The Libya Mess

As the military intervention in Libya by the “coalition of the willing” led by Britain, France and the US moves towards its second week, all of the divisive issues inherent in such an adventure are starting to appear. The support (however tepid) from the Arab League and the UN Security Council, which was garnered through diplomatic groundwork by the US and its western allies, is starting to splinter. This was eminently predictable as no amount of war planning survives the first contact with the enemy.
The Obama administration was clearly reluctant to resort to military intervention in support of the rebel factions allied against Muammar Qaddafi and his nasty regime. They were wrestling with legitimate and difficult questions about the availability of resources, the reaction of the Arab and Islamic world to another western attack on an Arab/Muslim country, the effectiveness of a “no fly zone” and the possibility that even a successful military campaign would result in a positive political outcome. In Washington the political pressure to “do something” (In this case fanned by the same neo-conservative hawks who got us into the Iraq mess.) is intense. Faced with this growing pressure Obama decided to move forward with the military option.
As the initial “shock and awe” campaign rapidly devolves into a stalemate, these questions, so far unanswered, still remain. The US is attempting to resolve the resource problem by rapidly turning the lead responsibility over to Britain and France. They, however, have grown used to the US bailing them out and are quickly getting cold feet. As civilian casualties (real and manufactured) are mounting, the Arab and Muslim support is fading.
The “no fly zone” appears to have hampered Qaddafi’s military capability and reenergized the rebels allowing them to make up some lost ground. There is no sign, however, that they will be able to defeat Qaddafi’s forces and drive him from power if he is determined to remain. Absent the coalition committing substantial ground forces to the conflict, it appears that we are in for a long ugly mess.
One possibility for resolving this is to persuade Qaddafi that he has stolen enough money from the Libyan people and can go off to a comfortable retirement. He could even take his female bodyguards, his five star Bedouin tent and his personnel masseuse with him. Even this outcome is problematic as Qaddafi has destroyed all Libyan civil society and will leave behind no institutions capable of filling the power vacuum. As a result, all of the tribal, sectarian and ethnic rivalries will come to the surface.
As the Obama administration considered their policy options they forgot, or chose to ignore, the fact that these interventions are a lot easier to get into than they are to get out of.

Photo by Al Jazeera English

Technorati Tags: Libya,Middle East