An all to familiar path

It has been two years since I have been in Iran, but I still recall a moving meeting with a young Iranian woman in Persepolis, the ancient capital of the Persian Empire in the time of Cyrus and Xerxes. Her tears accented her words and exposed her patriotism. “Our country used to be so strong and now we are nothing.” I often wonder how she feels today as we watch the US and its allies walk down the same path to war as we traveled in Iraq.

Once again we are seeing accusations followed by escalating rhetoric and increasing confrontation. The Obama administration began its Iran “engagement” with a brief meeting with Iranian officials which resulted in a proposal for an exchange of nuclear material. When Iran rejected some of the terms, the engagement was over. In recent weeks Secretary of State Clinton has been in the Middle East to rally support for “crippling sanctions” on Iran and for Saudi Arabian oil supply increases in event that supplies are disrupted by a regional conflict.

Movement down this path is not surprising since a number of Obama advisors, particularly Dennis Ross, have advocated these steps for some time. Ross outlined his recommendations in a policy paper issued by the Bipartisan Policy Center in October 2008. (The whole report is here) Among the findings of the study group were:

• Iran is the “most significant strategic threat to the United States”.
• Iran could be “nuclear weapons capable within four weeks”.
• Any US-Iranian talks should be limited to a “predetermined period of time”.
• Should diplomatic engagement not achieve its objectives the “…President must turn to more intensive sanctions”.
• Sanctions would be “difficult to enforce fully without a blockade”.
• “The Islamic Republic would most certainly claim such blockades were acts of war and would likely respond…” (Blockades are acts of war under International Law)
• These actions would “significantly impact the supply and price of oil”
• “Any military action would run the risk of significant US and allied losses, triggering wide scale Hezbollah and Hamas rocket attacks on Israel and producing unrest in a number of Persian Gulf states”.
• “We believe that a military strike is a feasible option”.

This report was endorsed by Independent Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman and Republican John Kyl. There is little evidence of bipartisanship in Washington these days. About the only thing that Republicans and Democrats seem to be able to agree on is war.