The Lebanese elections are not over

When I was in Lebanon last fall and met with numerous Lebanese political leaders and American diplomats, the consensus was that the Hezbollah led March 8 coalition would win a narrow victory in the parliamentary elections and would be asked to form the next government. US officials were doing everything possible to prevent this outcome; funneling copious amounts of aid through the ruling western oriented March 14 coalition. They were joined in this endeavor by Egypt and Saudi Arabia on behalf of March 14 and by Iran and Syria on behalf of the March 8 coalition.

So much money has been expended by all sides in vote buying, vote renting, air tickets so ex-pats could vote, etc. that the Lebanese economy has continued to move along at a 7% growth rate despite the global recession. After several months of campaigning and mudslinging, the Lebanese people finally got to choose and returned control to the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of assassinated former prime minister Rifik Harari. The Obama administration must have breathed a sigh of relief.

Western media have portrayed the result as a defeat for Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. In reality it was a defeat for Hezbollah’s ally, Christian leader Michel Aoun and his PFM party. Hezbollah only fielded 11 candidates and was counting on Amal, a Shiia party, and PFM to give them a working majority. Although the March 8 coalition received 100,000 more popular votes than March 14, the arcane Lebanese system which allocates 50% of the seats to the Christians even though they are only 1/3 of the population resulted in March 14 winning a majority.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accepted the results “in a sporting spirit” and called for cooperation among the parties. This will be tested over the next few weeks as March 14 attempts to form a government. Much depends on whether Hariri or current Prime Minister Faoud Siniora heads the government. When the current unity government was negotiated in Qatar last fall, Hezbollah was given 1/3 of the cabinet seats which gives them veto power on major decisions. Despite the fact that nothing much has changed, Siniora, under US pressure, has said the March 14 “won” the election and should govern by itself. This is a non-starter for Hezbollah, who believes in consensus government and could precipitate a governmental crisis. (Hezbollah’s Foreign Minister discusses this here.)


Saad Hariri, on the other hand, has a good relationship with Nasrallah and there could be enough trust to allow Hezbollah to forgo its blocking third. The risks to the Lebanese political system are not over.