This week the level of saber rattling over Iran’s nuclear program escalated dramatically. We have heard the saber rattling before as Senator McCain said that he would “bomb, bomb, bomb” Iran and Senator Clinton said that she would “obliterate” Iran. (See a couple of pictures of what would be obliterated) This, however, is campaign rhetoric and may not reflect current government policy.
This week, though, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz announced that an Israeli attack on Iran was “unavoidable” and if
Iran continued its nuclear program “we will attack it”. This isn’t just Israel talking as aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said following recent meetings with George Bush that the US and Israel are “forging a common view on Iran”.
My question about this sudden escalation is “why now”. Not much has happened on the Iranian side. They continue to enrich uranium and have refused to stop despite sanctions. The UN IAEA still has questions. Iran still insists that the program is peaceful.
The answer may lie with the US political calendar. The Israeli government has been concerned about Barak Obama’s less confrontive posture with Iran. With him now being the presumptive Democratic nominee and with polls showing him leading McCain, the Israelis may see this as their last chance to attack Iran.
If you are Iran, what do you do? Do you sit quietly by and wait for the bombs to fall or do you mount a preemptive strike of your own? Both carry risks, but peaceful options are fading. Provoking an Iranian first strike would make it unnecessary to make a case for war to the American people. This is beginning to sound like an inevitable march to war. George Bush’s last hurrah may be pretty ugly.
This week, though, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz announced that an Israeli attack on Iran was “unavoidable” and if
Iran continued its nuclear program “we will attack it”. This isn’t just Israel talking as aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said following recent meetings with George Bush that the US and Israel are “forging a common view on Iran”.My question about this sudden escalation is “why now”. Not much has happened on the Iranian side. They continue to enrich uranium and have refused to stop despite sanctions. The UN IAEA still has questions. Iran still insists that the program is peaceful.
The answer may lie with the US political calendar. The Israeli government has been concerned about Barak Obama’s less confrontive posture with Iran. With him now being the presumptive Democratic nominee and with polls showing him leading McCain, the Israelis may see this as their last chance to attack Iran.
If you are Iran, what do you do? Do you sit quietly by and wait for the bombs to fall or do you mount a preemptive strike of your own? Both carry risks, but peaceful options are fading. Provoking an Iranian first strike would make it unnecessary to make a case for war to the American people. This is beginning to sound like an inevitable march to war. George Bush’s last hurrah may be pretty ugly.
1 comment:
You make a good point!!
This is Is Israel's last chance and really only option. Then again If Israel takes action and does start a war that the USA would be forced into I don't think the American people would vote for Obama. I think they would feel safe having a Republican President that has 20 years Military Experience and McCain has shown that he is not hesitant to go to war. Like you said why now?? Political Calendar!! how convenient for McCain :(
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