Light on Iran

In the past two weeks events have occurred that have helped shed some light on the state of politics in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Observers such as myself have felt that events on February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, would demonstrate the breadth and depth of the opposition (green) movement as well as the level of confidence that the regime has in dealing with the opposition and its level of concern about the threatening language and actions of the US, Europe and Israel.

The relatively low key response to the Feb 11 demonstrations and the ability of the security forces to control the demonstrations without “tanks in the street” revealed that the regime does not, at this time, see the opposition as an existential threat and it can now turn its attention to the larger issues that it faces such as a collapsing economy and military threats from US/Israel.

Last week a report was released by WorldPublicOpinion.org (The whole report is here) which analyzed multiple polls conducted by both Iranian and western polling organizations. The poll results indicate that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have legitimately won the election. The reaction of the regime to the election, by manipulating poll results and fiercely resisting all calls for a recount, may have been unnecessary and needlessly inflamed opposition parties. The regime acted as though it had rigged the vote. Recognition that Ahmadinejad actually have won may account for the fact that opposition leaders have turned their attention from the election to civil rights.

There are other interesting outcomes from the polls in addition to the fact that 60% of respondents said that they voted for Ahmadinejad.

1. 83% believe the election was free and fair
2. 81% believe Ahmadinejad is the legitimate President
3. 85% are very or somewhat satisfied with the current Islamic Republic system of government
4. 77% have an unfavorable view of the US government
5. Over 60% believe that there should be unconditional negotiations with the US and restoration of diplomatic ties. (Not currently Iranian government policy)
6. 97% are in favor of Iran’s nuclear program including 38% who favor the development of nuclear weapons.

These results are relatively uniform over regime and opposition supporters.

The Obama administration would be wise to take these facts into consideration as they pursue their Iran policies. Refusing to deal with Ahmadinejad government and expecting that the regime will fall any time soon is wishful thinking. Any expectation that an opposition government will come to power (an extremely unlikely event at best) and accede to western demands is a complete fantasy. As Henry Kissinger once said, “Diplomacy is a game that is played with the pieces that are on the table.” The US needs to forget the saber rattling and seriously engage with the Islamic Republic.

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