As British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy take a victory lap in Libya, it may be premature to declare victory. The number of nations that that have formally recognized the Transitional National Council (TNC) as the legitimate government of Libya grows every day. Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the chairman of the TNC presents a moderate face to the world which plays well in the western media. Behind the scenes of moderation and unity there are many unresolved issues that will be difficult for even the best intentioned leaders to address.
In contrast with Tunisia and Egypt where the revolutions were largely peaceful and where institutions such as political parties, NGO’s, labor unions, etc. were in place, Libya’s revolution was protracted and violent and civil society institutions had been destroyed by Qaddafi and his cronies. There are, therefore, few building blocks upon which to construct a new government structure.
We are already seeing all the societal divisions, which had been suppressed under Qaddafi, reappear even within the TNC. The most visible division is between the Islamists and the secularists. Under Qaddafi the secular elites have been the most prominent both within Libya and in the exile community. However, during the revolution, the Islamists have commanded the bulk of the fighters and the weapons. The Islamist forces are the most experienced fighters who fought in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq and the Balkans. They, therefore, have assumed leadership positions. Abdul Jalil of the TNC has attempted to bridge these divides by calling for a moderate Islamic regime with a legal system based on Sharia. Within the TNC there is also rivalry between the Benghazi and Tripoli factions.
The TNC, however, is not completely in charge. Qaddafi is gone, but where is unclear. Many of his supporters have fled across the southern deserts to Niger and Chad. Will they now become the insurgents? Most of the focus has been on the populous coastal region. The huge sparsely populated desert regions of the south have long been havens for bandits and militias. It will now be an ideal place from which an insurgency of Qaddafi loyalists can operate.
Tribal factions are also competing for power and influence. Many cities were a captured from Qaddafi’s forces by local tribal militias with no allegiance to the TNC. These armed groups will need to be integrated into the new government structure.
Many of Qaddafi’s weapons stockpiles have disappeared. These included not only light weapons and machine guns, but also surface to air missiles. With al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) right across the porous border with Algeria, this raises the threat of attacks on passenger planes.
President Obama was wise to allow the British and French to be the face of the NATO operations and to avoid a premature “mission accomplished moment”. Obama said at the onset of hostilities, “Libya is not Iraq.” It does, however, look a lot like Afghanistan. It ain’t over til it’s over.
(Photo by John Moore/AP)
No comments:
Post a Comment