Last week the Obama administration announced that it was giving up on its efforts to persuade the Israeli government to temporarily suspend settlement construction in the West Bank. (This story is here.) Faced with Israeli intransigence, despite much groveling and many carrots being offered, the weakened US government, faced with a bi-partisan “pro-Israel” Congress, decided to declare defeat and withdraw. This turn of events has been eloquently described by Jewish-American MIT professor Noam Chomsky.
“Washington’s pathetic capitulation to Israel while pleading for a meaningless three-month freeze on settlement expansion—excluding Arab East Jerusalem—should go down as one of the most humiliating moments in US diplomatic history.”
This leaves us to try and decipher “what now”. Of the options available, there are no good ones. The first and most likely option is the continuation of the status quo of “peace and apartheid”. The Israeli government has successfully separated Jewish and Arab residents of Palestine through a network of housing restrictions, walls, settler only roads and checkpoints. The US has recruited and trained a Palestinian security force that has taken over much of the occupation. Western aid supplies a source of funds which supports the bloated Palestinian Authority (PA) bureaucracy and allows senior figures to line their own pockets. Although some in Israel would like to expel all of the Arabs from Palestine, (The latest efforts are here and here.) the status quo seems to be reasonably stable in the short run. It does not, however, solve the larger problem of providing a fertile recruiting ground for violent radical groups bent on attacking the US and its allies.
One other alternative being discussed is a unilateral declaration of statehood by the PA based on the “1967 Green Line” followed by application for UN membership. There have been some informal moves in this direction as Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have recognized a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Others will likely follow. This step is largely symbolic as the chances of the super majority required in the UN General Assembly and Security Council for membership being achieved over the objections of the US are small.
A third, and probably most effective, alternative is to disband the illegitimate PA government and turn the whole mess over to the Israelis, forcing them into a violent and expensive direct reoccupation of Palestinian territory. PA President Mahmoud Abbas has long threatened to do this, but it has always proved to be empty rhetoric. The leadership has been unwilling to give up the perks of power. Eventually this change may come about as old age catches up with Abbas with no means to replace him. Hamas is the most likely candidate to fill the power vacuum.
Only time will tell what will happen. It may not be pretty.
