Last week U.S. government officials announced the indictment of a former used car salesman in Corpus Christi, Texas on charges of being the coordinator between the Iranian government and a Mexican drug cartel in a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., blow up Jewish synagogues and cause other attacks. As information on the alleged plot begins to trickle out, the whole event begins to sound more like an episode from the 1960’s spy genre spoof Get Smart than a serious threat. Unfortunately Manssor Arbabsiar, the alleged perpetrator, does not appear to have had his own Agent 99 to keep him organized. It looks to me as though this is another one of those “dangerous plots” that is announced with great fanfare and then gradually fades from media coverage and is dismissed for lack of credible evidence.
Whatever the outcome of this case, let’s assume that all of the allegations are true and this was a serious effort, controlled at the very top of the Iranian government, designed to result in a major attack on the U.S. and provoke a regional war with the western powers. What are the options for a U.S. response? To me, they appear pretty limited. President Obama has threatened additional sanctions. However, because of the U.S. led sanctions regime currently in place, Iran is already among the most isolated countries in the world. This state of affairs suits the hardliners in the Iranian government just fine as they have no interest in engaging with the west. The isolation also tends to insulate Iran from the financial contagion that is plaguing countries linked to the western financial system.
The hardline hawks, both within and outside of the U.S. government, who advocate military action have escalated their saber rattling, “all options are on the table” rhetoric following the announcement of the indictment. It is my view, however, that the Iranian strategy of asymmetrical deterrence is fairly effective. Rather than relying on conventional military capability for deterrence, Iran has engaged regional allies including political parties/militias such as Hezbollah and Hamas to threaten Israel and American troops deployed to the region They have succeeded in arming Hezbollah and Hamas to the extent that they pose a significant threat to Israel’s population centers. Pressure from Iran’s allies in Iraq has forced the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and Iran’s relationship with the Taliban and the Northern Alliance poses a similar threat to U.S forces in Afghanistan. The Quds Force, a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, “responsible for extraterritorial activities” is also deployed around the world.
President Obama is now in campaign mode and it is very unlikely that he will want to instigate another disastrous Middle East conflict just as he is trying to focus attention on domestic economic issues. That said, in this part of the world, anything is possible.
