Sanctions

As the world debates what to do about the Iranian nuclear development program, sanctions are the most frequently discussed weapon to be wheeled out in this battle. It seems as though sanctions are the weapon of choice when we are mad at someone, but not so mad as to have a war. This is not a new phenomenon as sanctions have been used for many years in this way. The questions are : “What is the outcome that we expect from imposing sanctions on a country with which we have a disagreement?” and “Is the expected outcome likely and desirable?”. During the Cold War with the USSR we imposed a wheat embargo on the Soviet Union and ended up punishing American farmers who lost one of their best customers. We also boycotted the Olympic Games in Moscow and ended up punishing a bunch of American athletes. The sanctions on Iraq during Sadaam Hussein’s regime impoverished ordinary Iraqis and enriched Sadaam and his cronies. Long running sanctions on North Korea have starved the peasants and have had no impact on the policies of the North Korean government. Do we expect that ordinary Iraqis and North Korean peasants will become angry and pick up their pitch forks and overthrow authoritarian governments supported by large well equipped armies? There are some examples of positive outcomes from sanctions. Sanctions may have an effect on democracies that have advanced economic systems that are well connected to the rest of the world. South Africa was such a case. Putting economic stress on the elite brought pressure for change. The sanctions did enrich some members of South African society as wealthy businessmen were able to purchase at fire sale prices the South African operations of international companies who pulled out. Sanctions would also most likely have an effect on Israel and lead to a behavior change, but that policy is not likely to happen. There are, however, de facto travel restrictions on military and political leaders of Israel who have been warned not to travel to Europe as they may be subject to arrest. There are numerous lawsuits in process in Europe against Israeli leaders for war crimes. Recently a retired Israeli army general could not get off his El Al flight in the UK for fear of arrest. Sanctions, however, will almost certainly not have much effect on Iran. They have an authoritarian government, lots of oil money, a very large customer, China, to support them and travel restrictions on the mullahs will probably not disturb them too much since they do not likely have plans for a European vacation. We perhaps should consider who we are punishing before we run out and initiate sanctions- ourselves, the poor, the elite, the government - might make a difference in our actions.