With friends like this who needs enemies

With the destruction of the border fence between Gaza and Egypt in Rafah and subsequent free flow of traffic back and forth across the border, Hamas has again succeeded in throwing a monkey wrench into the US and Israeli plans to impose their will in this part of the world. Ever since their founding in the 1980’s with the assistance of the US and Israel as a counterbalance to the PLO, Hamas has been a problem for the US and Israel and some of their allies in the region. As my friend Palestinian Archbishop Elias Chacour once said to me, “Once the baby is born and grows up, it is hard to control it”. Because Hamas is an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition political organization in Egypt, the authoritarian Egyptian regime is leery of anything that might increase their strength. Jordan is concerned that any success by Hamas with its Islamist agenda will empower the Islamists within Jordan. For Fatah and the PLO, Hamas is their biggest political rival. Hamas now controls Gaza and my sources tell me that Jordanian Intelligence believes that Hamas is actually stronger in the West Bank than Fatah. Ever since Hamas won the general election in 2006, the US, Israel and their western allies have portrayed themselves as friends and supporters of Fatah, primarily with guns and money. Worry on Hamas’ part that this aid would allow Fatah to destroy them militarily led to the Hamas takeover of Gaza. One of the first things that Hamas accomplished in Gaza was to disarm all of the factions and criminal gangs in Gaza and make the security forces the only ones with guns. This was a very popular move with the average citizens. As one Gazan woman said, “We may not have much money, but at least we can go shopping and visit our friends and family without risking getting killed”. Seeing the popularity of this move, Fatah tried to do the same thing in Nablus when Israel turned security there over to them. Israel, however, made it backfire by invading Nablus and arresting many of the people that had just been disarmed. PA President Mahmoud Abbas’ strategy has been to show that he can accomplish more to relieve the suffering of the Palestinian people by engaging and compromising with his friends the US and Israel than Hamas can accomplish by resistance and confrontation. The problem is that Abbas didn’t pick very reliable friends. When Israel completely blockaded Gaza, creating a humanitarian crisis, Abbas, Egypt and Jordan pleaded with the US to do something to help. Nothing happened. Hamas took action by blowing up the border fence. This not only broke the blockade, but created diplomatic chaos in Israel, Egypt and the US. They have been issuing conflicting and contradictory statements by the hour. Hamas has asked that the border be reestablished, but that the border be open and controlled. The US has threatened Egypt with loss of aid if they do so. Israel isn’t sure what to say. Tough decisions. A lot of uncertainty. One thing that is certain is that Hamas will come out of this stronger and Fatah and its “friends” will be weaker.

Seeing the big picture in a land of details

As President Bush winds up his first trip to the Middle East by visiting so called “moderate” Arab countries, the primary purpose of his trip has become more evident. He has escalated his rhetoric about Iran in an attempt to rally support for an aggressive posture against the “most dangerous country”. Although Arab response has been muted, my sources indicate that the US effort is doomed to fail. Although these Arab countries are concerned about the growing influence in the region of Iran and Shia Islam in general, they much more concerned about the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and its effect on the attitude of their ordinary citizens. Their verbal comments about Iran are more intended to get the US more engaged in solving the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and to encourage on-going US arms sales to Arab countries. It appears to have worked. There were some significant changes in the apparent US attitude towards the conflict. As opposed to the Annapolis conference where no one could bring themselves to even mention the key issues and the Arab peace plan, George Bush was more direct in his comments. (For the complete text, click here) In his final remarks he called for:
1. An end to the occupation
2. Building of the Palestinian economy and security apparatus – How this can happen without and end to the occupation and an end to Israeli attacks and incursions is not clear.
3. Homeland for Palestinians like Israel is homeland for the Jews- Code language for no right of return for Palestinian refugees and Israel as a Jewish state. What the role of Israeli Muslims and Christians is in a “Jewish state” is not clear.
4. Ensure that Israel has “secure, recognized and defensible” borders – this would be easier if anybody knew what the borders were.
5. Mutually agreed adjustment to the armistice line of 1949 – Code language for Israel can keep the major settlement blocks in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and the path of the wall will be the border. What will happen to the thousands of non Israeli Palestinians who live on the Israeli side of the wall is not clear.
6. A viable and contiguous Palestinian state- It will take somebody smarter than I to explain how this can happen if Israel keeps the settlement blocks with their associated bypass/settler roads and their control of the water resources.
7. Solution for Jerusalem- too hot to even mention.
In the Palestinian Territories this was met with great skepticism. In Israel it was met with intransigence. Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu told Bush “Jerusalem has belonged to the Jewish people for 3,000 years and the Jewish people will ensure that it will remain undivided under Jewish sovereignty forever”. The Jerusalem Post quoted a senior Israeli official “Israel will continue building in Jerusalem as well as in major settlement blocs in the West Bank even as a construction freeze continues elsewhere in the territories”. Member of the Knesset Benny Elon called for granting Jordanian passports to all Palestinians, dismantling the Palestinian Authority and abandoning any notions of an independent Palestinian state. (How Israel can issue Jordanian passports is unknown.) Skepticism may be the order of the day and we haven’t even mentioned Hamas , Gaza or Hebron. How anything can happen without engaging Hamas, who represents over 50% of the Palestinians, I have no idea. What to do about the religious settlers in Hebron is also a big problem with no obvious solution. Spokesperson for the Hebron Jewish settlement, David Wilder, told me that if the Hebron settlers were evacuated “I wouldn’t say that an Israeli civil war was probable, but it is certainly possible”. Ignore a problem and maybe it will go away. GWB always said he was a “big picture guy”.

Support for the axis of evil

Many ordinary Iranians that I talked to during my recent visit to Iran expressed the point of view that all of the US saber rattling and “axis of evil” and “regime change” rhetoric was actually helping to keep the unpopular hard line regime in power. Iranians are very proud of their country with its long history and ancient culture and are very patriotic. Anytime that their country has been threatened they have rallied around their government no matter how unpopular. A good example of this attitude happened in 1980 when Saddaam Hussein’s Iraq, with the support of the US and other western countries, invaded Iran. In 1980, shortly after the Iranian revolution and the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it was not clear which political faction was going to come out on top. The Islamists associated with revolutionary hero Ayatollah Khomeini clearly had the upper hand as they were the best organized, but a number of other factions were jockeying for position. The MEK/MKO, with its odd Marxist/Islamist ideology, the Communists, secularists and monarchists were all players. When Saddaam thought that he could take advantage of this factionalism and take over the Iranian oil fields, Iranians of all stripes rallied to the Islamist government and drove out the invader, albeit at the cost of over a million lives on both sides. This phenomenon has been evident in Iran in the past few years. As the US/Israel have threatened economic and military action against Iran the reformist and moderate hard line groups have been reluctant to speak out against the very hard line regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders have been unwilling to appear unpatriotic and have kept a low profile. The situation appears to have changed somewhat in the past few weeks since the release of the National Intelligence Estimate which downgraded the threat of the Iranian nuclear enrichment program. Most people in the Middle East, whether Arab or Persian, breathed a big sigh of relief and concluded that the US/Israel would not be able to sustain a consensus for attack on Iran. The aggressive rhetoric has subsided somewhat and there are even talks about having talks. This has given the opposition factions space to escalate their criticism of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s performance both in foreign affairs and economics. (For an example, click here) Much of this criticism could not have happened without the tacit approval of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamanei. This political space is important since, with parliamentary elections imminent, a start could be made toward the installation of a more moderate regime through the democratic process. (This is my definition of “regime change”) President Ahmadinejad must be saying to himself “Where is George Bush when I need him”? Never fear George is here! The announced primary purpose of his Middle East trip is to insure that everyone in the region understands the “grave threat” of Iran and to rally the “moderate” Arab states in opposition to Iran. The recent altercation between US warships and Iranian patrol boats in the Straits of Hormuz has been another opportunity for “over the top” rhetoric. This altercation has turned into a battle of videos similar to the battle of GPS’s between Iran and the British over the kidnapping, capture, detention or whatever of 15 British sailors and marines last spring. I have looked at both the US and Iranian videos and find the Iranian position that this is a normal course of events in this crowded narrow waterway to be more believable. (You can see the Iranian video here and the US video here and form your own opinion.) It did not appear to rise to the level of a “provocative act” and justify the threat of “serious consequences”. However, with hard liners in charge in both countries, it appears that the two leaders are kindred spirits and need each other’s support to maintain their positions of power.

Are you going to talk or fish?

One of my favorite fishing stories concerns an old small town fisherman who invites a young newcomer to go fishing with him. The next day two men head out onto the lake in their boat. The young man begins to assemble his rod and attach his bait. The older man watches him for awhile and then reaches into his tackle bag, pulls out a stick of dynamite, lights the fuse and throws it over the side of the boat. There ensues a large explosion and shortly many stunned and dead fish float to the surface which the old man begins to collect. The younger man is shocked and proceeds to berate his fishing partner. “You can’t do that; it is immoral and illegal.” The old man listens to the tirade for a few moments and then reaches into the bag, pulls out another stick of dynamite, hands to the young man and says “Are you gonna talk or fish”? It seems to me that this story has some relevance to current and upcoming events in Israel/Palestine. The international community including the US and George Bush have been strongly criticizing Israel for their continued expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem since the Annapolis conference and for their failure to remove so called “illegal” settlements on the West Bank. This has happened before when the in 1997 the Clinton administration tried to prevent construction of settler housing in Har Homa/Abu Ghniem in occupied Jerusalem. After much discussion and threats regarding these settlements, Israel finally called the US’s bluff and the Clinton administration backed down and did nothing. It is clear that nothing will happen to forestall the continued settlement construction without strong US action. Talk won’t get it done. It is likely that, when George Bush visits Israel in the near future, Ehud Olmert will hand him a stick of dynamite and ask “Are you gonna talk or fish”?

Photo Op II: The sequel

This week major developed countries met in Paris for a “donor’s conference” / “photo op” designed to obtain financial support for the Fatah led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. (We will let those in Gaza starve) The PA had requested $5.6b of aid and the participants pledged $7.4b over 3 years. Although it is not clear how much of this will actually be forthcoming and how much is just a restatement of previous pledges, it is still a significant amount of money. Tony Blair declared, “This is not a donor’s conference. This is a state building conference”. Even if this money actually appeared, it is not clear to me that it would have much impact on building a viable Palestinian state. PA President Mahmoud Abbas and his Prime Minister Salaam Fayad have frankly stated that most of the money will go towards closing the yawning PA budget deficit and not toward economic development projects. The PA runs this huge deficit not only because of mismanagement and corruption, but also because the West Bank economy is almost non existent. With no economy, tax revenues are limited and unemployment approaches 50%. Therefore, the PA becomes the employer of last resort. Unless conditions on the ground change dramatically, no amount of international funding will create a viable economy and Palestinian state. Early in his first term George Bush declared his support for a viable Palestinian state, living alongside Israel in peace and security. When a friend of mine heard this, he took George Bush at his word. (Probably not the smartest thing that he has ever done.) He decided that if this is really going to happen, we had better figure out what it will take to create a viable economy in the West Bank and Gaza and he commissioned a Rand Corporation study to accomplish this. After several years of work Rand completed the study and created their report. They tried to incorporate the strengths of the Palestinian people, education, healthcare, entrepreneurial spirit, etc., into a plan that could be implemented with international financial support. One of the primary conclusions of the study was that there must be a modern transportation and communications system linking the major population centers of Nablus, Ramallah, Bethlehem, Hebron and Gaza. The report said nothing about settlements, bypass roads, and checkpoints. I said to my friend, “Didn’t they assume away the problem?” His answer was that Rand, not a minor player in government studies business, was afraid to raise the issues. They were concerned that, given the political climate in the US, if the report talked about eliminating settlements, bypass roads and checkpoints, it would be a non starter with the US government. It turned out to be a non starter anyway as the State Department said that they had no interest in even looking at it. As the issue of freezing settlement construction surfaces after the Annapolis Conference, it is clear that Israel intends to retain East Jerusalem and all the major settlement blocks and to continue construction apace. We have been reduced to arguing about what the meaning of “freeze” is. (Sort of like what is the meaning of “is”?) (For this story, click here and here.) Unless the US exerts significant pressure to change the facts on the ground we will be back in Paris (or some other fancy resort) again in three years trying to deal with a Palestinian economy on life support.

Testing, testing, testing

To no one’s surprise, the agreement to begin a new round of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians with the US as the final judge of who is living up to their obligations is being tested right away. This is probably a good thing as we can avoid wasting a lot of time, effort and money if nothing can come of the talks. The Israeli government is the first to be tested. Immediately after the Annapolis conference a group of right wing Israelis held a demonstration on a hilltop in the E-1 area. The E-1 area is a relatively undeveloped area between the major settlement blocks on the West Bank, such as Maale Adummim and Gilo, and the city of Jerusalem. The Israeli government has long planned to develop the area and has confiscated some Palestinian land and built some structures. Last spring as we were returning to Jerusalem from Maale Adummim, our guide pointed out a building on a hilltop. She said that this was a police station that had recently been built by the Israeli government. It had not yet been occupied, but standard Israeli procedure was to build the police station first and then some time later, after criticism had died down, to build the settlement. Development of E-1 is important to those Israelis who see all of Israel/Palestine as land given to the Jews by God. Developing E-1 would effectively split the West Bank in two and preclude a viable Palestinian state. The purpose of the demonstration by Israeli right wing activists was to put a shot across the bow of the Israeli government to warn them not to even think about stopping development of E-1. (For this story, click here) The US government commitment to a successful “peace process” is also being tested right away. As the world leaders were meeting in Annapolis, the Israeli government announced a tender for bids to build 300 apartments for Jews in the Har Homa/Abu Ghneim area of East Jerusalem, the Arab area of Jerusalem wanted by the PA as the capital of a future Palestinian state. (The Parliament building has already been built.) The issuing of the tender was condemned by the international community, including the US. The Israeli response has been that this is not a violation of the agreed settlement freeze as Israel has annexed East Jerusalem and therefore this is not settlement activity. The annexation is not recognized by the international community including, of all people, the US. This is not the first time we have been down this road in Har Homa/Abu Ghneim. In 1997 the Israeli government commenced apartment construction in this area. The Clinton administration strongly objected and pressured the Israeli government to cease the activity. Evidently Israel’s supporters in the US explained to the administration that this position was hazardous to their political health. The US backed off and when a UN Security Council resolution was introduced condemning the construction the US vetoed it. All this took place when Ehud Olmert was mayor of Jerusalem. I visited this area in May and saw the resulting development. Our guide explained that many of the apartments have been sold to American Jews from NY and NJ as second homes. I doubt if the buyers were told that their neighbors would be hostile Palestinian Arabs. (For this story, click here ) Will anyone take steps to respond to these tests in a manner that will prevent a breakdown of the “peace process” before it even starts? I doubt it. But there is always hope. Even the Arbiter in Chief Condoleezza Rice is only hoping for the best. (For Condi’s hopes click here.)

Contemplating from Gaza

For those are interested in what is happening in Gaza under Hamas control and Israeli blockade, I recommend the blog site Contemplating from Gaza. I have posted a link in the link section to the left. Heba is a wife and mother in Gaza who posts her feelings and impressions periodically.

Paranoia: A good thing?

The news this week has been dominated by reaction to the release of the National Intelligence Estimate that declared that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program four years ago and would not be able obtain a nuclear weapon, even if it wanted one, until the 2013-2015 timeframe. The reaction from the US government was that Iran still remains a “grave threat” and is presents a danger of starting WW III. Many commentators have expressed the view that this reaction is a good example of “I have my policy, don’t confuse me with the facts” or “irrational paranoia”. Perhaps, however, in this case, paranoia is a good thing. I participated in a conference call today with Professor Shipley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor of Peace and Development at the University of Maryland on the subject of “Annapolis and Beyond”. During the discussion it was clear that it is crucial that the US weigh in as a player during the “peace process” envisioned at Annapolis. The US role is crucial for several reasons. First and foremost, there is an enormous “power asymmetry” between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the negotiations. The US must balance this asymmetry if there is to be a just settlement that can be accepted by the Palestinian people. Second, Prime Minister Abbas has put all his eggs in the US basket and the US has put all its eggs in his basket. If the US fails, Abbas is finished and Hamas is waiting on the sidelines to say “I told you so”. Third, Israel is responsive only to the US. Without US pressure Israel has no incentive to negotiate a settlement. The power imbalance makes it very likely that they can weather any violent response by Hamas and other militants. Finally, the US is the sole judge of which party is living up to their obligations under the so called “Roadmap” This role will be tested very quickly as Israel has announced intentions to build 300 apartments in occupied East Jerusalem and has introduced legislation to fund the construction of West Bank “outposts” in violation of the “Roadmap’s” call to freeze settlements. (For this story, click here.) During the conference call, the question was asked “Why did the Arab states attend the Annapolis Conference?” The conventional wisdom has been that they are afraid of Iran and the “Shia crescent” and, therefore, want to support the US in its efforts to contain Iran. Professor Shipley’s opinion, based on conversations with Arab leaders and multiple polls of Arab citizens, is different. Although Arab leaders are concerned about Iran’s growing influence, they are not afraid of Iran and do not feel that there is any danger that Iran will attack them, absent a US/Israeli attack on Iran. The number one priority for the leaders and their people is the resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. They do, however, realize that the American people and their political leaders “just don’t care” if this conflict gets settled. When King Abdullah of Jordan came to the US a few months ago and made a speech about the importance of this issue and the importance of the US in resolving it, he was politely received and then ignored by both politicians and the media. This reinforced the Arab leaders’ view that the only way to get the US’s attention is to create linkage between Arab support for containing Iran and a solution to the Israeli/Palestinian issue. Only this will give the US the will to truly engage in helping to solve this intractable problem. Perhaps paranoia is a good thing.

The mother of all photo ops

In the weeks and months leading up to Tuesday’s conference in Annapolis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, all parties, Israelis, Palestinians and the US, went to great efforts to lower expectations. The discussions were initially talked about as a conference, then a meeting and finally a gathering. The original goal was to arrive at a strategic vision of what a solution should look like. The goal then changed to a statement of principals that would be embodied in the final agreement and finally an agreement to meet again with the hope of finding a solution. This effort to lower expectations certainly succeeded as polls and interviews of Israelis, Palestinians and other Arabs, leaders and people on the street, indicate. (Click here, here and here) Eighty-five per cent of Americans surveyed by the Wall Street Journal thought nothing would come of it. The State Dept. declared that even organizing the meeting was a success. The meeting was praised as the most serious peace effort in 7 years. A pretty low standard since there have been no peace efforts in the past 7 years. The final agreement (A complete text is here) was no more than another agreement on process, a strategy that has failed many times before. As that great philosopher Yogi Berra once said “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there”. The parties could not even bring themselves to mention the core issues of the conflict: borders, Jerusalem and the status of refugees. The best that they could do was mention that core issues exist. The Israelis could not allow the dreaded “J” word (Jerusalem) to be mentioned as the conservative members of Ehud Olmert’s governing coalition had threatened to bring down the coalition and cause new elections if Jerusalem was even mentioned. The Arab peace plan and relevant UN resolutions also were not mentioned because UN Resolution 194 calls for the repatriation or compensation of refugees. This particular resolution is a big problem for the Israelis as they agreed to it as a condition of their entry into the UN. What happens from here depends greatly on what role the US chooses to play. The US has been declared the sole judge of progress towards a settlement. In the past the US has not exactly been a model of the balanced and unbiased mediator. A lot depends on which faction in the US government controls US policy. On one side we have National Security Advisor Steve Hadley telling a group of American Orthodox Jews and Christian Zionists that “Jerusalem is not on the table” and telling a group of Johns Hopkins University students “there is no place for Syria in the peace process”. On the other side we have Condi Rice shaking hands with the Syrian representative at the end of the conference and thanking him for his attendance. She was also praised by Palestinian Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat for her “knowledge of all the little issues”. Unless George Bush, the self proclaimed “decider in chief” reverses his position of supporting all the Israeli negotiating positions, it is likely that the Hadley/Cheney faction will carry the day and the negotiations will fail. The one point that all sides agreed on was that time is running out. They agreed to try to reach an agreement by the end of 2008. I would argue that the time frame is even shorter. Unless substantial progress is made by Israel’s 60th anniversary celebration on May 8, 2008 all the Palestinian frustration and loss of hope may well boil over into violence. As Saeb Erekat has said: “If we fail, God help us.”

Experience or Stupidity?

As I have watched the US government try to balance its conflicting strategic interests and policies in the Middle East in the run up to the Annapolis conference or meeting (I noted today that it is now being downgraded to a “gathering”.), I was reminded of the efforts of the Eisenhower administration to do the same thing in the 1950’s. Eisenhower publicly promulgated a policy that the US would protect any Middle East country that was threatened by a country “dominated by international communism”. Middle Eastern leaders and scholars were puzzled at the time about exactly what that meant since neither the Soviet Union, nor China nor any eastern European state were threats to invade the Middle East. It wasn’t until the records of the Eisenhower administration were opened to the public that scholars realized that the policy had nothing to do with international communism but was about countering and containing the influence of the Arab nationalism of Egypt under Gamal Abdul Nassar. The vehicle to accomplish this was to provide economic and military aid to countries (mostly undemocratic and conservative like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq) that would ally themselves with the US in the region. Most countries who agreed to this bargain were unwilling to do so publicly as it flew in the face of the views of the average man on the street. Even though the governments were undemocratic, they had to pay attention to public opinion or risk being overthrown. The result of this policy was that anytime a sitting government was overthrown, whether peacefully as in Lebanon or violently as in Iraq and the people’s voice was heard, the resulting government quickly allied itself with Nassar and Egypt/Syria. The Eisenhower Doctrine was short lived as the US administration soon realized that Nassar was too politically powerful and they attempted to implement a policy of engagement with Nassar. (This didn’t work either, but that’s another story) If one substitutes Iran for Egypt and “Islamofascism” (whatever that is) or Al Quada for international communism one can see the same scenario playing out again. Egyptian President Gamal Nassar is quoted as saying to an American friend, “The genius of you Americans is that you never made clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them that we are missing”. In today’s American political battles there is a lot of argument over who has the most experience. The dictionary definition of experience is “knowledge acquired by living through an event”. Acquiring knowledge requires learning something. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is not experience it is stupidity.

Worrying about peace

Several events have occurred during the past week that indicate that progress might be made at the “meeting” convened by the US to discuss how to achieve a negotiated settlement of the conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Although the “meeting”, tentatively scheduled for November 26th , still has no firm date, no agenda and no guest list, Secretary of State Rice has been meeting with everybody in sight to encourage progress towards a “vision of a political horizon”. Since the political horizon still seems as far away as ever, the efforts toward progress have returned to working on process as envisioned by the Oslo Accords and the Quartet Road Map. Israel has turned much of the responsibility for security in Nablus over to the Palestinian Authority. The PA has responded by disarming a number of the gangs and factions who have been responsible for much of the violence in this isolated city. This disarmament has included the factions affiliated with the Prime Minister Abbas’s Fatah party. The improvement in security has been praised by Nablus residents as well as the US. Indeed the US has criticized Israel for interfering in the efforts of the PA. (For this story, click here.) Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has floated a couple of trial balloons indicating that Israel might be willing to relinquish a portion of East Jerusalem to the PA as part of a peace settlement. Exactly what this means remains to be seen. The US, having indicated that the PA is beginning to meet its security obligations under the Quartet Road Map, has started to pressure Israel to meet its obligations under the road map to halt the building of new settlements and to freeze current settlements in occupied territories. Precisely what this means is not clear. How does it affect outpost settlements that are illegal under Israeli law? How does it affect major settlement blocs such as Maale Adumin and Gilo that are illegal under international law but recognized by George Bush and Israel? All of this activity has some people worried and they are trying to throw boulders on the road to peace. Worried right wing Likud party members in the Israeli Knesset have introduced legislation to require an unachievable super majority before Jerusalem could be divided. (For this story, click here.) Prime Minister Olmert’s weak government is worried that the US will define the settlement issue in such a way that Israel will be unwilling or unable to meet its obligations and will be accused of being an obstacle to peace. PM Olmert is dispatching a delegation to Washington to address this problem. (For this story, click here.) All this ignores the fact that no one is dealing with the Israeli settlers and Hamas, both of whom have the ability to derail the whole process with violence. Everybody seems to think that if you ignore a problem it will go away. We have been down this peace process road before and have always ended up in the ditch. In my view until all the parties, including the US, can agree on a vision, however sketchy, of what a peace settlement might look like, we a doomed to end up in the same ditch.

Is something positive happening?

There seem to be some events happening in the Middle East that give even a pessimist like me some hope that sanity might prevail in the midst of all the past irrationality. The US has said that it will release nine of the Iranian terrorists, spies, diplomats or whatever that we captured, kidnapped, detained or whatever in Iraq over recent months. The holding of these Iranians has been a bone of contention between the US and Iran since it began several months ago. The Iraqi government has supported the Iranian position. In addition, US military spokespersons have indicated that there is evidence of Iran reducing its support for Shia militias within Iraq. Perhaps both countries are beginning to realize that the aggressive confrontation is counter productive. From both the US and Iranian standpoints the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan with the increasing power of the Taliban is dangerous and undesirable. Pakistan and George Bush’s friend, Pervez Mushareff, are becoming less reliable US allies and Pakistan is increasingly in danger of coming under the sway of radical Islamist groups friendly to Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. To have both countries bordering Afghanistan be adversaries would be disastrous for the US and NATO. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have let his celebrity go to his head and overreached. He may have forgotten that the real power in Iran rests with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei. Trying to understand the opaque and factional politics of Iran is hopeless, but criticism of the forced resignation of respected nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani by the Supreme Leader and the critical letter signed by 183 members of the Majlis or Parliament may indicate that Ahmadinejad’s confrontive style may be wearing thin. The conservative pragmatists, such as Hassani Rafsanjani, may be exerting some influence. Hopefully the US will not ignore any overtures from them as we have in the past. In Israel/Palestine the Palestinian Authority is beginning to disarm fighters on the West Bank as Hamas has done in Gaza. If the PA disarms everybody and not just Hamas supporters, it could significantly reduce the violence. The US has condemned (Condemned might be a little strong, but given the usual non reaction towards Israeli behavior it may be descriptive.) Israel’s continued raids into Nablus (a city where security has been turned over to the PA) and the IDF’s confiscation of PA security force equipment. (For this story, click here) If the PA takes more responsibility for its own security and the US takes a more balanced approach, something might come out of the Annapolis meeting. Call me a Pollyanna, but perhaps something positive might be happening. Then again, perhaps not.

Conflicting conflicts

Ever since the US has had a Middle East policy, basically since WW II, it has had difficulty balancing conflicting aspects of their policies. The strategic US Middle East policies, interests and objectives have at times been in conflict and at times been completely opposed. Some would argue that “strategic” and “US Middle East policy” are not words that should be used in the same sentence. I have maintained that Osama Bin Laden has an advantage in his conflict with the US since he has a strategy and the US is completely focused on tactics. The US has even declared war on a tactic, the so called “war on terror”, but that is another story. After 1945, America’s primary objectives in the region were securing Western access to Middle Eastern oil, preventing the Soviet Union from reaping political or strategic advantage in the area, and ensuring Israel’s security. Pursuing the last of these objectives often complicated the pursuit of the other two. Washington’s close relations with Israel generated anti-American sentiment in the Arab world, providing the Soviet Union with opportunities to increase its political influence in the region. Similarly, during the Yom Kippur War of 1973, President Richard M. Nixon’s decision to airlift military supplies to Israel prompted oil-producing Arab states to impose an embargo on oil shipments to the United States and some European countries, causing major dislocations in the global economy. As the Cold War drew to an end, the imperative of containing the Soviet Union gave way to two new objectives: combating international terrorism and preventing so called "rogue" states—such as Libya, Iran, and Iraq—from challenging U.S. policies in the region. Both of these objectives have acquired fresh urgency following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, but Americans disagree over whether the two goals can, or should, be pursued simultaneously. While President George W. Bush argued that the necessity of disarming Iraq and overthrowing its government as well cannot be separated from the effort to defeat Osama bin Laden’s al-Qa‘ida network, others insist that Bush’s preoccupation with Iraq has diverted precious energy and resources from the war against al-Qa‘ida. As in previous decades, Washington finds no easy formulas for pursuing its diverse objectives in the Middle East. A good example is occurring in the region as we speak. The US has objectives in the region of containing and disrupting Iranian influence, supporting the Kurdish regional government in Iraq as a poster child for positive results from the US invasion and occupation and cultivating good relations with Turkey as a moderate Islamic state, a bridge to the Middle East and a conduit for oil and natural gas flow to the west. In order to help accomplish the first objective, the US has supported and armed the Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) and their affiliate the PJAK in their attacks on Iran. (For this story, click here) This has created the problem that the PKK has used this support and the arms to attack Turkey. (For this story, click here) After numerous deadly cross border raids Turkey has asked the Iraqi central government, the US, and the Kurdish regional government to crack down on PKK bases in Iraq and prevent the attacks across the border. The Iraqi government has no ability to accomplish this as they have limited resources and those that they do have are not allowed to operate in Kurdish areas. The US is unwilling to do anything because they support the PKK attacks on Iran and are reluctant to risk destabilizing the only part of Iraq that shows any signs of progress. The Kurdish regional government has no desire to do anything because their long range objective is an independent greater Kurdistan incorporating the Kurdish areas of Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran. The result of all this is that our erstwhile ally, Turkey, and our erstwhile enemy, Iran, are meeting to discuss how to work together to solve their common problem. (For this story, click here) A fine mess, good luck in resolving it.

The Empire Strikes Out

After the recent story of the cancellation of a talk by Archbishop Desmond Tutu (See the story below) it was good news that Father Dennis Dease, President of Saint Thomas, decided that he had made a mistake and reinstated the invitation. (For the full announcement, click here) The initial cancellation was the result of pressure by Jewish/Israel lobby organizations like the Zionist Organization of America. The large number of emails, letters and phone calls from individuals and organizations like Sabeel and Jewish Voices for Peace persuaded Father Dease that he had made a mistake. He said: “I did not have all the facts and points of view. I do now.” The bad news is that I did not help. Shortly after I posted on this subject, I received a call from a friend who had read it. She said: “This is an outrage. You need to write St. Thomas.” Unfortunately I said to myself “What difference will one email from me make?” I was wrong. Tom Friedman’s latest column talks about the power of one involved individual to make a difference. (For the column, click here) I promise to get involved next time.

Do we really pay these guys?

This week The News Hour on PBS did a piece on Iran’s influence in Iraq. The commentators were Ray Takeyh, an Iranian American who is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and Peter Rodman former Assistant Secretary of Defense and fellow at the Brookings Institute. (For a transcript of the conversation, click here) Mr. Takeyh and Mr. Rodman did not agree about much as to how the US should deal with Iran regarding Iraq. Mr. Takeyh took the position that the situation was very complicated, but with careful and sophisticated diplomacy, some agreement was possible. Mr. Rodman, for the most part, repeated the US government policy that Iran was responsible for the bad things happening in Iraq and a policy of threats and sanctions was appropriate and necessary. Surprisingly, the one thing that they did seem to agree on was that there was a great amount of convergence between the strategic goals of the US and those of Iran with respect to the situation in Iraq. The US government would like to see a federal state as outlined in the Iraqi constitution with a relatively weak central government and relatively strong provincial or regional governments. They would like to see the democratically elected and Shia dominated government of Prime Minister Maliki succeed in stabilizing the country. They also would like to see the US troops come home. (Maybe) These are essentially the strategic goals of Iran. For 60 years the Israelis and the Palestinians have been unable to reach agreement on their broader goals. Because of this failure all the efforts to talk about process have come to nothing. Here we agree on the broader goals and what remains is to agree on is how to accomplish them. It seems to me that this is what we pay our State Dept. diplomats to do. Instead of laying down a list of a priori demands and insisting that the other party accedes, as US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker did in his recent meetings with Iran, our diplomats should be looking for the common ground. If these people did their job as poorly for me in business as they do for me as part of the government, I would fire the whole lot and start over. Maybe the American people should try that.

The Empire Strikes Back

Last week the Jewish/Israel lobby tried but were unsuccessful in preventing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from speaking at Columbia University. They were successful in getting Columbia President Bollinger to rudely attack President Ahmadinejad during his introduction. Since they were unsuccessful in New York, they decided to pick on someone smaller and less powerful than Columbia. This week, they succeeded in preventing Nobel Laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu from speaking at St. Thomas College in Minneapolis. (For this story, click here) The grounds for this boycott of Archbishop Tutu were his alleged anti-Semitic remarks at a conference in Boston. The right wing Zionist Organization of America has not only twisted the words of Bishop Tutu, but also those of Jimmy Carter and Professor Norman Finkelstein to achieve their goal of silencing Israel’s critics. (For the full transcript of the speech, click here) It is disappointing that this episode should take place at St. Thomas College, a Catholic school named for a saint who was honored for being willing to question conventional wisdom even religious dogma. During our recent trip to Israel/Palestine my wife and I commissioned an icon of St. Thomas for our church whose name also honors St. Thomas. Those who have gone with us to Israel and the West Bank usually return questioning the conventional wisdom that they have received from the US media and politicians. They tend agree with the words of Bishop Tutu and Jimmy Carter comparing what is happening in Israel/Palestine with what happened in apartheid South Africa. The nun in Jerusalem who painted the icon added the biblical quote “blessed are those who have not seen and yet believe.” Perhaps this applies to those who have not seen Israel with their own eyes but still campaign for peace and justice in this region.

Will the real America please stand up!

When it was announced that Columbia University had invited President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran to speak when he was in New York City, I was supportive of this effort to engage in dialogue with one of our many adversaries rather than continuing the saber rattling. Even in this fear obsessed post 9/11 country we should not be afraid to hear a point of view that differs from our own. Similar sentiments were expressed by author and progressive radio host Thom Hartmann.

Columbia University Shows True American Values
by Thom Hartmann

Columbia University, by inviting Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to speak, has shown confidence in the wisdom and adultness of their students and our republic.
Ahmadinejad is the president of a major nation in a vital part of the world, and we should have enough self-assurance and belief in our own system of government, and in the intelligence of our college students, that we can let them (and our larger public) evaluate his words, whatever they may be.
To be terrified of his speaking there (or, for that matter, laying a wreath at Ground Zero) is behavior one would have expected from a fragile régime like Khrushchev's USSR or Burma's military junta, not the bold, brave, and fearless USA.
We are the nation whose President Nixon reached out to and met with China's Mao Tse Tsung at the same time Mao was funding and arming the North Vietnamese to kill our soldiers in Vietnam. We're the nation whose President Reagan confronted Soviet President Gorbachev, who at the time had thousands of nuclear warheads armed and pointed at us and was actively funding and arming proxy wars we were fighting in more than a half-dozen nations. We're the nation whose President Roosevelt said, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself."
And let's also remember that the people of Tehran, Iran, produced one of the largest candlelight vigil demonstrations in the Muslim world in support of the USA the day after 9/11, repudiating the act and actors of that event. We still have the ability to make an ally of that nation, and shouldn't blow it by fear and bluster (or bombs). America is better and stronger than the nervous Nellies and chickenhawk war-mongers who currently have control of the Republican Party (and a few Democrats, apparently).
As JFK said: "We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts, foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values; for a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people."
We are not afraid. We are Americans!

I was, however, appalled at the behavior of Columbia University President Lee Bollinger. Not only was he rude to an invited guest and displayed complete ignorance of Iran and its government, but he also played right into the hands of the publicity seeking Iranian president. Common courtesy would dictate that when you invite someone into your home you treat him with respect. His ignorance of Iran is inexcusable as he has one of the foremost experts on modern Iran on his faculty, Gary Sick. A brief conversation with Mr. Sick would have allowed him to ask some very difficult questions in atmosphere of civil dialogue. As an Iranian blogger said: “A taxi driver in Tehran could have asked more difficult questions for President Ahmadinejad to answer.” Most of what President Ahmadinejad said in his speech was geared to his domestic audience and the “Arab street”. By aggressively attacking the Columbia event and organizing demonstrations attended mostly by Jews the American Jewish lobby allowed Ahmadinejad to portray the conflict as one between Iran and the “occupying Zionist regime”. Pictures of demonstrators in yarmulkes were all over the Arab press. This allows Ahmadinejad to portray Iran as a protector of the Palestinian cause against the “occupying Zionist regime” which plays very well on the “Arab street”. (Commentators in Israel have bemoaned the actions of the Jewish lobby. To see an example click here.) How do supposedly intelligent people do these things?

I hope that I am wrong

As those of you that have been reading my ramblings in this space for a while know I have about given up on the viability of a two state solution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. My rational has been that there is no overlap between the positions of the two parties and therefore no room for a negotiated settlement. Today, during a conference call with Ambassador (ret) Phillip Wilcox, President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, I asked him his opinion. He expressed that in his opinion, backed up by polls; there is considerable support within the Israeli and Palestinian polities for a two state solution within the framework outlined by the Geneva Agreements or the Arab Peace Initiative. The problem he said was that the two governments do not reflect the views of the people and most reasonable people have given up on their ability to influence their government. The Israeli government has been captive to the Israeli military and the settler movement for a long time. The Palestinian government is not strong enough to confront the rejectionist parties. The catch 22 is that it is virtually impossible for Palestinian institutions to develop in an environment of Israeli occupation where security is defacto in the hands of the Israeli military. As we move closer to the Middle East Peace Conference (now being downgraded to a meeting) called for by President Bush, Secretary of State Rice is pushing hard for the two parties to agree on a “political horizon” prior to the conference. This is a step forward since, up to now, all of the focus has been on the process rather than on the end game. It is, however, very unlikely that the two parties can, by themselves, come to an agreement in six weeks on something that they have been unable to agree on for 60 years. Ambassador Wilcox feels, and I agree with him, that the only chance for a “political horizon” to come forward is for the President of the United States to articulate a proposed agreement that addresses the issues of borders, settlements, refugees and status of Jerusalem. This will require an enormous amount of political courage on the part of the Bush administration, something that this administration does not seem to have in great supply. There clearly is not unanimity within the administration as to what the “political horizon” should look like. Many strong voices within the administration are advocates for the Israeli right wing position of “no compromise with terrorists”. One potentially promising event occurred within the last week when Israeli Vice Premier Ramon floated a trial balloon proposing that Israel give up their occupation of Arab East Jerusalem as part of a peace deal. (For this story click here.) Ramon is a Labor party member of Olmert’s Kadima led governing coalition and may or may not speak for Olmert. It may, however, indicate that Olmert is beginning to think pragmatically. I am not optimistic that anything positive can come from all this. I hope that I am wrong. The good news is that I have been wrong before.

Does this make sense?

As part of their campaign to justify invading Iraq, the US government maintained that Saddaam Hussein’s government was aiding Al Qaeda and would provide them WMD from their non-existent stockpiles. I believed the assertion that Iraq had WMD; after all it was a “slam dunk”. (Silly me) However, the Al Qaeda claim never made sense to me. Al Qaeda’s ultimate goal is to establish a Sunni Muslim caliphate in the Middle East and more ambitiously in the world. Saddaam Hussein was secular Baathist Socialist. The last thing he would want to see was an Islamic government in the Middle East. Now, in making the case for war in Iran, the US is accusing Iran of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and aiding insurgent groups in Iraq. The Taliban claim also makes no sense to me. The Taliban is a long standing supporter of Al Qaeda and also wants to see a Sunni Islamic caliphate. Iran is a Shia country and considers the Taliban a dangerous adversary. Based on this view, Iran aided US efforts to overthrow the Taliban in Afghanistan. Iran also has poor relations with Pakistan, a supporter of the Taliban, and an ally of the US. (Huh??) As an Iranian government minister said after Pakistan exploded is first nuclear weapon, “That was a Genii that would have been best left in the bottle”. Why would Iran want to support the Taliban efforts to reestablish an enemy state right on its borders? It makes no sense to me. In terms of Iranian activity in Iraq, the Shia groups that Iran has the most influence are the SCIRI and al Dawa. Both of these groups are part of the US supported government of Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki. Muktada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army has more of an Iraqi nationalist agenda and is probably not a strong client of Iran. Although weapons may flow across the long and porous border between Iran and Iraq and the Iranian government has many factions with different agendas, it is hard to imagine that the Iranian government would support insurgents fighting against a government made up of the people with whom it has the best relations. Perhaps one of the lessons learned from the Iraq war debacle is that if it doesn’t make sense, perhaps it isn’t true no matter how many times the US government says it.

Back to School

The Khalil Gibron International School, NYC’s first ever Arabic dual language school, opened quietly this week with arrival of 55 sixth grade students. This quiet opening occurred despite the angry furor surrounding the school. (For an article, click here) The mission of KGIS is:
“to prepare students of diverse backgrounds for success in an increasingly global and interdependent society. Our focus is on holistic student development and rigorous academics. Through our multicultural curriculum and intensive Arabic language instruction, students graduate with the skills they need to become empowered independent thinkers who are able to work with cultures beyond their own. Students graduate with a deep understanding of different cultural perspectives, a love of learning, and a desire for excellence, with integrity preparing them for leadership in today’s constantly changing global world.”
This seemingly desirable objective, to create students who are comfortable in and knowledgeable about a part of the world that is important to understand in the 21st century, has brought a barrage of attacks from Jews, Christians and ad hoc anti Arab groups. Daniel Pipes, columnist for the NY Sun and Jerusalem Post, AIPAC leader and founder of Campus Watch, an organization dedicated to monitoring the portrayal of Israel in educational institutions, led the charge from the Jewish community. (Here, here and here) The Christian attack has been led by the Thomas More Law Center, a conservative legal center started by Thomas Monaghan, the conservative Catholic founder of Domino’s Pizza. They have been joined by the ad hoc “Stop the Madrassa Coalition” (To see who these guys are, click here) The effort has had some success as the Principal designate Dhabah Almontaser has been forced resign for refusing to condemn the use of the word “intifada” (literally “shaking off”) and has been replaced by Danielle Salzberg, a Jewish woman who speaks no Arabic. As I listen to the attacks on Arabs generated by KGIS and the Dubai Ports controversy as well as the general anti immigrant discourse surrounding the immigration reform bill, I wonder what happened to the country of immigrants that took great pride in its ability to deal with and to find strength in diversity.