the squabbling leadership and that is the rise of an existential outside threat. This appears to be on the horizon.
President Obama has not only enhanced sanctions, but has escalated the covert military campaign. Over the last year, several Iranian nuclear and electronic warfare scientists have been assassinated. The Stuxnet virus has been unleashed against Iranian nuclear facilities. Deadly explosions have occurred at military and other facilities near the major cities of Tehran and Isfahan. Support for ethnic terrorist groups such as MEK, PJAK and Jundallah has continued. Some analysts claim that there have been attempts to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. (See here).
In reaction, Iran appears to have escalated its own responses. In past months, Iran, in conjunction with Hezbollah, has unraveled a CIA spy ring in Lebanon and Iran, arresting over thirty operatives. In October, U.S. authorities accused Iran of orchestrating a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in a popular Washington, DC restaurant. If true, this represents a major escalation on the part of the Iranian regime and a major shift in their tolerance for risk. Two weeks ago Iran displayed an American drone aircraft, claiming that they had hacked into its GPS guidance system and guided it to an intact landing. (An interesting account of how they did it is here.) Iranian officials have also claimed that they will soon display other U.S. and Israeli drones that they have shot down or hijacked.
This week, Iran announced that they will soon conduct a “military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz” through which 17% of the world’s oil flows. This announcement alone caused oil prices to jump $3 a barrel. As we continue down this path of confrontation with no vehicle to prevent or defuse miscalculation, the danger of unintended conflict increases.
(Photo from Iran Revolutionary Guard website)
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