When I was visiting the Persian Gulf region a few months ago, I had a conversation with a senior Middle East analyst at the State Department. I asked him why it is that when the professionals in the State Department understand the realities on the ground that United States policy in the region is so disconnected from reality. He replied that the job of the professionals was to provide analysis of the situation and policy recommendations, however, the policy makers are political appointees and therefore, policy decisions are generally based on domestic political considerations rather than reality on the ground. We have seen this dynamic play out in this week’s announcement of US policy in Afghanistan.
President Obama in his policy speech described the success of American counter-terrorism efforts and said that he planned to continue them. He said, “al Qaeda is under more pressure than at any time since 9/11”, “al Qaeda is under enormous strain”, and “we have put al Qaeda on a path to defeat and we will not relent…” Prior to the speech a senior administration official said that the government had not seen a “terrorist threat” from Afghanistan in seven or eight years. He also said that only 50 to 75 al Qaeda members remain in Afghanistan.
Obama also disavowed a counter- insurgency and nation building strategy saying, “We will not try to make Afghanistan a perfect place. We will not police its streets or patrol its mountains…That is the responsibility of the Afghan government…”
Given his counter-terrorism strategy, the extended withdrawal timeframe (extending at least through 2014) makes little sense tactically. A counter-terrorism approach could be implemented with drones and Special Forces, allowing an immediate large scale withdrawal. Politically, however, it makes a lot of sense. A significant withdrawal will occur right before the 2012 elections and the remaining withdrawals are extended over years. By walking the middle ground, as is his penchant, Obama inoculates himself against attacks by the doves who want a quick withdrawal and the hawks who want a continuation of a major military presence.
It remains to be seen how the Taliban will react. They operate on a long time horizon. I once heard author Greg Mortenson describe a Taliban plan to recruit the best and brightest young children from Afghan villages, indoctrinate them in Pakistani madrassas, send them back to the villages to marry four wives and have as many children as they can. That is a really long range plan. The Taliban use a saying, “You have the watch. We have the time.”
