Everyone wins or maybe loses

2009 is a year of elections in the Middle East and the outcomes of these elections will have important implications for the Obama administration’s efforts to make progress towards reducing tensions and bringing peace and stability to the region.
The election season began with this week’s Israeli election which will be followed by elections in Iran, probably in Lebanon and perhaps in the Palestinian territories. The outcome of the Israeli election has produced more confusion than clarity. Both Tzipi Livni of Kadima and Binyamin Netanyahu of Likud have declared victory and they are both right.
Ms Livni declared victory because Kadima closed fast just before the election and finished with 28 Knesset seats to Likud’s 27. Netanyahu can also declare victory as he is much more likely to be able to put together a coalition of right wing parties than Livni will be able to create a center left coalition. The big winner is Avignor Lieberman, leader of the far right Yisrael Beiteinu party. With 15 seats he is now in the position to be a “king maker”.
Although he is talking to Kadima, it is unlikely that Kadima can sign up to enough of his policy positions, such as ethnically cleansing Israel of Arabs, dealing with Iran militarily, using the same solution for the Palestinian territories that the US used on Japan during WW II and executing Members of the Knesset who talk to Israel’s “enemies”, to attract him into a coalition. Even if Livni were able to navigate these treacherous waters, she would need to bring in the ultra-Orthodox religious parties or the Arabs, both of which she declined before the elections were called.
This leaves a Likud, YB, National Union, and ultra-Orthodox coalition led by Netanyahu as the most likely outcome. Given their positions opposing negotiations with the Palestinians, expanding settlements on the West Bank and addressing Iran militarily, the conventional wisdom is that this government poses big problems for Obama’s agenda.
Not everyone agrees, however. In November a moderate Israeli said to me, “My dream team for peace is Obama and Netanyahu. Netanyahu is so outrageous that even the Americans can’t support him. He should go back to selling furniture in Boston.”