An all to familiar path

It has been two years since I have been in Iran, but I still recall a moving meeting with a young Iranian woman in Persepolis, the ancient capital of the Persian Empire in the time of Cyrus and Xerxes. Her tears accented her words and exposed her patriotism. “Our country used to be so strong and now we are nothing.” I often wonder how she feels today as we watch the US and its allies walk down the same path to war as we traveled in Iraq.

Once again we are seeing accusations followed by escalating rhetoric and increasing confrontation. The Obama administration began its Iran “engagement” with a brief meeting with Iranian officials which resulted in a proposal for an exchange of nuclear material. When Iran rejected some of the terms, the engagement was over. In recent weeks Secretary of State Clinton has been in the Middle East to rally support for “crippling sanctions” on Iran and for Saudi Arabian oil supply increases in event that supplies are disrupted by a regional conflict.

Movement down this path is not surprising since a number of Obama advisors, particularly Dennis Ross, have advocated these steps for some time. Ross outlined his recommendations in a policy paper issued by the Bipartisan Policy Center in October 2008. (The whole report is here) Among the findings of the study group were:

• Iran is the “most significant strategic threat to the United States”.
• Iran could be “nuclear weapons capable within four weeks”.
• Any US-Iranian talks should be limited to a “predetermined period of time”.
• Should diplomatic engagement not achieve its objectives the “…President must turn to more intensive sanctions”.
• Sanctions would be “difficult to enforce fully without a blockade”.
• “The Islamic Republic would most certainly claim such blockades were acts of war and would likely respond…” (Blockades are acts of war under International Law)
• These actions would “significantly impact the supply and price of oil”
• “Any military action would run the risk of significant US and allied losses, triggering wide scale Hezbollah and Hamas rocket attacks on Israel and producing unrest in a number of Persian Gulf states”.
• “We believe that a military strike is a feasible option”.

This report was endorsed by Independent Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman and Republican John Kyl. There is little evidence of bipartisanship in Washington these days. About the only thing that Republicans and Democrats seem to be able to agree on is war.

Light on Iran

In the past two weeks events have occurred that have helped shed some light on the state of politics in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Observers such as myself have felt that events on February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, would demonstrate the breadth and depth of the opposition (green) movement as well as the level of confidence that the regime has in dealing with the opposition and its level of concern about the threatening language and actions of the US, Europe and Israel.

The relatively low key response to the Feb 11 demonstrations and the ability of the security forces to control the demonstrations without “tanks in the street” revealed that the regime does not, at this time, see the opposition as an existential threat and it can now turn its attention to the larger issues that it faces such as a collapsing economy and military threats from US/Israel.

Last week a report was released by WorldPublicOpinion.org (The whole report is here) which analyzed multiple polls conducted by both Iranian and western polling organizations. The poll results indicate that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have legitimately won the election. The reaction of the regime to the election, by manipulating poll results and fiercely resisting all calls for a recount, may have been unnecessary and needlessly inflamed opposition parties. The regime acted as though it had rigged the vote. Recognition that Ahmadinejad actually have won may account for the fact that opposition leaders have turned their attention from the election to civil rights.

There are other interesting outcomes from the polls in addition to the fact that 60% of respondents said that they voted for Ahmadinejad.

1. 83% believe the election was free and fair
2. 81% believe Ahmadinejad is the legitimate President
3. 85% are very or somewhat satisfied with the current Islamic Republic system of government
4. 77% have an unfavorable view of the US government
5. Over 60% believe that there should be unconditional negotiations with the US and restoration of diplomatic ties. (Not currently Iranian government policy)
6. 97% are in favor of Iran’s nuclear program including 38% who favor the development of nuclear weapons.

These results are relatively uniform over regime and opposition supporters.

The Obama administration would be wise to take these facts into consideration as they pursue their Iran policies. Refusing to deal with Ahmadinejad government and expecting that the regime will fall any time soon is wishful thinking. Any expectation that an opposition government will come to power (an extremely unlikely event at best) and accede to western demands is a complete fantasy. As Henry Kissinger once said, “Diplomacy is a game that is played with the pieces that are on the table.” The US needs to forget the saber rattling and seriously engage with the Islamic Republic.

Technorati Tags: Iran Election,Iran

Changing Landscape

When I was at a conference on US – Arab relations last fall in Washington, DC, one of the panel members reminded me that when thinking about the Middle East, one should wake up every morning and question everything that you think you know. For several years, when people have asked me whether I thought that the US/Israel would attack Iran, I always answered “No”. My rational was that the Iranian strategy of “asymmetrical deterrence” by arming Hezbollah and Hamas as a deterrent to an Israeli attack had worked pretty well and at a minimum we would have advance warning as Israel would have to attack Lebanon in order to neutralize Hezbollah before attacking Iran.

I woke up this week to news that the US was installing Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE, upgrading the current systems in Israel and Saudi Arabia and deploying BMD equipped warships in the Persian Gulf. If effectively deployed, these systems change the balance of power landscape in the region and free up Israel to attack Iran. While spun by the US as defensive deployment, when combined with Obama’s “axis of evil lite” State of the Union speech (Iran and North Korea face “severe consequences” if they fail to meet western demands) and Hilary Clinton’s threat that China faces “diplomatic isolation” if it fails to support sanctions on Iran (How this would be accomplished is unclear. Perhaps we could refuse to sell them our trillions of dollars of debt.), the deployments must have the Iranian regime rethinking their strategic posture.

The initial Iranian reaction has been muted, calling the US missile shield a “puppet show”. (There may be truth in this conjecture as this week’s test of the upgraded BMD system failed.) On the other hand the Iranian leadership, controlled by hardliners associated with the Revolutionary Guard, must be asking themselves, is war with the US/Israel inevitable and if so how do we respond.

We will get a clue to their thinking on February 11, the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. The opposition (green) movement is planning further demonstrations against the regime and how the regime reacts may tell us whether they think war is inevitable. Up until now the regime has intimidated demonstrators with beatings, arrests, torture and executions. If the regime fears outside aggression, they will move to crush the opposition and that will mean tanks in the street.

If the Iranian regime concludes that war is inevitable, they may also conclude that the most viable strategy is a preemptive strike before the systems are operational. In any war, if you going to throw the first stone, it had better be a big one.

Technorati Tags: Iran,Israel