The Syrian Dilemma Part 2

After months of opposition demonstrations, counter demonstrations by regime supporters, attacks on opposition demonstrators by government forces, terrorist bombings of government facilities, various efforts at international intervention, charges and counter charges, the situation in Syria is in word a “mess”. Currently we have three wars going on in this strategically located, but fragile state. There is a low grade civil war between government and opposition forces. Overlaying this war is a proxy war between the US and its Gulf State and European allies and Iran and its allies. A third war has now emerged, a war of perceptions. As in many such wars, the facts are usually the first casualty.

The U.S. and its supporters in the conservative Sunni Gulf States, particularly Qatar and the UAE would like to see regime change in Syria and Iran and a weakening of the Shia resistance group Hezbollah. Under Secretary of State for the Near East Jeffery Feltman in describing US regime change policy in Syria said that the U.S. would “relentlessly pursue our two-track strategy of supporting the opposition and diplomatically and financially strangling the regime until that outcome is achieved”. (See here)

The Arab League has dispatched a monitoring team to Syria in order to attempt to reach a mediated solution. Qatar and the Istanbul based opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), on the other hand have criticized the Arab League mission and have pushed for western military intervention rather than a mediated solution that would reform the regime, but leave Assad in power.

The western media have portrayed the Syrian situation as one in which a peaceful opposition, representing the overwhelming majority of Syrians is faced off against a brutal, intransigent regime. However, a recent poll conducted by the Qatar based Doha Debates points out that while 81% of Arabs want President Assad to step down, 55% of Syrians are supportive of Assad and do not want Assad to resign. (See here) The respondents said that without Assad, they feared for the future of their country.

The appalling statistics of massacres, rapes of Sunni women and girls and torture by regime supporters that have been reported by the western media with the disclaimer “we were unable to confirm the accuracy of these figures” have been largely provided by the British based Syrian National Observatory. (SNO) The SNO is an arm of the SNC and is funded by a Dubai based pooled fund of western and Gulf money and thus the accuracy of these figures is suspect. Somehow the media has not managed to receive reports of casualties among regime supporters and military forces.

The U.S. based private intelligence group Stratfor has advised caution on the accuracy of the mainstream narrative on Syria saying “with two sides to every war … the war of perceptions in Syria is no exception”.

Technorati Tags: Syria,Arab League,Middle East

A New Threat to the Israeli Occupation

Three years ago in Damascus, when I met with Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas’ political wing, he acknowledged that Hamas was committed to violent resistance to the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands. While emphasizing that if Israel withdrew to the 1967 borders the resistance would end, he said that violent resistance was the only effective means of ending Israeli occupation. He used examples of Hezbollah ending the Israeli occupation in Lebanon, of the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and of the Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai.
Many observers of the situation in Israel/Palestine (this one included) have felt that, given the overwhelming power of the Israeli occupation force, the biggest threat to the occupation would be mass non-violent protests by the Palestinians on both sides of the green line separating Israel from the West Bank. The effectiveness of Dr. Martin Luther King’s demonstrations for African American civil rights and the Arab Awakening uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia demonstrate this. While there have been demonstrations against the Separation Barrier in the West Bank towns of Biliin, Ni’lin and Qalqilya, they have never been large enough to attract much international media attention despite the violent response by the Israeli Army (IDF).
Waging a mass non-violent campaign requires a lot of education and organization. The Fatah led PLO has never had the organizational ability to achieve an effective campaign of mass non-violent resistance. Hamas, on the other hand, through its extensive network in the mosques, has had the ability, but not the will.
The winds of change, however, may be blowing. In the past month, Hamas and Fatah have agreed to move forward with a unity government and to move toward a posture of mass non-violent resistance. (This story is here, here and here.) If this transition comes about it will pose a significant threat to Israel’s ongoing occupation and settlement building. Images of Israeli forces and settlers attacking unarmed demonstrators marching on Jewish only roads on the West Bank and chanting silmiya, silmiya (peaceful, peaceful) will not play well in the international media.
Only time will tell if the Palestinian leadership can pull off this change in tactics. There will certainly be resistance from those groups committed to violence. However, if mass non-violent protests can be effectively implemented, they have the potential to be a game changer.
A regional war with Iran would also be a game changer, but that is another story.
(Photo from Hamas Press Office)

Technorati Tags: Israel,Palestine,Hamas